COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by IP, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Wanted to? He did close the borders with China and I don't recall anyone saying it was racist.
     
  2. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    I honestly think it was some in the media doing their clickbait/view bait thing and politicians that only know how to make things political. It never entered my mind as being racist or even xenophobic. You can roll the tape on me but I don’t think you’ll see me complaining at all.
     
  3. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    I'm hoping it is, but it sounds more and more like it's not. Steady 100.6 fever and breathing issues.
     
  4. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    Pushing 400 deaths now. The part which has me worried is if the severe uptick in cases the last 3-4 days mean a week from now we'll have days of over 1,000 deaths. Plus, I wonder how this thing will look as it really begins to hit the secondary cities.
     
  5. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Unless treatments somehow turn us around we will be over 1000 deaths a day by next week I think.

    There is a serious backward-looking effect with deaths.

    Disclaimer: Worthless armchair epidemiology below....


    The people dying now were infected roughly 2.5-3 weeks ago. If this truly does have a 0.8% mortality rate, that means we were seeing about 35-40k new infections a day at that point, which would mean about 150k infections at that point if they grow at 25% a day. A week after that we would have had about 600k cases and 150k new infections a day. That would mean about 1,200 new deaths a day next week.

    This would put us at roughly 1.2 million cases the week after 600k cases(which is roughly early to middle of last week) with new infections of as many as 250k-300k a day (but social distancing was likely beginning to have an effect by that point). If those numbers carry through we’d be looking at 2,200 deaths a day by the week after next if you don’t saturate hospitals and increase the inherent mortality rate.
     
  6. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    Turkey may be in some major trouble

     
  7. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

    India still surprises me. I've been waiting for that place to explode, as it seems they are ripe in every way for an epidemic such as this one, yet it maintains a low level. I suppose there is an argument for it being tropical, however, if Singapore and Hong Kong are experiencing a rise, then that theory doesn't seem to hold much water.
     
  8. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    Same. I keep expecting that line to turn straight up. But, then again, how many there could have major symptoms and not be counted? Plus, read a few things where they are cracking down hard.
     
  9. A-Smith

    A-Smith Chieftain

    I don’t see how you can lock down a country where about 500 million plus people live hand to mouth.
     
  10. A-Smith

    A-Smith Chieftain

    Droski, card, etc. can the US refinance the national debt right now with the Fed given such low interest rates? Is there a limit to how much of our debt we can refinance? Been a long time since my last macro class.
     
  11. Unimane

    Unimane Kill "The Caucasian"

  12. hohenfelsvol

    hohenfelsvol Beer run

    Talked with my German niece tonight. Test is Germany are taking about three days.
     
  13. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    I heard someone say that tests here have moved from about 5 days down to 3 now.
     
  14. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

    FDA just approved a 15 minute test. Will be producing 50k a day this upcoming week. There's still concern about having the resources necessary to administer these tests, though.
     
  15. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Isn’t it like a 5 min positive test? That’s awesome.
     
  16. kmf600

    kmf600 Energy vampire

    Screenshot_20200328-054642_Instagram.jpg

    This is cute. This person hates people because they are doing the same thing she is doing. I hate people too.
     
    warhammer, Volst53, SetVol13 and 4 others like this.
  17. Tenacious D

    Tenacious D The law is of supreme importance, or no importance

    L-O-L.
     
  18. Oldvol75

    Oldvol75 Super Bigfoot Guru Mod

  19. A-Smith

    A-Smith Chieftain

    Did some reading. I figured there was a catch. Turns out there are several.

    1) It is basically already a big part of the Treasury's job description to already be minimizing the interest on our debt.
    2) There is a definite limit to what we can do with this kind of manipulation.
     
  20. DownNDirty

    DownNDirty Contributor

    I can tell you one small way all of this will already affect some things. FHA has just changed their baseline credit scores again, significantly rising back to 640 minimum scores for homebuyers. Also, some of the underwriting requirements are changing drastically to approve home loans. Some products now are going to require buyers to have a minimum of 6 months of reserves in their bank accounts. Lending is going to be very tight going forward for the foreseeable future and in my line of work (selling homes) this is going to knock thousands of people out of qualification status right now.

    May be a very bumpy ride. I knew this whole deal was going to have me struggling in 2020 to hold serve and hope 2021 will improve again but now I'm even getting concerned that people in real estate are in for a very rude awakening.
     

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