COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by IP, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    The death rate is lower, but if a large enough number are affected, the number of deaths won't change.

    10% of 100,000 is equal to 1% of 1,000,000

    Younger people are able to better withstand the infection, but still capable of dying.
     
  2. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    Why is he now suggesting reopening schools when we are at a "critical" stage and may see 100k new cases per day according to him, whereas he wasnt ready to move that direction 4-5 weeks ago before the huge spike?
     
  3. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Fauci has said it should be up to each community. So communities not seeing massive
    spread are different from communities seeing massive spread. It isn't a one size fits all approach. And it is based on kids seeing, at the present, milder infections. Meaning the kids should be fairly protected, and parents of kids should continue to take caution, ie: continue to social distance, quarantine if positive, don't go to school or work if sick.

    This hasn't changed. I'll quote him recently, and early last month (4 or so weeks ago). So I don't see where you are seeing a difference. You'd need to show me. Here is me showing no difference over last 4 or so weeks.

    To quote him, 4 or so weeks ago:

    From: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...auci-schools-reopening-coronavirus/index.html

    Recently:

    From: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nb...i-talks-about-re-opening-schools/2356936/?amp
     
    IP likes this.
  4. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    I think we all agree that about 50% are young people who won't be impacted as negatively. There is disagreement beyond that.

    I am saying I expect 1,000 or more deaths a day again by the end of this month, and will eat crow if I am wrong. There is a lag effect to the deaths that is not being appreciated, imo. And the numbers are big such that 50% of a lot is still a lot. Those young people are coming in contact with other people who are not young. I may be wrong, and overly pessimistic. I hope so. I just think the low deaths in June are due to lower cases in late May.
     
  5. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

    Lots of conflicting factors, IMO.

    I agree that spread is mostly among younger folks, so death rate will be lower. I also think that protecting the vulnerable is much easier when community spread isn't out of control. I'd like to think our behavior will change if numbers sharply rise even more, but we'll see.

    Ultimately, I think we could see resource strain, but not approaching NYC levels again. Just a guess.
     
  6. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Hopefully the problem is never so acute as it was in NYC.
     
  7. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Tennessee has twice the infections as Mississippi and half the deaths.

    Using deaths is an odd way to determine control. We should just work to stop infections.
     
  8. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Evaluating on deaths rather than infections leads to more deaths, imo. And we are about to see it (IMO).
     
  9. Beechervol

    Beechervol Super Moderator

    Have there been any studies done on reinfection levels?
     
  10. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    A few, but a lot of them are done too soon to the most recent infection (since that's all we have) to be really useful. Meaning, are they picking up actual re-infection, or just continuing to find "dead" virus from the previous infection?

    There just hasn't been a lot of time between initial and "re."
     
  11. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    I think that what we are seeing now very likely happened in Feb/March. You had a large growth in cases amongst the most mobile that we’re going out to bars, etc. However it went largely undetected because they weren’t showing up in hospitals and we weren’t testing asymptomatic people. However, once enough young people get it, the older population that is less mobile will get it. And deaths will come. Older people are being more careful now than in March because the risk is clearer but not careful enough to fully avoid. So I do expect deaths to go up. But it will be a slower ramp because the big population centers already burned through a lot of their susceptible.

    We’ll see if that’s how it plays out.
     
    Volst53 likes this.
  12. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    My opinions on Fauci:

    -He wasn’t clear back in Feb in saying what we needed to worry about was fly not CV. His point was we don’t have an epidemic here. He was probably wrong. But we were blind to it due to asymptomatic spread. IMO, he should have focused more on the importance of keeping it from getting here than in downplaying the risk it posed at that time.

    -His position on masks in March was very nuanced and he didn’t communicate as clearly as he should have. He basically downplayed how much masks can help because
    1) you still need to social distance and
    2)we should reserve masks for the sick and medical personnel

    While he made those points he also basically said “everyone doesn’t need to be walking around in masks” followed by “there’s places where 85% of people do it. Fine. I’m fine with that. It doesn’t hurt”. The increased importance of pre-symptomatic spread has caused him to move more to a “it’s necessary” view. I don’t think his earlier comments were made to mislead people so we saved masks for those who need it most as much as new evidence led him to realize it was more important than he thought. He’s not superhuman. The advice early was reasonable and his advice now is reasonable. I knocked him around for this at one point but once I went back and looked more carefully I think i see what happened.

    On deaths, I think ssmif is conflating forecasts from a lot of different sources with Fauci. He isn’t modeling. In his defense, he said 100-2ook (along with Birx) in late March or early April. We are tracking well within that for wave 1. The initial modeling of 1-2 MM was not only for a scenario of no distancing it also used a fatality rate that was too high. Once the lancet paper came out in mid to late March that showed a iFR of 0.6%, he quickly started talking about 100-200k range which will prove to be reasonable.

    I don’t think he has been a rock star. I would have expected him to be a little more savvy when managing messages given his tenure in the public eye. But he has done fine.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
    Ssmiff likes this.
  13. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    I think a 4 month lag is a bit... long.
     
  14. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    No, he is saying that this level of infection among the young likely occurred 4 months ago as well, but was undetected because of the low number of tests and because they didn't end up in hospitals/have strong symptoms. In other words, this may be the same pattern as before rather than an escalation. That's how I took it.
     
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  15. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator


    Besides it’s the young being over of being locked down while higher risked groups are taking it more serious now that it’s not in the dark.
     
  16. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Ah, ok, that makes more sense.
     
  17. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain



    Just a small example, nothing definitive here.

    But I think we're more likely to see quick changes of behavior in areas where cases severely spike. I sincerely hope that's the case, people act rationally, and we're simply finding the best level of activity right now.
     
  18. Beechervol

    Beechervol Super Moderator

    I would think if reinfection was a big worry you would start to see that leaking out in numbers with recovereds testing positive again.
     
  19. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    Nashville streets were dead this morning.
    My youngest is at the pcb with another family and says its really crowded. He is all about 6 feet of space and would come home today if it wouldnt mean leaving his friend behind.
     
  20. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    No, I meant the same situation. An (unmeasured at the time) run up of infections in younger populations, which sparked a huge blow up. We are not at that blow up yet. I just meant that my concern is that this is the same type of precursor to what we expierenced in March/April, but we are in the phase that occurred in Feb/Mar. Active infections back in March/April were almost certainly MUCH higher than where we are today.
     

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