The Indy Talks To Himself (NBA) Thread.

Can Reddish just can’t be the guy getting late minutes against the Nuggets. How is this team this poorly built?

 

https://x.com/murraybetta/status/1764126300443386279?s=46&t=-g4-4SHxx6dZ80rS7hnjTA

 

Steph just finished a 52 point blow out against the Celtics with 4 points.

LeBron’s most amazing record might be his, what is it now, 1,200 straight games with double digit scoring?

 

That one really is insane. KD is in second among active players with like 570.

 

So he’s what, 7 and a half full (82 game) seasons behind? And that’s if LeBron’s streak ends, which I can’t see happening soon. I don’t think KD would even play enough games if LeBron retired today.

I think James Harden is next after that, likely in the same situation (not enough games to catch him).

His total points and minutes records will be similarly outrageous by the time he hangs it up.

 

This is a wild aspect to James' scoring pace.

 

I saw something the other day about someone saying he’s got 4-5 good years left in him. There’s just no [uck fay]ing way that’s possible… right?

Right?

 

The graph I just posted suggests that there hasn't been any significant drop off in his entire career. Empirically.

 

I just assume he'll be averaging 27, 7 and 7 when he's like 58 at this point

 

The eye test tells you he has fallen off defensively, but it's more of a sustainability thing than a ceiling thing. His defensive ceiling has dropped to a degree, no question. But in small spurts, he can still give you elite defense against the best players in the league. He showed it last year guarding Jokic in the WCF (while injured). He showed it the other night guarding Kawhi in the 4th quarter. He can't do it for entire games or entire series like he used to, but he's still got that next level in spurts when he needs it. The challenge is that he can be a defensive liability when he's "resting" on that end now.

Offensively, he's still got it. Still gets to the rim as good as any player in the league. His shooting percentages are still ridiculous, and if the refs hadn't gotten together recently and agreed to stop sending him to the FT line, his scoring would be even more outrageous.

Still, it's hard to see 4-5 more "good" years. "Good" in this context was implied as top 20 or so player in the league - not a role player. His current year 21 numbers are better than the combined year 21 numbers from all the other greats who played that long. Vince Carter is the only player in NBA history who has played a 22nd season, and even that was 14 mpg for a garbage Hawks team. 4-5 more "good" years for LeBron would be a 25th and 26th season. He'd be what, 43 and 44? There's just no [uck fay]ing way.

 

Agreed on defense. I could see 25 seasons. At a certain point he needs to think about his quality of life and start backing off on the wear and tear to his knees and feet.

 

Him attacking less and settling for more 3s has something to do with this, IMO, but in general I agree with you

 

I can see 25 seasons. I can't see 25 seasons at his current level or one similar. But I also didn't expect him to be as good as he is now.

 

Ya, I am not saying he stays as good as he is now or has been. But I could see 25 meaningful seasons at a high level.

 

I disagree. He's currently shooting less 3's per game this season than any of his other seasons in LA.

He averaged 6 FT's per game in December and January, then averaged 4 per game in February without any significant changes to his shots per game.

He shot just 2 the other night against Denver (at home). I turned that game on with about 7 minutes left after the Bama game ended.

6:13 - makes driving layup

5:37 - misses driving layup

4:11 - makes driving layup

3:22 - lost ball turnover on a drive (wanted it off Denver)

0:53 - makes driving layup

He's still getting to the rim plenty. Lakers shot their last free throw of the game at the 7:47 mark of the 4th quarter. They've shot more FT's than anyone else (by a wide margin, I believe) this season, but part of the reason for that is how they attack and get inside. And it has definitely felt like they've been shooting less FT's as of late. Even AD had a driving layup at the 2:15 mark that looked like it could have easily been called a foul (they ruled it a block and played on).

 

The Lakers have been a super weird team this season and last. I don't think people talk about LeBron's injury enough when looking at the team's results from last season. There's no doubt in my mind, after seeing what he looks like this season vs. what he looked like at the end of last season, that LeBron was playing through a significant injury in the playoffs. I don't know if they would have beaten the Nuggets, mostly because Jokic and Murray were just otherworldly with their clutch (and often pure trash) 3 point shooting in that series, but I definitely think the Lakers would have given them a run for their money with a healthy LeBron.

So then you get to this season and you think "Okay, health LeBron, so they should be a contender." AD and LeBron have both played almost the entire season, so you'd expect to see them as a top 1-4 seed, based on last year's results. Yet they find themselves in the... 10th seed? It just doesn't make much sense.

I think some of it is missing Dennis Schroder. They haven't gotten anything out of his replacement, Gabe Vincent, due to injury. Jarred Vanderbilt has missed half the season with injury. He's not amazing, but he's a solid rotational piece and a great defender. Rui has also missed some significant time. You just can't contend when Taurean Prince and Cam Reddish are 2 of your first guys off the bench.

And then there's the Darvin Ham factor. Even when Rui has been available, Ham hasn't played him as much as he should. The man is head over heels in love with Taurean Prince for some reason, despite the fact that Prince just doesn't deserve the minutes he has gotten. And I think Ham's weird lineup moves caused a lot of the inconsistency we saw from Reaves and DLo early in the season.

 

Which is all much more than he shot before LA. In 2016, for example, 46% of his shots were within 0-3 feet of the rim and 20% were 3s. Now it's 33% at the rim and 30% 3s, and for each of the last 3 years he actually shot MORE 3s than shots at the rim.

LA is the first time 3s have made up 30% of his shots, and it's happened every year in LA, and that's when his free throw attempts have been down.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

 

But I'm not complaining about his FT attempts being down since he moved to LA. I'm complaining about this particular season, and, more specifically, the past month or so of this season.

Unless you're going to show me that 3-point shots have made up an even higher percentage of his total shots over the last month or so, leading to less FT attempts over the last month or so, I'm not sure who you are even arguing with.

Since the All-Star break, Bron has shot 14 FT's in regulation of 5 games. That's 2.8 attempts per game, well below his average for this season, his career, his time with the Lakers, whatever period you want to look at. In those same games, he has taken 106 total FG attempts with 31 of them being 3's. So 29% of his shots have been 3's. So if he is taking roughly the same number of 3's as he has his entire time in LA, why are his FT attempts so low?

 

In fairness, your original post said "recently," which when discussing a 20-year career could mean the last couple of years just as easily as the last few weeks. His FTs are down over the last couple of years, but a lot of that likely has to do with settling for 3s more, which is shown in the numbers. I honestly don't care very much about analyzing "since the All-Star break" which as you said is a 5-game sample

 

That’s fine, I can see that. Hard to make a case for recently being his 6 years in LA though.

The 5 game sample just highlights it even further. His FT’s are down over the last month or so (which I said multiple times), and it’s been impacting key games late.