Wind at his back? From what? If we're going by travel schedules, then Trump has been playing defense in most of his stops. Meanwhile, Harris will be in Texas, of all places, and Biden is hitting Iowa, plus Georgia has been targeted, too. Meanwhile, there hasn't been a single poll in Minnesota which has Trump ahead, so I'm not sure if he's trying to project something with the visit, but it's extremely doubtful he wins there.
Yes, yes, it is. Are you basing this off of anything or just gut feel? Because the voting there has been robust and the polls are very tight. The state has been trending more purple every election cycle.
Seems that way, based on how close the election feels... and without Florida, it wouldn't be close. So if it feels close, he has Florida.
another read, which I am not claiming as my read, would be that he is operating based on game theory. If he has florida, he should focus on other battlegrounds to put him over the top. If he doesn't have Florida, he can't win anyway. Therefore, execute the only winning strategy which assumes Florida.
Yes. You have to assume Florida in order to carry on. But you actually do want to win it, so you wait until the last minute to pull ads. Very possible. But to continue, you still have to have Florida. So... if anyone wants to say Trump has a shot, or Trump is winning... Florida is his. Can't do it any other way.
Yes, and only a fool would think he has Florida in the bag. My guess is he's running out of cash and time and needs to project something beneficial.
likewise, Biden's campaign could be following a similar tactic: if your opponent can't win without all of Texas, Florida, PA, and OH, challenge him in those places. The result is both campaigns on offense in different places, and no secret information about how they are doing in a particular battleground is necessary in this explanation. Just spitballing. It may be pure game theory.
well no, someone maximizing their chance to win would assume it is what I am saying. He could assume it because not assuming it is useless and actually self sabotaging given that NOT campaigning other places would signal nationally that his path is uncertain. There is not a foolish campaign in this contest.
lol, not to me. it could be lopsided as hell and the tactical decisions of where to focus efforts are still sound. I'm not talking about platform or messaging, just how the map is being approached.
Well, it remains to be seen based upon how it plays out. In 2016, Clinton had a collection on non-foolish campaign managers who ran a foolish campaign and didn't even realize to go to Wisconsin, thinking it in the bag, until a few days before the election. Some Monday Morning Quarterbacking, yes, but the signs had been there, too.
In the bag might be a bit extreme, but I think he will won OH and FL. I am assuming some poll bias here and late decisions for the incumbent. That’s why I wouldn’t say in the bag because those could be bad assumptions. Undecided voters are nothing like 2016 this time around, but Florida is about 4% non-Trump/Biden and there weren’t as many undecideds there in 16 either (vs some states). Roughly half of those are probably third-party. So we shouldn’t see a huge swing. But Biden’s poll lead is thin, so an incumbent-lean in those late decisions will hurt him. I’m also not ready to dispense of he notion of a possible 2 pt swing in poll erorr or timing which is what we saw in Florida in 16. That’s only 1 pt per candidate, well within the margin of error. Biden is polling about 1.3 pts ahead vs Hilary’s polling lead going into election night at 0.6. Undecideds were about the same in both. So Biden likely is on better footing than Hillary. But I don’t think it will be enough.
Out of curiosity, what were the signs in ‘16 that Wisconsin was in danger? When I look at the polling, I see a rather large undecided pool that appeared to be breaking for Hillary initially but then largely Trump (undecideds fell from about 10% in early Oct to 5% in early Nov). But last polls issued there were an average of about 5.5 points in her favor.
I don't think either campaign has failed to visit a region the way that campaign did. That campaign also went in on time in PA and FL, whiffing on both. I do wonder if both campaigns now would benefit from a more targeted path. that they dont tells you they see a lot of noise in the polling and turnout data, I think. can't commit.
You believe he will, but you see how he could not, right? Because that's how I take "in the bag," in that, no way to lose.
That is correct. Biden has a 1.3 pt lead in the polls. I’m not sure how you could say he truly has it in the bag if you were giving actual election analysis. In my Election Day imagineering, I think that he’ll end up winning it. And as I structure the map Biden needs to win, that’s what I’m assuming.
I'm curious about younger voters on election day. they are showing out a bit in early voting, but are there more who show up on election day or did the group just vote early?
I think there are quite a few Trumpians that believe Florida is in the bag, and the only way to convince them otherwise would be for him to lose it, which isn't likely. Ergo, it's in the bag.
After watching the Tony Bobulinski interview with Tucker I believe Biden turned a blind eye to his son and brothers dealings but was not involved. I think Biden is clean but he knows his son and brother are [uck fay]ups but is too nice to completely distance himself from them.
