COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Discussion in 'The Thunderdome' started by IP, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    CDC nor states are disputing it. CDC even changed language on its website to reflect that their data isn't just viral testing.
     
  2. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    If you've been following on this COVID-19 stuff for awhile, you've seen the "ethnic" and racial stuff go all over the place depending on where the hotspots are. First only Asians could get it. Then it was "black people are immune." And now it is "latinx and black people are most vulnerable." I think it is far more likely that socioeconomics covariables explain the racial/ethnic picture in the US.
     
  3. peelwonder

    peelwonder Member

    I've thought the same thing myself as to the socioeconomic variables. The problem being we don't know as it's a "Novel" virus so alot of what's out there is just conjecture.
     
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  4. peelwonder

    peelwonder Member

    What is apparent going forward though is that we should have protected the most vulnerable and the highest risk and made decisions based on that. Hindsight is always 20/20 though.
    It doesn't help that most of the people that staff nursing homes and living facilities are often among the lowest paid. The employees were basically probably the super spreaders.
     
  5. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    This sounds good in practice but it is incredibly difficult to do. This was basically what Sweden wanted to do but it still found its way in to long-term care facilities.

    Perhaps there are ways to do it but once you have a decent number of infections floating around it appears to be very difficult to avoid.
     
  6. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator

    I thought Sweden’s issue was not doing anything at all with nursing homes early on
     
  7. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    My understanding was that they did try to take measures to isolate those populations - but if you see something on it that contradicts that shoot it my way. Perhaps I just saw that they were isolating those populations and assumed that had been their strategy all along (I thought the strategy was social distance where you can unless you are at risk and then we take extra precautions).
     
    IP likes this.
  8. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Sweden is actually the experiment that showed just isolating vulnerable populations doesn't work very well. You'd have to wall them in with their caretakers.
     
  9. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    The daily COVID deaths are still tracking well within excess deaths observed over the last few months. Also there has been some chatter that state death certificates aren't adding up to their reported COVID deaths, but I'm not seeing that in the data. It all comes down to how you adjust the data for the reporting lags. I've thrown out high/low outlier weeks and tried to get a good adjustment, but there is error. The small uptick in COVID deaths and larger uptick in excess deaths in the latest round of data is interesting. I would grain of salt that at the moment because if the CDC is getting more efficient at processing death certificates, it would appear as an increase (because the actual lag decreases, but I'm using the observed lag over the last several weeks).

    COVID Fatality Tracking 20200521.PNG
     
  10. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

  11. 2Maggitt2Quit

    2Maggitt2Quit Chieftain

    They've also shown that there are more ways than one to tank an economy. Vulnerable people buy sneakers, too.
     
  12. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

  13. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Okay, let's do this: let's get a random assortment of chest x-rays in controlled age groups from multiple years including 2020, with known COVID positive and negatives in 2020 as controls. Then let these fellers go through and pick out the ones that are positive. I'm betting they pull out some from well before 2019 under such circumstances. And that means [uck fay]-all about COVID-19.
     
  14. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

  15. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    French?
    Well now we know why its peter'ng out
     
  16. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Grim milestone that sounds crazy but do the math: 1 out of 400 NYC residents have now died of COVID-19.
     
  17. Volst53

    Volst53 Super Moderator


    https://www.france24.com/en/20200510-sweden-admits-failure-to-protect-elderly-in-care-homes

    My understanding is that they didn't do anything with nursing homes till it became a huge issue. Didn't give workers PPE and was transporting those living in them to the hospital and back between homes.

    Plus they have a few other logistical issues with nursing homes that their other neighboring countries don't have such as size and social economics of those in the homes.

    90% of those that have died in Sweden have been 70 and up with over 50% living in nursing homes
     
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  18. TBSVOL

    TBSVOL Member

  19. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Probably over 100k deaths by Tuesday. Back up to 28k + new cases yesterday. Alabama may soon get out of control, with very few intensive care beds left (which is when things will start tipping into having to decide who gets treatment). Before, New York was driving the numbers. Now the distribution is spread out more evenly. By Wednesday, every state will be on the way to fully reopening but some states are actually seeing peak new cases NOW. There has been no overarching strategy and it is going to bite us in the ass. While NY and the Northeast is slowing calming down in per capita terms, other places are about to see this thing full throttle for the first time.

    We can't shut down again, so we're just going to have to adapt. Folks need to wear masks, wash hands, maintain distance, avoid congregating, but still work and participate in the economy. I don't think the summer weather is going to be enough of a factor to matter, judging from how the numbers have moved through this month.

    The post mortem on this will be a split of "see, we never should have shut down it did more harm" and "we never really shut down and didn't even take actions in a coordinated fashion." And both will be right. If we have 100k now, I think seven figures is on the table before this thing is through sometime next year.
     
  20. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

    One of the reasons I will be working from home for the foreseeable future. Just cannot see myself placing my family at risk if I can do the same amount of work from home. But I am fortunate, and have this option and a job that is conducive to it.
     

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