It's going to be wild either way. The biggest Trump supporter that I know is a gay guy married to a black guy. I don't know where that puts him on the intersectionality chart, but its funny to see on social media
Biden's team has seemed very unsettled by their internal polling. Several of the big financial firms in NY indicate it's a whole lot closer than media resports. I still think Biden has it though.
I just cannot fathom the allure of Trump. I have tried for 5 years to comprehend it. I feel like I did when taking a test and I didn't have a clue what to do and everyone around me was scratching and scribbling their answers down, like they know something I don't. I just don't get it.
Hillary also had a 5+ point lead in Wisconsin. That surely was outside the margin of error. Arizona was polling toward Trump in a late surge. Hillary had a slight advantage with two weeks to go.
I think from a strategy perspective, there is nothing fortified in terms of margins so Biden's team knows the situation is tenuous. For example, Pennsylvania is not in the bag, the upper midwest is not in the bag, etc. But similarly, Florida and Texas are actually competitive, which injects a lot of chaos into a strategy picture for both sides. is it worth spending on? or is it a distraction from Pennsylvania and the upper midwest?
but two weeks to go was before the comey announcement. I think people forget how much things changed with that. it turned a lot of people off from voting at all, and swung undecideds away
for the first time since the 90’s after NAFTA instead of losing factories we’re building them in my county. educated middle management types hate him but the working class sees him as a hero and hates both sides
That was the big news in those final weeks. You saw it in Arizona but not a lot of other polls - like WI and MI. Either the timing was bad with the polling or they missed it (or were just wrong all along). It looks like Biden is going to win MI. WI is polling for Biden about like it did with Hillary. Biden can’t lose PA or he’s toast IMO. Even if he wins it he has to win either AZ or WI in my mind. Bit that’s because I’ve chalked Ohio and Florida up to Trump. If Florida weren’t to go that way then the path for Trump becomes very very narrow.
I would rather make a stand in a state I grew up in than one my opponent lives in. not that I would totally concede anywhere.
Yea, so at this point, if you want to see a path for Trump, you have to put Florida in the win column. Which means that trying to look at both sides... requires a bias to Trump (for Florida). Least in my weird mind.
Yes I think that’s fair. Margin of error is quite wide. 2.5% per candidate swings the lead 5%. Tahts a lot. That’s about where Biden is polling. So you’d rather be Biden than Trump if you believe the poll at all. Trump needs that swing and something has me thinking he’ll see it in Florida.
he really needs it, won it before, it has been going red in recent elections, maintains a residence there, there is a history of voting irregularities in red's favor and he is polling well within the margin of error. it isn't a stretch, but to consider him not winning it pretty much ends the whole conversation because if he can't win it then he probably doesn't get many other battlegrounds.
But nationally manufacturing has been on a steady rise since 2010 at the least. I believe I have read that we produce more goods than ever before in this country. But automation is the reason behind this, not more assembly line jobs. This chart shows roughly 500k manufacturing jobs added (that's a lot, I know, but just a drop in the bucket compared to service jobs). https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces3000000001 As always, I am no economist, and I don't understand what particular policies Trump has put into place or killed that were in place that could account for basically a continuation of the growth from the previous years before he got into office.
he's a moron, as has been shown about 1000 times since he was elected. Why no one in his circle has had the sack to tell him to shut up and take his phone away, I still do not understand
At the debate tonight. This whole thing seems like bullshit with a kernel of truth (Hunter being sketchy as hell) that's being blown up out of proportion by the right and overly suppressed by the left.
i've definitely seen that to be true. I have a lot of Israeli neighbors and they are almost all pro trump. Also know many Hispanic legal immigrants that are pro trump too.
