1 Seeds

Of course not.

 

For all that KenPom loves the Michigan teams, I feel like they're on the outside looking in for the one seed. They both have a lot of losses to mediocre teams (relative to the one-seed discussion) and not enough big wins to compensate. I mean Michigan is basically Kentucky without the Tennessee win. Maybe if Michigan beats Sparty and then wins the Big Ten tournament, that might be enough. I'm not even sure that'd be enough for Michigan State--six is a lot of losses with the crop of contenders we have this year.

At any rate, I think our main competition for the one are Duke, UVA, UNC, Gonzaga, and Kentucky. The ACC is tricky this year. It doesn't really look like a conference that's dominant enough to get three one seeds--the problem is right now that there's a clear #3 in the ACC, and it's arguably the most talented team in the country, who has three wins over top five opponents and has had key players injured for all but one of their losses. If Duke beats UNC in Chapel Hill and makes the final of the ACC tournament, I think it's just Duke and UVA as the one seeds. But if Duke is the #3 team in the ACC going into selection Sunday, I think they're going to get a serious boost from the injury-adjustment factor and the ACC could get three teams.

As far as we go, we absolutely have to get ourselves ahead of Kentucky. Right now, it's a tossup between us. They have more bad losses, but their UNC/Kansas/UT trio of wins beats our UK/Zags. The only way we can feel sure about moving ahead of them is to beat them in the conference tournament (or win the damn thing without playing them). I think if we win the conference tournament, it's going to be hard to leave us off the one line. If we beat Kentucky and then lose to LSU in the title game, we're going to be fighting with Gonzaga, the ACC #3, and the Big Ten champ for that last spot. And honestly, as has been said before, I'd rather have the two seed and go to Louisville than get the one and end up in the West region with Gonzaga as our #2 seed. So I really don't care whether or not we're ahead of Gonzaga. If we're ahead of Kentucky, the Big Ten champ, and the ACC #3, we should be able to avoid going West with the Zags.

I haven't looked into matchups in a ton of depth, but of the teams that look like they have a good chance of being one or two seeds, I think Duke is the one I'd most like to avoid. We have trouble with elite size, and they have elite size. UNC and UVA might be better teams than Duke, but I think we have a better shot against either of those two.

 

re: LSU getting a 1:

how does the ACC circle jerk even have a meltdown that doesn't just boost the SOS and Q1 wins of each other?

It's baked in. UVA practically has a 1 locked. Duke will if they win on Saturday for sure, and if they don't then UNC is neck and neck with them.

that leaves two more, and Gonzaga is playing after-school programs for bullied youths the rest of the way so that takes another.

it would take UT and UK essentially losing out, as well as whatever turd doesn't flush in the conference tourney of the Big 10 having a worse record...

I guess it is possible, but the door could be closed on it before Wednesday.

 

Does Virginia have elite size?

 

2 losses this week + early loss in conference tourney. By multiple teams.

As IP said, the losses that are out there aren't enough to drop any of them. UVA will be a 1 seed. There's no question about that. Gonzaga has the other locked up.

That leaves 2 spots open, and you know UNC or Duke will have one of the two, likely depending on who wins this weekend.

From there, you have a host of other teams that are ahead of LSU, even if they drop another game.

 

Not at every position, no.

 

you know, Louisville playing ACC circle jerk spoiler might be the best shot for ensuring no triple 1 seeds. Beat UVA, then make a run to the conference finals...

 

I may be wrong. To me they should be in the discussion and would deserve that line if they can win out. The problem with the SEC is that about 6 teams behind the big 3 are pretty darn good and have knocked themselves out of the Top 25 round robin style.

I wil concede that if either of the Michigan teams win out that LSU can’t make a 1

 

Does anyone really think that Gonzaga is the top team in the country? I don’t think that they can make a tourney run where they beat 3 of the top 8 teams. To me they’re a 2.

 

Virginia is a one, I don't think there's anything Louisville can do about that. They've also been an absolute disaster lately, so I don't have a lot of faith in them doing anything about anything. But we're currently set up for Duke/Cuse and Louisville/UNC in the quarters, and a pair of upsets there could make things very interesting.

 

They look massive on TV

 

I haven't been watching them all year, but their top three scorers are all guards, although one of them is a tall (6'7) guard.

I feel like Williams has usually struggled the most when there's somebody in the post with NBA size that he just can't handle, and it doesn't appear that Virginia has one of those. They've got a 6'9 and a 6'10 guy in the rotation, but neither of them have more than 8 points or 4 rebounds per game.

Their two leading rebounders are both listed as tall (6'7 and 6'8) guards. So I'm guessing they're kinda like us size-wise, where they don't have a huge post presence but they have some talented wings.

 

Yeah I just looked up their roster and it wasn’t eye-popping. I haven’t watched them much and must have seen them when they had a big lineup in because they looked like an NBA team out there. That was at Duke I think.

 

ACC gets two #1’s
Gonzaga gets a #1
SEC gets a #1

Whomever wins the SECT gets the #1, unless it’s LSU. If LSU wins it, whichever of Michigan / Michigan St. will get the 4th #1.

If Tennessee wins the SECT, they’ll be the worst of the #1’s, and sent to the Midwest (Gonzaga will be #1 out west, 2 of the three between Duke / UVA / UNC will be #1 in South and East, leaving Tennessee in the Midwest). The only miracle path available for Tennessee to be a even considered for a #1 in the South or East is for them to beat BOTH LSU & KY in convincing fashion (10+ puts) en route to winning the SECT.

If Tennessee doesn’t win the SECT, it will not be a #1 seed - it won’t matter if they lose on the last second to a full-court no-look heave in quadruple overtime.

The talking heads have decreed that there are three (3) ACC teams worthy of being a #1 seed, and nobody but Kentucky is likely going to be allowed to challenge any of them for East / South, as the Committee will never send KY out west.

Why?
Because Kansas’ losing their #1 player and being mostly shitty all year thereafter hurts us. People forget how good they were when we played them.

Louisville has royally [uck fay]ed us twice. First, in not being able to inbound the damned ball for the final 5 minutes versus Duke, and later, for having UVA beaten before also shitting that bed, and losing, too.

Tennessee’s win over Gonzaga has a giant asterisks, because it occurred while the Zags were without their best player.

Finally, outside of Knoxville, few take Tennessee very seriously as a legit title contender. Tennessee wouldn’t be favored against any of the following, on a neutral court:

KY
Duke (even absent Zion)
UVA
UNC
Michigan
Michigan St.

Does it make sense? No.
Is it fair? No.
Is it reality? Yes.

Does everyone see Tennnesee as just a convenient feel-good side-show story to the real threats to win the tourney? Obviously, yes, they do.

Fight me, for all that I give a shit. That’s my $.02

 

To the question about UVA having elite size:

De'Andre Hunter is a legit NBA prospect with length. He's listed at 6'7 as a guard, and he looks the part from a size perspective.

Ty Jerome is another NBA prospect, listed at 6'5. He doesn't stand out as much for his size.

Kyle Guy is their "engine" guy and main 3 point threat. He's listed at 6'2 but honestly looks smaller than that.

Jack Salt is their big man, though he's not super athletic. He could give us trouble if we played them, but I think we'd get him in foul trouble early.

They also have a 5'9 guard that comes off the bench, Kihei Clark. He's small but has great speed.

So, overall, elite size at some positions.

 

Jerry Palm has us as the 1 in the midwest.

 

wish we could just tell them we want the south or east, give us whatever seed you [uck fay]ing feel like. we are in the SE. if they think we are behind Duke, unc, and uva, then put us in their bracket. our opening round shouldn't be more than 8 hours driving distance as a 1. that's bullshit.

 

If Tennessee played the following teams on a neutral court, in a tourney format, this would be the average point differential:

Duke +12
Gonzaga +10
Kentucky +9
UNC +8
UVA +6
Michigan St. +5
Michigan +3

If Tennessee plays with the same intensity and get Grant’s normal production and the same above-average level of production from 2 of the other 4 (Admiral, Bone, Turner, Bowden) - they’ll win the whole damned thing.

Period. Hard stop.

The first game they don’t, we’re getting bounced in the Sweet 16.

Again, my $.02

 

Can somebody please show me an example of a team that changed their seeding by winning or losing their conference tournament over the past decade or so?

 

Who’s the 2? UNC is my blind-assed guess.