COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

I'm not talking down to you right now. I would just recommend taking the time to read about why people are being asked to limit their exposure to others.[/QUOTE]

Yet grocery stores have more people there in an hour than i will see in a week with the family. Which is more likey to result in transmission?

 

Thanks - I don't think there's a right answer in all of this. I try to have at least 3-4 months in the bank as a cushion at all times so for that I'm fairly fortunate. But I always look ahead and know that if this thing shuts everything down for 30-60 days I can burn through those reserves in 4 months with no more income coming in. From the time I meet a client the average turn around time on a sale - for the one's who actually stick with it - is about 60-90 days when you factor in finding a home and then going through a loan process.

I had 5 active buyers in my hopper that I estimated would close in May. Now those 5 are down to 0 for the time being. And the phones sure haven't rang this week and I don't expect them to for awhile.

I feel awful for the people who literally live paycheck to paycheck. If we go on this quarantine I don't know how some people will make it. I've got friends who own restaurants and other small businesses that probably can't survive a prolonged shutdown. Shows just what kind of edge we truly live on.

 

I dont think you can trust your numbers for the likely fact that hundreds of 1000s are likely walking around with it and have been. Your rates are based on only those tested and we have zero idea what % of people have it who havent been tested.

 

Between the tornado, this virus and Spring Break, I will probably have taught 4 days, mayyyybee more if they decide to throw caution to the wind and open back up on the 23rd. I am super fortunate to have a job which pays the same pretty much all year round, though, and I feel for those who don't, particularly in my still rebuilding neighborhood here. But, within my work, I still have great concerns about how this will affect kids in yet unknown ways.

For instance, I have AP kids who will take their test on May 8th. They are in no way prepared for it and they can get 6 credit hours for college from this one class, much less others. I coach for a track team who has won three state titles on the girls side. Do they get to run this year and display their talent for scholarships? A couple are much improved and could get free college, if they have the chance to run/jump. And on and on.

Now, obviously, these issues are not as important as living or dying, but the ramifications of what is going to happen the next few weeks could be affecting people in ways we didn't even consider, healthy young people included.

 

Then it’s R0 is even higher.

 

Factual data for the H1N1 (Swine flu).

According to a CDC estimate, there were more than 60 million swine flu cases reported in the U.S. between April 2009 — when the disease was first detected in California — and April 2010, with more than 12,000 people dying.

The agency said the first case was reported on April 15, 2009, and the government declared H1N1 a public health emergency on the April 26. The first test to detect the new virus was approved by the FDA two days later. Shipments of the new CDC test began May 1.

 

Campbell county has a confirmed case now

 

Alabama closing K-12 schools starting Wednesday. Giving people Monday and Tuesday to figure out arrangements for kids, but I expect schools to be a ghost town.

 

Said another way....

Consider a thought experiment where there are two strains of CV. The first strain has an R0 of 2-3 and a fatality rate of 2-3%. The second strain has an even higher R0 (there are many many more people with it) but a near-zero fatality rate and very few symptoms.

Let’s now say that we classify both strains together as CV. Now, the mortality rate drops dramatically because of all of those seemingly healthy people don’t die. That’s great on the surface - CV isn’t that deadly.

But then if we revisit the thought experiment, the first strain is still out there doubling every 3 or so days (which an R0 of 2-3 corresponds to) and ultimately killing 2-3% of the people that are infected (generic across all demographics).

So from an epidemiology standpoint are we any better off in this scenario you paint that all these infected people that are asymptomatic make the actual numbers better? The answer is no.

 

So how much toilet paper do I purchase in that scenario?

 

All of it.

 

Can someone explain the toilet paper freak out to me? I don't get this.

 

I don’t know what started the run - what the logic was - but once it is reported that there is a run then you go out and buy in advance not because you fear not having TP of acV strikes - you just fear not being able to buy TP the next time you need it because of the other idiots. Now everyone is running on TP.

 

Apparently Tennessee department of education doesn’t want schools to close unless there’s a confirmed case in a school and then only for 3-5 days.

Only “extended” closures for multiple cases in a school.

 

Well, our church is going online only this week. We shall see what happens in the weeks to come.

 

I’m pretty worried about how my socioeconomic status is going to fall once the US crumbles and then we society uses toilet paper as currency.

 

We did the same. I do the media so I’ll still be there.

 

What does the music look like for that?

 

This does not seem like a wise decision at the present moment.

 

You guys are crazy that think TP is the currency.

Way to light and easy to steal. Not enough heat when burned.

Tires will be the future currency. Guarantee it.