the great thing about basketball is how much easier it is to recruit talent than football imo, iyam, jmho, tifwiw. The first two seasons are going to be difficult to recruit yes, especially this season, where it's going to be all but impossible. If he can land a couple of smart, disciplined players that can give future stars a foundation, I think he can be successful. Basically it comes down to him landing one star player by his third year with these disciplined players playing bit roles from there on out. Once they get one star, it's a lot easier to get two more and then he'll be set.
I have no idea if he can pull it off and no matter how badly he does at recruiting this season, I don't think it will be indicative of how he will recruit by season 3. This year will be a total wash recruiting wise, he can only look good imo by stealing a couple of players he has no business landing right now.
His biggest obstacle will be impressing whoever finally gets tabbed as UT's new AD so that the new AD gives him four years to show something. The wrong AD could have an itchy trigger finger and fire him and Dooley before they can ever really get started. That's a serious fear of mine.