COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

I've had that [uck fay]ing test 5 times, one painful shot and a booster later means I don't have to be skull [uck fay]ed with a q tip? Bring it on

 

I'm not disagreeing that people aren't soft but it's supposed to be quite a bit at a different level

 

So, like watching a football game every week? I’m ready.

 

I'd say that's why Tennessee was picked for early roll out.

A population that's used to getting it hard in the ass a few weeks apart

 

I think so. The use of steroids early, being more careful about how and when we use ventilators, some of the drugs like Remdesivir appear to help (far, far from a cure, but if you help reduce hospitalizations by 10-20%, that helps), etc.

I think we've learned a decent amount - but it's still a very rough respiratory virus that can freak the body out.....there's only so much learning....

 

He used that number in the context of taking current case counts to estimate upcoming deaths. In that sense, I think it is an OK number to use. Estimates are still that we are only capturing about 1 out of every 3 infections. While I believe the actual infection fatality rate is below 1%, that isn't what you would use when looking at new cases and estimating deaths.

One thing you do have to do though is try to separate new positives from new cases. I believe there are still states that count all positives as new cases and that will throw off that conversion.

 

That remains an interesting line of thought.

That discussion was really centered on NYC, with two considerations

1) Were we seeing herd immunity effects at current social behavior
2) Were we actually at the herd immunity threshold (for any social behavior level).

Key to that discussion is the idea that on one hand you would expect to need about 65%+ infection prevalence in order to reach HIT (true HIT) vs. thoughts that cross-reactive immunity (e.g., memory T cells) and the highly dispersed nature of the virus (i.e., heterogeneity) would actually reduce that to something more like 30% as long as large gathering weren't occurring (this is where the highly dispersed comes in).

The important part here is that most areas still aren't at 30% infection prevalence, including NY.

The best modeler - who obviously could still be wrong - has been Youyang Gu. He estimates infection prevalence by state here:

https://covid19-projections.com/#view-us-infections-estimates

The things that throws this for a bit of a turn is that he thinks that ND and SD are at more like 35%....and while yes, they are peaking, many more will be infected as they come down the curve. So even if they've hit herd immunity effects now, they'll probably wind up at least at 45% you would think.

So, if all states have to go *at least* that far, then, yes, we have a long way to go.

Now, those estimates for SD and ND could be wrong. If you look across all the states, we are generally at 20% or below. But, they are data points....

 

Getting herd immunity effects is not the same as having herd immunity though, right?

 

I fly home every other weekend to see my wife and son. Airports are still half empty so I sit by myself until time to board. Then only fly airlines that don't fully book (I know it probably doesn't matter but it makes me feel better and I like not being packed in like cattle).
I certainly see where congregating with other people at the airport could be a disease vector. I just try to be cautious and engage in reasonable risk.

 

You probably still get to do the qtip when the person you briefly passed in the hall comes down with covid.

 

Absolutely not.

In at least two ways

1) You can have herd immunity effects, including R<1 because you are social distancing but enough people get it to drop R. However, if social distancing were lifted, R would be greater than 1. That's not herd immunity.

2) You can have a peak in infections and dropping infections, which can be a true "herd immunity effect" but you don't reach the actual threshold until the curve dies all the way down and you reach what is usually listed as s_infinity in SIR modeling of epidemics - that is the equilibrium level of susceptible population where R will remain below 1.

 

Tennessee appears to be the nation’s hotspot right now in terms of case growth per MM people.

 

I'll let y'all have my antibodies now if y'all want to skip the shot.

 

Did you end up picking it up?

 

NNY will be trying to drink them straight from the hose

 

Cartman: “Uh-huh, suck it out of a hose”

 

Yup. I did.

 

I take it you got the mild version you were going for. Congrats.

 

Currently have it or already recovered?

I'm trying to find someone that has it to say that I was around them and exposed so I can get a couple of weeks off with pay heading into Christmas.

 

My county has been the highest spreading county in the state recently.


Hopefully we've rounded the curve, the past few days make that appears to be the case