COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

I still think once this thing gets super low towards mid-May, we need to even more drastically reduce international travel. Divide and conquer. Don't let is creep back up because we didn't know about an infection in some lower income country. We can help them by sending supplies and aid. And in US cities where there is community spread, shut them down again.

 

No, even two weeks ago I thought we were teetering towards a major catastrophe if things were open at Easter.

But we do need to be careful to not make the same mistake of extrapolating the "now" as the "always." We still need a vaccine, still need more testing capacity, and we still need to figure out a way to bounce the economy back as soon as we can without this flaring back up. I'm pretty optimistic we can be on the road to normal by August, but we may need to continue to adjust expectations for another 9 months or so. Like, sports may come back but without crowds, kind of thing.

 

Some of the projected lethality was due to systems being overwhelmed. With the curve flattening, less of that will happen thus less lethality.

 

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemiologist-coronavirus-exterminated-lockdowns-lifted/

 

We've talked about this from the beginning. The higher the peak, the faster it would presumably be over. But also the more people would die.

 

This is a fantastic article - but I’d like to hear KPT’s thoughts before getting too excited.

 

Pending autopsy, but it sounds like it got one of my closest friends from high school's sister.

 

I've always thought about 80,000 was the number but that's great if we're pushing it even lower

 

He should tell that to the 1000s that would assuredly die unnecessarily if that model was used, imho. He might be right, but damn I don't want to take that gamble.

 

Right now it looks like we are both flattening the curve AND dramatically shrinking the total area under it.

 

A realtor here in Murfreesboro (about 350 pounds with other underlying conditions) got it and hooked himself up to a CPAP for 5 days. He thinks it saved him.

 

When i post articles, its usually without comment. If i read something interesting, i'll link it for discussion in case people havent read it, but when i do link, im not saying "this is what i think.." i have no idea if this guy is right or not but he studied diseases for a living for a long time so its worth a link

 

That guy's brain isn't wired to think about individuals, only the big picture.

 

Agree with all of this.

 

Work sent me home at 10 am today. Have to go back Saturday and work through the next Saturday, but hell, it's a start. I guess

 

We can study big picture and scenarios for the next 5 years. Maybe we will know better what to do next time. For now, it seems like if you are going to error, you do it towards saving lives in the short term.

That said, the next pandemic will not be covid-19. WW2 isn't WW1. Different spread and mortality rates.

 

I know, and I didn't mention you or say anything to you directly. It was all about him and how I think his idea is not a great way to look at it, imho.

 

Seems like Type I error lurks with all of these anecdotal accounts from those who recover. We won't know without studies.

 

I

I'm sure they'll call you back in, in a couple hours.

 

i'll give you some anecdotal. Don't take too much zinc at one time. Took 4 pills a few years ago thinking it would help me fight off a cold. Ended up sharting as I was driving myself to the Emergency room and felt faint. Ended up I took 4x the suggested intake and of course maybe the only person to OD on zinc. It was like the scene from Airplane as i'm calling my buddy on speaker phone asking him to look on the internet to see what symptoms were of too much zinc. He's reading them out and they are happening to me at the same time.. Nausea, convulsions, etc. I was fine after about 30 minutes but didn't ever think about too much zinc becoming a problem, and quick onset.