They have trump behind like 6 or 7 points in Michigan. I think Trump wins Michigan. They have Texas, Georgia, and Iowa up as toss ups. I just don't think that's going to be the case.
so you think state polling is off. I don't think state polling was outside the margins of error very much in 2016.
Based upon everything I'm seeing, I have no reason to stray from all the things I've been saying this campaign cycle. 1. There are 42 million early votes already cast, way, way ahead of 2016, and far fewer undecideds in the polling than last cycle. So, my understanding most people have decided their vote and did a long time ago is, seemingly, bearing out. People know who is running and where they stand on the two candidates, for the most part. 2. Democratic enthusiasm is high, as was shown in 2018. There is a sense that apathy among Democrats was rampant in 2016 (Helped by an uninspiring candidate in Hillary) and there is a strong determination among Democrats to not let Trump win again. I can't emphasize that last point enough on the enthusiasm part. My anecdotal evidence going through my Democratic "channels" is the enthusiasm among Dems is at 2008 levels. They are licking their chops. 3. Trump has done nothing to expand his base, absolutely nothing. He will rack up votes among those groups he already had, particularly rural and non-college educated whites and they love the shit out of him. However, he won on the margins in a number of states in 2016, so, if Democratic enthusiasm is up, he needs to find more votes somewhere. 4. Polling being off is fairly wishful thinking, though, certainly possible. People point to 2016, but it wasn't as off as they remember. The national polling was spot on and most of the state polls were within the MoE, except Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Plus, many of the polls had high numbers of undecideds, which exit polling revealing those people broke hard for Trump. So, Clinton was up in terms of decided voters. Their one big miss on 2016 was measuring the slice of vote share for non-college white folks and that has been adjusted for 2020 (I actually think it will revert back to previous levels, but that's just a guess on my part). 5. The map is very tough for Trump and he's playing defense in places where he doesn't need to play defense, like Arizona, Ohio and Iowa. 6. Trump hasn't been able to define Biden negatively in a way he was for Hillary and he's not the plucky outsider anymore. He's a dude with a record. I could list another 6-7 main reasons, but I think this paints a decent picture. In my observation, Biden sits in a much better position than Hillary, way better. Of course, my 2016 PTSD allows for infinite ways to search for a Trump victory, but it's getting harder to entertain that paranoia. Probably the best chance is for Trump to overperform again and take either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin (I think Michigan is out for him), both of which have, at times, shown some glimmer of light for him, even if they steadily seem like Biden states.
Trafalgar is a verrrrryyy sympathetic poll for Republicans and were not so great in 2018. They were notably off in the Georgia governor's race. The issue Trafalgar has is they account for the "shy Trump" vote and adjust accordingly. The problem is there's no evidence of this phenomenon and most of the polls have already adjusted for the higher levels of the type of voters which carried Trump to victory in 2016. Even Republican insider are chirping Trump is in serious danger. Again, I can't discount a Trump win as the shock of 2016 is still fresh, but there's a lot which has to be off for Trump to be in a good position.
I think Trump has a very small chance at this point. His path requires Iowa, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina (these are all about 50/50 but will likely hang together) and then either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania (both unlikely). This tool is fun because it adjusts the calculations based on what you select in the other states. (Generic 538 disclaimer...) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
I will also point out that 538 was the one major place which gave Trump a decent chance of winning in 2016 and Silver was writing articles as such days before Election Day.
I have never seen any evidence that internal information is superior in accuracy to public information regarding polling. they may catch things that the public doesn't hear about, but the murky data at the heart of it is the same.
I question 538's "probability" calculations. I don't think their combined probabilities reflect reality because they don't know the distribution and assume normality
Some people knew though. They just did. And put their money behind it with extreme confidence. I always kinda wondered, in simplest terms, if more dems answer polls more often, and republicans just wait and vote.
Trump will win Ohio and Florida. If that’s the case, then Biden must win Arizona and Pennsylvania. The path to Trump having a great chance is fairly straightforward. Win Pennsylvania. It looks like he’s down today there but there are two weeks to go and he’s not down by that much. To me it’s not an unreasonable path to victory. If Biden were to somehow find his way to winning Ohio or Florida, then it’s most likely game, set, match.
It was off in Michigan by a healthy amount. Trump was polling ahead or tied in Florida and Ohio in 16. Pennsylvania was off some as well as Hillary had small leads there. But Pennsylvania was very close and that was within the margin or error.
I feel like 16 was as much or more about undecideds breaking for Trump than shy voters not declaring or falsely declaring.
Ohio I agree with, Florida I'm still iffy on. There have been a few Florida polls of late showing Biden at 50%. Doesn't matter how many undecideds there are, when you're at 50%... Just depends on the error, there.
Florida has been polling very strongly for Biden. Seems as if old people aren't keen on being seen as fodder for the virus and there are a lot of those folks in the state. The benefit for Trump in Florida, though, is that it is the one place which has a large number of Hispanic voters who will cast their ballot for him. I'm very curious about the West Indies vote in the state with Harris on the ticket, a new unknown. But, if Trump does lose Florida, it's over by about a 99.9% confidence. I think Ohio is 50-50 and it shouldn't be for Trump. Arizona is going to flip, most likely. Democrats have been winning there recently and their senate race put out a really poor candidate for the GOP.
I wonder how many new voters trump bring in. I've heard from quite a few working class people that's never cared about politics or bothered voting, and they're voting for the first time in this election. Would be curious is JG has heard that too with his line of work.
Trump thought releasing that raw video of the 60 Minutes interview was going to make him look BETTER?
