I agree Biden has been in PA a lot. I would think his most intense focus should be on Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
If he really wanted to be secure, he'd just do a loop of the Great Lakes, going through PA, WI, MI, MN and OH, all of which, except Ohio, he is doing very well. I think Arizona is going his way and a lot of this, will do with the Senate race there. But, he's also flush with cash, so I'd push the envelope everywhere I could, if I were him.
If they weighted demographics differently. But generally I reject the idea that internal polls are superior to other polls. They may be strategic in their weighting, but that doesn't make their weighting necessarily more accurate.
Maybe I was missing something, but a few pages back I think you were saying Biden needs AZ or FL even with PA, MI, and WI. Did I misinterpret that? Because the Hillary map plus those three states is a Biden win without any other swing states Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Internal polling is going to shine at district level because it's 90+% of the polling for those races. The big pollsters just don't get that granular. You may see the same in some states that simply aren't competitive because the big guys just aren't going to waste resources on say, Alabama. But by and large I'm wary of internal polling for the bigger races. That said, if Wasserman is to be believed (and it's really not debatable that he is the gold standard at analysing district level polling) there's not much at that level that should concern Biden at this point. This year is going to be a really good test for pollsters in general though. It's gonna be a wonky year for likely voter models. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
But polls are balancing the samples based on "likely voter" models and expected demographic mixes. If it is wonky for likely voter models, how can it not also be so for polls? These aren't random samples.
Biden does not need FL and PA. I think I was saying PA alone isn’t enough, you also need WI or AZ. In reality if Trump wins Florida and Biden wins PA, then Biden still needs one of WI, AZ, NC, or GA (but pretty unlikely). Obviously TX would be a whole different story but I’m not assuming a win there either. Winning Iowa would not be enough. And depending on the state that Biden wins out of that list, NH could matter. For example if Trump takes FL and OH but Biden takes PA, then he still needs one from the list above. But AZ would only result in a 269 electoral tie if Trump were to win NH. Most of this all assumes Trump wins Iowa and Ohio and Biden wins Michigan and Minnesota. If he were to lose Michigan, then he needs PA along with 2 out of AZ, WI, NC, GA, etc. I don’t think there’s any way Joe loses MN but wins MI so I won’t go through those outcomes. Actually I just noticed Biden was pollimgnbetter in Nevada than I thought. I was giving Nevada to Trump. If Biden wins it, most of the above remains the same but Iowa is now enough to give Biden the win (if he also wins PA, MN, and MI along with the more certain states).
I didn't articulate that very well. I'm saying that because of what looks to be unprecedented turnout, it stands to reason that the weighting has a decent chance to be off again. But if that happens, your guess is as good as mine as to which way any potential polling errors go because if it. If the polls are generally good this year, then kudos to the pollsters. What I should have said is this year could present some issues where likely voter models are concerned. Monmouth uses a probabilistic model that *should* be pretty solid, not sure who else does the same
I added a little more above. Also I didn’t mention it, but Biden does have a path without PA. I just consider it so unlikely I’m not going to spend much time thinking about it.
Yeah there's a reason that every prediction model has PA as far and away the most likely tipping point. Neither one of them can really afford to lose it. It's gonna be a wild election night that bleeds over into a wild election week unless Biden a couple of AZ, FL, GA and NC
Anybody else anxiously awaiting Ann Selzers final Iowa polls? Should be dropping in the next few days right? That's a rhetorical question, I know IP has a Selzer hoodie on as we speak
The only path that Incan really buy where Biden loses PA is that he still wins MI and MN as he is polling and WI comes along with them. Then he picks up AZ on the back of the strong Senate race there. (This also requires Biden winning the NE-2 and ME-1). That doesn’t seem completely unrealistic.
Is interesting that trumps team is confident enough to stop ad spending in Florida and move it to MN. I saw some reports that the senate race in MN has shifted over 10 points and is now in play for the republicans. I think trump has some wind at his back right now
I don't even know what you are talking about. I'm expecting to be a prisoner in a reeducation camp by March, battling COVID which will have been rebranded the "Hunter Biden Virus."
Yeah I just think he has Florida. Shifting the money to Minnesota rather than Wisconsin is interesting to me, though. Maybe they were already spending a lot in WI.
