Barnes in the Tournament

I know we have a number of weeks to go with multiple goals left (SEC Regular Season Champs, SEC Tournament Champs, 1 seed, etc.) to accomplish prior to the tournament even beginning, but from my perspective, none of that shit will matter if we can somehow win it all at the big dance.

I've said before that this team is built for a tournament run. We shoot it well from the stripe, and our best player lives at the line. We are a veteran, high character team with multiple leaders and a variety of guys who can put up big scoring numbers on any given night. We can score inside or outside, match up physically with any team in the country, have phenomenal point guard play, and can lock it down defensively when the time comes.

We check every single box that the "experts" include on their lists of what a title contender needs to have come tournament time.

The one thing that worries me - Barnes. And it feels weird saying that after seeing what he has done with this team full of guys that were not top rated players coming out of high school. But history shows that Barnes has consistently under performed in the tournament despite coaching some great players during his career.

Should we be worried about Barnes going into the tournament this year? Is there an underlying reason why he has struggled to find success when it matters most? Are there an examples from his past where he coached a similarly ranked team that lacked star power, and what were the results?

 

You had me curious about whether this is a stereotype or real, so I went ahead and run the numbers. Barnes has been to the tournament 23 times and has performed 6.6 wins below the expected win total for teams of his seed (so, on average, he's about .28 wins below expectation each year).

Interestingly though, he's only been a top three seed five times, and only once did he underperform the average for that seed (last year). The other four times, his performance has been exactly in line with his seed line--took a one seed to the Final Four, two two seeds to the Elite Eight, and a three seed to the Sweet Sixteen.

 

Id like for someone to explain to me the tactics, calls, bad timeouts, poor preparation, etc that makes Barnes a March choker. Did he come in looking unprepared?
Is it a choke when a kid hits a 35 footer. Is it a choke for Barnes if you miss free throws late and lose. People brought up March last year blaming Barnes, ignoring Alexander going down and replaced by Fulk.
I really would like more info than assumptions.

 

That's definitely interesting. Outside of a Top 3 seed, it's really a gamble. More and more so each tourney IMO.

 

The Durant year weighs heavily on people’s minds.

 

For pretty good reason.

 

I’ve said it before, the difference between ours and Michigan's runs last year was a couple of very low-percentage shots

 

It was a bad exit, but does it mean more than any other?

 

When you have a generational talent on your team? Yes.

 

what about going to a final 4 without such? Which he's done. I don't think it does. Shit happens in that tournament

 

Durant was 2-9 from 3 that game, played with 4 fouls and had 1 offensive rebound. Shot 24 times. Games like that happen, especially when its just one game. But hey, Barnes shoulda benched Durant and not let him keep firing I suppose. Players probably woulda liked that too.

 

That team was very talented. TJ Ford was the 8th overall pick. Royal Ivey was in the league for a while. Same for James Thomas.

 

of course they were talented, but none of those guys are/were "generational talents"

 

I'm not seeing the connection. Barnes finally gets to the final four with one of his many talented teams. That discredits blowing an easy shot with Durant?

 

i'm saying, shit happens in that tournament. it's one game. i really don't think it should outweigh 20 other tournament appearances

 

players play and you ride your horses. If they go cold, you lose. I still have yet to hear a coaching prep or ingame error. My guess is most don't recall or haven't seen one of his ncaa losses. How does one come to the conclusion for the reasons for losses, without watching.

 

Barnes hasn't been to the Sweet 16 since 2008. Upsets happen. Bill Self has had some teams go down in the early rounds, as have Coach K and Izzo. But, over a period of time, things tend to even out and a good coach should get to the second weekend more often than Barnes has. The criticism has been warranted, especially at Texas. Hopefully, he breaks the string here this year and he should.

 

His overall track record in March is subpar. It's ok to admit that.

(Active HCs - Appearances, wins, losses and sorted by win %)

Mike Krzyzewski Duke 33 91 28
Roy Williams North Carolina 27 76 24
John Calipari Kentucky 18 51 17
Tom Izzo Michigan State 20 47 19
Bill Self Kansas 19 43 18
Ben Howland Mississippi State 10 19 10
Sean Miller Arizona 10 19 10
Thad Matta Ohio State 13 24 13
Jim Boeheim Syracuse 32 57 31
Tubby Smith Texas Tech 18 30 17
John Beilein Michigan 11 19 11
Jay Wright Villanova 14 21 13
Mark Few Gonzaga 18 26 18
Bob Huggins West Virginia 23 31 23
Tom Crean Indiana 9 11 9
Lon Kruger Oklahoma 17 20 17
Steve Alford UCLA 10 11 10
Bruce Weber Kansas State 11 12 11
Jamie Dixon Pittsburgh 11 12 11
Dana Altman Oregon 13 13 13
Matt Painter Purdue 10 10 10
Rick Barnes Tennessee 22 21 22 0.488 win %
Kelvin Sampson Houston 13 12 13
Mike Brey Notre Dame 14 13 14
Mark Gottfried NC State 11 10 11

He's averaging, what, 1 NCAA Tourney win per year of his career?

 

Since 08, Texas was a 2 seed in 08, a 4 seed one year since, and no higher than 6 once. So they’re not getting a easy path since then pretty much every year. I think some criticism is fair, but I think it’s overblown

 

'Cuse did ok with Carmelo...