COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by IP, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

  2. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Schools likely aren't helping which is the biggest "open back up" impact we've seen. But this is too delayed for that.

    To me, this is completely the seasonal impact.
     
  3. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Well, the COVID PCR tests aren't going to detect flu as COVID. So from a case perspective, we know it isn't flu.

    As for this idea of not tracking flu, this is the second time I've seen you bring that up. I posted a reply before - but what are you basing this on?

    Here is the CDC site where flu is tracked every year - flu statistics for Week 42 (we'll get Week 43 data tomorrow) is updated here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
     
  4. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    Guess i got fake newsd. Have trouble believing anybody involved with covid and politics nowadays
     
  5. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    There is typically always a nugget of truth and then context added to it that leads to the wrong conclusion. That might not be the case here but I suspect it is. I’m just trying to figure out what the nugget was. I think it is that the CDC is reporting CLI visits rather than ILI visits this year on their surveillance report. But it doesn’t mean flu isn’t being tracked.
     
  6. warhammer

    warhammer Chieftain

    In case you guys weren't tracking, Europe has been putting in overtime to challenge the US as the home for COVID. Belgium has been really bad for a while now with certain regions like Brussels and Wallonia having over 1000 as a new case rate and the country as a whole near 900. We're going on lockdown here but without the "fun" stay at home from work part.
     
  7. InVolNerable

    InVolNerable Fark Master Flex

    How much would something like that run for residential?
     
  8. justingroves

    justingroves supermod

    700 to 900 per HVAC unit
     
    InVolNerable likes this.
  9. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator



    Seems like a good honest break down of it from different views on how to handle it
     
  10. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    The honest truth is that for the US, these conversations are way too late. We're just going to have a lot of dead elders. We should all wear masks, avoid crowding, increase testing and contact tracing, but otherwise carry on at this point. When the vaccine comes, make it required to the same extent that MMR and such are (which is to say, no one is forced but it not getting it without a valid reason may limit some opportunities).
     
  11. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    I don't like the idea of treating a vaccine with 1 year of research and 3 months of trials as MMR equivalent.
     
    justingroves and NorrisAlan like this.
  12. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    I thought the first vaccines weren’t supposed to keep you from getting it either but just limit the impact of the virus.

    Morally I don’t know if that’s the case how you could force the young to take it.
     
  13. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    Also we’re testing around 1.3 million people a day. I don’t see testing dramatically increasing or that its going to make much of a difference.

    The virus is endemic now and isn’t going to be stopped besides herd immunity naturally or from a vaccine
     
  14. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    It would take north of 1 million infections a day for America to definitely reach herd immunity. Less and it takes too long for everyone to get it and folks start losing immunity. We are at 100k a day. It would be like 8 years before it ran through the population, and by then the first population would no longer have immunity. And deaths would be over a million.
     
    reverendgeneral likes this.
  15. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    A vaccine where people still get whatever is meant to vaccinate against is not a vaccine.
     
  16. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Whsts your timeline for lost immunity? Looks like 6 mos based on your math. I’m not confident there is any evidence that’s the case. Just read a study yesterday that showed robust immune response through 5 months. It didn’t end there but they ran out of reliable data there.

    As for mutations that doesn’t seem to be a pressing concern yet but with this many infections you worry about that.
     
  17. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    I tend towards conservative estimates. If immunity lasts 2 years, great. It still wouldn't change the bottom line.
     
  18. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Has anyone seen a good study of herd immunity with an over-dispersed virus. If you limited large crowds but let everything else go as normal, what level of community spread would you need to see the virus go sub-critical?
     
  19. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    I don't know, but that is an important question to answer because that seems to be where policy and behavior is drifting towards.
     
  20. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    I know they’ve done stuff with health care workers and they’ve kept immunity though out the pandemic.

    they think consent exposure keeps the B cells active
     

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