COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by IP, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. warhammer

    warhammer Chieftain

    Maybe they are channeling their inner bammer on the dentist thing, not so essential.
     
  2. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    What’s the guidance? N95s and face shields?
     
  3. warhammer

    warhammer Chieftain

  4. kptvol

    kptvol Super Moderator

    So they still say emergency procedures only.

    Negative pressure rooms for suspected COVID-19 cases. I’m sure they are getting right on that.

    It seems to me that an N95 mask with a face shield to prevent it from being soiled so that it can be reused would be the most practical path back to normal business. If you aren’t going to allow that, I don’t see how you ever allow them to open back up in maybe in 2020. Which means, I guess every dentist will be out of business.
     
  5. warhammer

    warhammer Chieftain

    Pretty much. Like I said, most places probably can't meet the recommendations.
     
  6. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    My sister works in a dental office. They were going to start calling patients back for Monday until the dentist heard an association was asking them to wait because the PPE they needed to restart was still being reserved for front-line medical workers. I have no idea if that played into the governors decision or if a week solves that, but that’s how they acted (prior to the governor’s order).
     
  7. A-Smith

    A-Smith Chieftain

    For now, yes. Eating out isn't a big part of my life anyway with two toddlers. I want to visit my parents and grandparents with the kids so I'm going to do what I have to do within reason. I do not think that outdoor recreation should have ever been limited and will be glad to to get out to mountains, lakes, parks, etc. when I get the chance. I will go back to church when it reopens.
     
  8. Oldvol75

    Oldvol75 Super Bigfoot Guru Mod

    North and South Korea will become one. A democracy.
     
  9. lumberjack4

    lumberjack4 Chieftain

    Bama dentists are opening on Monday.
     
  10. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    I bet tooth cleaning visits go fast
     
  11. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    All 2 of them?
     
  12. lumberjack4

    lumberjack4 Chieftain

    It's not for the faint at heart.
     
  13. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

    Cleaning? Their signs in the office only say this:

    ------------------------------------------------
    Tooth Pullings $5 a tooth
    Don't forget your punch card, as every 5th tooth is free!
    -----------------------------------------------
     
    InVolNerable and Ssmiff like this.
  14. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    On the topic of Sweden and their approach vs. the US (and many/most other countries).....


    I was looking at data this morning.


    Apologies for the spacing below...doesn't show up right.


    Stockholm County Davidson County

    Population 2.4 MM 0.7 MM

    Pop Density 1357 945

    Cases 8,033 2,338

    Cases/100k 335 334

    Daily Testing/100k* 28 128

    % Positive* 19% 7%

    Deaths 1406 25

    Deaths/100k 59 3.6


    *For Stockholm County, testing statistics are at a national level. For Davidson County, testing statistics are from Tennessee. Note that since the beginning of April, daily tests in Sweden have almost doubled while the daily percent positive has more than doubled. Nationally, Sweden has tested about 60% of what the US is nationally (per capita cumulative).


    If you assume a mortality rate of 0.6%, then it is more likely that Davidson County has had 4,200 cases (meaning undiagnosed would be 2x the number of cases). While Tennessee is doing some of the best testing in the country, I think that number could be higher than just 2x. This would mean just 1% of the people have had it. Again, if 2x is too small maybe that is more like 3%. In Stockholm County, the deaths suggest cases might be more like 234,000 (which is incredibly high vs. their confirmed cases - but either the death rate is higher than .6% or their undiagnosed cases are very high) - which would be 10% of the population. If the death rate is more like .2%, then this would be more like 30% of the population. Either way - they probably have about 2-6x more deaths to go.


    You would expect CV to have a R0 about 20% higher in Stockholm County vs. Davidson County given the population density differences. So without quarantine it would spread somewhat faster. For example, if doubling time were every 3 days in Davidson, it would be 2.5 in Stockholm County. So, different - but to me, these differences in deaths clearly indicate the advantages of social distancing in slowing the death rate. Of course, the question is what rate of hospitalization and deaths can you handle. What are the benefits of slowing? Will everyone get it anyway? All fair questions from a public health perspective.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2020
  15. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

    It's so tough to try and make that call now. If we get to the end of June and we have some type of therapeutic drug that reduces deaths by 10-15%, will Sweden be glad they were lax with their measures? I ask that without judgment, but these are the potential tradeoffs we're talking about.

    Regardless, I think I'll always believe that we needed the initial lockdown to ramp up production of tests and medical supplies. And our various govts needed time to figure out wtf to do.
     
  16. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Ya, I think there is a difference between risk and outcome. The next bug may not work out as neatly, even if this one does.
     
  17. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    There is definitely an unknown to it. If a vaccine arrives by September (I don't think it will) or better treatments arrive now through summer, then the benefits of the lockdown will be massive. If those never come or come by next summer, then differences might not be that big.
     
    justingroves likes this.
  18. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    So about 1/4 of my FB friends say they had the China Flu in November/December.

    Is there so much as a single shred of evidence to suggest this other than doctors couldn't diagnose exactly what they had.
     
  19. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    No. Simple as that. It is wishful thinking.
     
  20. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    Just wanted to verify this.
     

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