COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by IP, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    are they swimming it here
     
  2. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Waiting for the land bridge to re-form I think.
     
  3. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Excess deaths seem to be out-pacing COVID deaths again, which I suspect is because states that seem to have historically underreported COVID deaths (TX and FL being two of those) are now experiencing the highest deaths, causing the under-report to be highlighted vs. where we were a few months ago. I do my analysis using "All Deaths" metric; however, I have seen analysis using "Natural Deaths" analysis and it highlights many more natural deaths than normal (the excess natural deaths is 1.5x reported COVID deaths). Some of these are definitely explained by lockdown deaths back in March and April. But, it's hard to argue that is the case now - and Texas and Florida continue to rack of natural deaths not reported as COVID (many of these are assigned to a placeholder cause of death that's essentially called other undetermined causes. The deaths in that category are tens of thousands above average over the course of the pandemic, if I recall correctly. I haven't been doing my analysis using this - but I'm going to try to change it up and start looking at it because it is an interesting look. Basically Texas excess deaths are twice what they have reported as COVID. Florida about 160% what they have reported.

    upload_2020-8-6_10-12-12.png
     
  4. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

    Do you think that, as this thing is studied over the next 5-10 years, that a large portion of these deaths will ultimately be attributed to COVID or is it just unknowable now or ever?
     
  5. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    There will be an effort to model it out.

    There's no doubt that some of the excess death we saw wasn't COVID - but given how deaths are being coded in places like Texas and Florida, I also believe there is under-reporting of COVID deaths as well. That combination leads to the gap between total excess deaths and total reported COVID deaths.

    It is also possible as deaths dropped low back in May/June that COVID over-count became more of an issue...since we know that is happening as well.
     
  6. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Texas, in the last week or two, added 1500+ deaths by going off of death certificate.

    They may still be in catch up on that.
     
  7. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    There may be catch up. The excess death analysis is built off of death certificates as well. So I always have to apply lag adjustment to correct for that. But even after the death certificate is filed, there can be changes. For example, I do know that some states have gone through this "other undetermined causes" code on death certificates and changed it to COVID. But there are still tens of thousands of excess deaths sitting in it.
     
  8. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    If hospitalization rates got high, I am guessing the proportion of non-COVID excess deaths may have, counter-intuitively, increased. People avoiding going to the hospital, etc.
     
  9. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    I don't like excess deaths for anything more than establishing that something is going on outside of normal.

    Using it to establish the magnitude of abnormal is dangerous.
     
  10. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    TT is an idiot. Just dumb and bad with math and %s.
     
  11. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

  12. utvol0427

    utvol0427 Chieftain

    I don't understand this. If they were within 6 feet of a positive person for 10 minutes, those kids are free to continue coming to school, but 15 minutes puts them in the danger zone? Is there some science backing this up or is it their way of not having to quarantine half the school every time someone tests positive?
     
  13. InVolNerable

    InVolNerable Fark Master Flex

    You build a chair, but you don’t sit on it.
     
  14. kmf600

    kmf600 Energy vampire

    This is how my work justified not shutting our utility down. I guess 10 minutes is the CDC guidelines
     
  15. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    Not sure how 1 kid got within 6 feet of 100 people for any amount of minutes.

    So more likely, the kid got within 6 feet of one kid, and that kid got within 5 feet of other kids... etc.

    In other words, they didn't have pods.
     
  16. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Maybe it has something to do with that infectious dose concept, don't know. Or maybe it is so that they don't have to totally shut down every time a kid tests positive.
     
  17. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    I'm kind of curious how there were strict dress codes when I was in school, but governors now say masks are a "personal choice" that can't be enforced in schools... We had teachers checking the width of girls' shoulder straps and boys suspended for not having their t-shirts tucked in. Or shorts on girls that did not extend to their fingertips when their arms were at their sides. I was involved with trying to get these things relaxed or at least their enforcement changed, but was told tough toenails. But no masks in a pandemic-- that is a personal choice, but wearing a ball cap indoors or a guy wearing a sleeveless shirt is not a personal choice? Sandals are not a personal choice?

    Damn, people are petty and dumb.
     
  18. kmf600

    kmf600 Energy vampire

    We stopped enforcing rules about 15 years ago.
     
    justingroves likes this.
  19. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    that’s a district level decision.
     
  20. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    viral load with this disease is really important and is the reason for the exposure time scientifically.

    also why surface pick up of it is extremely low as well.

    and the reason some having a natural T cell response keeps the spread down as well.
     

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