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    by Published on 02-05-2015 04:06 PM  Number of Views: 18 

    I believe that the following are reasonable means to establish fair expectations (others may disagree):

    1. Tennessee will WIN those games:

    a. Where they are FAVORED to win, and they are playing at HOME.
    b. Where there is an EQUAL chance to win / lose, and they are playing at HOME.
    c. Where they are FAVORED to win, and they are playing AWAY.

    2. Tennessee will SPLIT those games:

    a. Where there is an EQUAL chance to win / lose, and they are playing HOME orAWAY.
    b. Where they are the UNDERDOG to win, and they are playing at HOME orAWAY.

    If you agree, and share these beliefs, then the following seems to be an entirely reasonable expectation for next season:

    Next Year's Schedule / Predicted Results:

    Date Opp. @ Odds - WIN Odds - LOSS Final Prediction Record to Date
    9/5 Bowling Green Home 90% 10% WIN 1-0
    9/12 Oklahoma Home 50% 50% WIN 2-0
    9/19 W. Carolina Home 90% 10% WIN 3-0
    9/26 Florida Away 60% 40% WIN 4-0
    10/3 Arkansas Home 60% 40% WIN 5-0
    10/10 Georgia Home 50% 50% WIN 6-0
    10/17 BYE - - - - 6-0
    10/24 Alabama Away 30% 70% LOSS 6-1
    10/31 Kentucky Away 80% 20% WIN 7-1
    11/7 South Carolina Home 70% 30% WIN 8-1
    11/14 North Texas Home 95% 5% WIN 9-1
    11/21 Missouri Away 50% 50% LOSS 9-2
    11/28 Vanderbilt Home 80% 20% WIN 10-2
    01/16 Bowl Game Neutral 50% 50% WIN 11-2


    And, if you want to break the season down by the odds (e.g. Favored, Even, Underdog):

    Type Games # Games % All Games Predicted Record Winning %
    FAVORED 8 61% 8-0 100%
    EVEN 4 31% 3-1 75%
    UNDERDOG 1 8% 0-1 0%
    ALL 13 100% 11-2 85%


    Or, if you want to look at it by Location (e.g. Home, Away, Neutral)

    Type Games # Games % All Games Predicted Record Winning %
    Home 8 61% 8-0 100%
    Away 4 31% 2-2 50%
    Neutral 1 8% 1-0 100%
    ALL 13 100% 11-2 85%


    Just my $.02
    by Published on 09-01-2014 01:34 AM   

    Alright fellow Volunteers, here is how I see things as of now.

    Based on the limited information of one week of college football, the perception of teams of the SEC fall into three tiers:


    The Gentry

    The gentry class teams include the perennially powdered Alabama and LSU, scandalously underachieving Georgia, and defending conference champion Auburn. Note that since there are three of these teams in the West, at least one of them is going to lose some luster by the end of the season. But remember, the West's upper crust may tear each other down but they'll still have money and you'll still be Appalachian.

    Transitioning into this tier are debutantes Texas A&M and Mississippi State. ...

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