The General Tennis Thread

Discussion in 'Sports' started by kidbourbon, Oct 24, 2011.

  1. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

  2. LawVol13

    LawVol13 Chieftain

  3. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    It was the type of beating where there had to be something going on. Nadal beat that ass, and Nadal played well, but I think the grandfather thing played into it.
     
  4. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

  5. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    And Serena won emphatically.

    And I'd bang her.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    All three former Vols are doing fairly well. The rankings don't look impressive, but they've been steadily climbing from in the 500s. Rhyne has been playing challengers whereas Tennys and JP have been playing futures. Challengers are tougher than futures. Also, Rhyne made it into the main draw of a Master Series 1000. He lost in the first round, but that is still impressive. Tennys and JP will have to start playing Challengers if they want their ranking to keep going up. At some point, Futures aren't going to be giving them enough points. It's of course a trade off between winning a futures event and getting 12 points vs. trying to get 27 or whatever points from a challenger vs. losing in the Challenger and only getting 9 points or something. But at some point, if these guys want to be players, they gotta start playing bigger tournaments.

    I would have told you 9 or so months ago that Rhyne would be well ahead of Tennys and JP, but the latter two have been doing pretty well. JP, in particular, will have a fine career as a doubles specialist if the singles thing doesn't work out for him.

    Rhyne Williams
    Singles: 296 (+37)
    Doubles: 391 (+5)
    Note: Cracked the top 300 for the first time in his career after reaching the quarterfinals of the Rome 2 Challenger ... Playing a $10,000 Futures this week in Spain.

    John-Patrick Smith
    Singles: 300 (+36)
    Doubles: 170 (+12)
    Note: Ranked in the top 300 for the first time too after sweeping the singles and doubles titles two weeks ago at Vero Beach, Fla. ... Reached doubles final last week at the Orange Park (Fla.) Futures ... Off this week.

    Tennys Sandgren
    Singles: 338 (+11)
    Doubles: 335 (-2)
    Note: Points added for semifinal appearance at the Vero Beach (Fla.) Futures ... Reached singles final last week at the Orange Park (Fla.) Futures ... Playing this week at the Tampa (Fla.) Futures, also a $10,000 Futures event.
     
  7. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

  8. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    On March 26, I put in a bet on tennis. My first one ever, and just for kicks and giggles. Here is how I have done since then:*

    • 4 match parlay with fed, ferrer, delpo, djoker. (risk 100 to win 50): (W) +50
    • 25 Roddick at +900: (W) +225**
    • 30 Delpo at -220 (W) +30
    • Parlay Murray and Rafa (risk 130 to win 99): (W) +99
    • 25 Tsonga at +190 (W) +25
    • 50 Djoker at -500 (W) +50
    • 25 Djoker at -250 (w) +25
    • 50 Rafa at -145 (W) +50
    • 30 Ferrer at -250 (W) +30
    • 50 Youzhny at -325 (W) +50
    • 50 Baghdatis at -110 (L) -55
    • 50 Azarenka at -220 (W) +50
    • 50 Serena at -185 (W) +50
    • 50 Ferrer at -450 (W) +50
    • 3 match parlay with Serena, Djoker, and Gilles Simon (risk 200 to win 40): (W) +40
    • 50 Delpo at -360 (W) +50
    • 30 Isner at -170 (L) -51

    I'm liking this tennis betting thing.

    _____________________
    *When I write, say, 50 delpo at -300, that means I am risking 150 to win 50.
    **I loved this extra because I don't like Federer.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2012
  9. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    Rafa gets an OBSCENE amount of respect from Vegas on clay. Look at today's line:

    Florian Mayer +3000
    Rafa Nadal -6000

    For perspective, if paired up with the same opponent Federer would be at most -2000 and Djoker would be at most -3000.

    So, if I wanted to bet on Rafa in today's match, I would have to risk $6,000 to make a hundred bucks. And just so y'all know, Florian Mayer isn't a scrub. He's ranked 28 in the world.
    Now, you may counter that this match is being played on red clay, and that Rafael Nadal simply doesn't lose on red clay. And I agree. BUT BUT BUT....let's say I put a hundred bucks on Rafa. And let's say Rafa is winning 6-2, 5-1, but then he pulls his hamstring and can't finish the match. I lose. I [uck fay]ing lose $6,000.

    Rafa's injury tendencies alone make a play against him -- in circumstances like this with really long odds -- a pretty sound play. Toss 25 on Mayer in hopes that Rafa gets injured and has to retire. I didn't do it, but maybe I should.
     
  10. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    Rafa vs. Djokovic in the finals of the Rome Masters.
     
  11. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

  12. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    The French Open is upon us. Who ya got?
     
  13. LawVol13

    LawVol13 Chieftain

    Gotta go with Nadal. I can't stand Joker, so I'm hoping to see Fed make the finals again and knock him off in the semis. But, there's no way in hell Fed goes through Joker and then Nadal on clay. Only chance he has is if one of them gets knocked off early on.
     
  14. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    Snowball's chance in hell of that unless The Great Great Rafa Nadal (TGGRN) gets hurt. When healthy, TGGRN and Djoke are just on a different level right now.

    Fed will walk through his next two matches without breaking a sweat. He'll then run up against Berdych in the quarters. That will be a really good match. Berdych is in fine form right now. I'm assuming Berdych will beat Del Potro. Del Potro is also in fine form, but he tweaked his knee in the first round, so that could be a problem in a five setter against a guy as good as Berdych.

    Novak basically is just walking through all the way to the semifinals. The toughest two guys in his quadrant are Verdasco and Simon. One could argue Tsonga, but I hate Tsonga and think he is a huge vagina.

    TGGRN has a potential test in the round of 16 against Raonic. Raonic is legit, and will be a fine player as he continues to develop. He has a puncher's chance against anybody, but I don't think he can beat TGGRN in a five setter on clay. TGGRN will just grind that ass out. And then if he wins that he'll walk through the quarterfinal match and then walk through the semifinal match against (likely) Ferrer. Ferrer is an excellent player, and one of the steadiest guys on the tour, but I don't think he can beat TGGRN.

    Perhaps I lack imagination, but I just don't see any way it plays out other than Djoke vs. TGGRN. And from that point, it's a touch call. I give the slight edge to TGGRN because he is coming in a little more confident, but that is definitely a match that Djokovic can win.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2012
  15. LawVol13

    LawVol13 Chieftain

    I would say that's the safe bet, but I think Fed is playing pretty close to their level overall. He's just not as good on clay as Nadal and never has been, but he has a better record than either Nadal or Joker since the US Open at 48-4, I believe. He also just annihilated Nadal at Indian Wells, which was the last time they played. But, Joker beat him up pretty well in Rome, but apparently Fed was battling a back issue and some fatigue, so I'm not sure how much stock we can put on that matchup.

    That's just a long-winded way of saying I think Fed's really, really close to both of them right now. Might be wishful thinking on my part, but I really believe that.
     
  16. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    TGGRN never does that well on the pre-clay-court-season hard court Masters tournament in the U.S. (Indian Wells and Miami). At that point, methinks he is just waiting for clay court season to start.

    I think you have to put some stock in the Rome matchup between Djoke and Fed. Fed certainly was more fatigued than Djoker, having won the tournament in Madrid. But if he meets Djoker in the semis, it isn't like he'll be completely fresh. I know that Fed beat Djoke last year in the semis, but I just don't know if I see it happening two years in a row.

    I also think you have to put some stock in the Rome matchup between TGGRN and Djoke, which is why I give the slight edge to TGGRN. I want TGGRN to get this FO so he can have one more than Borg and no idiot on this earth will ever be able to argue that Borg was a better clay court player. Djoke scares me though.

    FWIW, I think your boy Fed will win one of Wimbledon or the London Olympics. I tend to think he'll win the London Olympics since he needs that to complete the golden slam and will be really hungry for it. Also, because this prediction is consistent with my prediction that he won't win another major.

    I think it will go:
    French: TGGRN
    Wimby: Djoke
    Olympics: Fed
    U.S. Open: somebody not named TGGRN, Fed, or Djoke*


    *Bold prediction, I know. I probably wouldn't bet on this, to be fair.
     
  17. LawVol13

    LawVol13 Chieftain

    I'd say those are excellent predictions. As for Joker and Fed in the semis. Fed seems to play Joker better than Nadal for some reason. (not counting Nadal's recent string of success against Joker) Fed beat him at the FO last year and totally had Joker dead to rights last year at the US Open. I think Fed had him down two match points down and Joker hit a bullshit screamer that barely clipped the line to stay in the match. That's not to say that I think Fed should be favored to beat him; rather, I think Joker would have to be the favorite, but I'd put the odds at 60-40 Joker wins, maybe 55-45.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2012
  18. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    Fed does do better against Djoker. TGGRN is just kryptonite to Fed. That looping lefty forehand coming in high to Fed's one-handed backhand. I mean, you couldn't draw up a better way to exploit Fed's weakness.

    TGGRN doesn't have that same advantage against Djoker, because the looping lefty cross-court forehand comes into Djoker's backhand, which is unquestionably the best backhand in the game today (and maybe ever...it's him or Agassi).

    I don't know that Fed has any innate advantages against Djoker,* but it's just that Djoker doesn't neutralize his game like Nadal does, and so they play on a more even playing field.

    (1)
    I still give Djoker the edge over TGGRN right now on any surface but clay.

    (2)
    You can call it bullshit. I'll call it absolute brilliance. That's a ballsy play, and he executed it. That was one of those "I'm Keith Hernandez" moments.


    *Although I'm sure there are arguments that could be made.
     
  19. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    I give Fed a hard time because I think Fed is one of the most smug human beings on the planet, and that just isn't a quality that I find endearing. But there is a lot to say for Fed's level of play right now. He turns 31 in August and he is still unquestionably the third best player in the game, and there is more distance between him and the fourth best player than there is between Nadal and him. And for him to be nearly 31 and to still be very competitive with two players who will both go down as historical greats -- and who are 25 (djoker) and 26 (tggrn...he turns 26 in a couple days) -- is really impressive. I respect his skills a great deal, his smug -- and mostly the fact that nobody is ever willing to call him out on his smug -- just hits a nerve with me.
     
  20. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    Rhyne Williams is playing a futures event in Madrid this week and has been absolutely beating the [uck fay] out of guys. Like with the quickness.
     

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