In the same position in 2006, Tennessee does NOT fire Mike Shula. When I say 'same position,' I mean consider the sanctions and the fact that he's an alum.
I would say true. No way Tennessee fires a coach after 2 straight bowl games, especially when one of those seasons had double digit wins. Did Shula get an extension and raise after 2005? We sure as hell would have given him one.
If this hypothetical version of Shula coached Tennessee right now and had a ten win season he would be an orange overall God with children named after him. Hell no he wouldn't be fired. The standards at UT are much lower than they were a decade ago. In 2006, he'd probably still be given more time.
Butch has the kind of season Shula had in 2005 and we'd fall all over ourselves, outside interest in Butch or no, to give him a raise and extension that would make Harbaugh and Saban look like high school coaches. He's probably follow it up with a 4-8 season.