POLITICS Democratic Nominee 2020 Lollapalooza

Sanders isn’t winning unless there’s another Great Depression between now and November.

 

He’s not winning NH. It used to be in play. Before that is was a Republican gimme.

 

How significant is the difference between 0% and 4%? Biden's support has to go somewhere. I'm not sure why his Pete's 4% makes it substantially more likely to go to him. And again, Klobuchar has other things going for her as well.

They're not illegitimate, they just don't demonstrate an ability to win legitimately challenging elections, like the one he is running for now. He received less than 11k votes in 2011 and under 9k in 2015 to become and remain the mayor of the 4th biggest city in a very forgettable state (I can say that because I'm from there). Oh, and South Bend has had a Democratic mayor since 1972. It's similar to AOC winning her congressional seat. Yeah, cool, she won it, and you can't take that away from her. But it is a little less impressive when you look at the district she won and realize it's as blue as blue can be.

 

Idk, chicks always seem to dig the gay dude

 

In a general I'd say Bloomberg can pull more Is and disgruntled Rs than any of the other Dem candidates. The question is how much of the D base will come out for him? If they really want to beat Trump I think enough of them might. He's moderate with forever money and that could work.

I question Bernie's ceiling. I give him tons of credit for his honesty, but embracing the word Socialism in any context is going to scare people. People don't have a good understanding of what socialist policies and practices exist here already, much less something like the Nordic model. Couple that with his supporters getting more toxic by the day and turning folks off. He may make me look foolish, but I think he has a titanium ceiling. That said, I think he beats Bloomberg for the Dem nom.

 

BTW, here's Amy K folks. Getting her zingers by flat out lying. The thing about a surge is vetting which follows. Let's see if she survives it.

 

Sanders supporters are starting to hurt as much as help him.

 

Are we going to go the Nordic model by going more free market, taxing the poor more, and no minimum wage too?

Or just the fun sound bites of more social welfare

 

I'm a general fan of the Nordic model, but nowhere near convinced it can work here anytime soon. It requires large scale buy in by the population. They have to understand what they're getting for the additional tax burden and generally agree with the outcome. There also MUST be strong participation in the workforce or it starts to crack. A few years back several Nordic countries started having issues due to influx of immigrants not prepared/willing/able to enter the workforce. I have looked into it much lately, but seems as though things have stabilized.

Bottom line - it's great if you have public buy in and participation. That's much easier to pull off in smaller countries/populations. The US is a whole different ballgame in terms of scale and population diversity.

 

I can’t see him winning in any scenario. He will come off crazier than trump if they debate.

 

IMO Bloomberg has way too much baggage and way too much of it on tape. I haven't even been following him closely but every time I get on Twitter I see some new video someone has dredged up from the past decade where he says something that would sink any of the other D candidates. Trump's media team would have a field day with all the shit he's got to work with that is out there publicly, let alone the dirt they can dig up. Maybe he has enough money and enough direct Trump attack ads to overcome that, who knows, but it wont be a good look to see a Trump-lite win the D nom and then drag his terrible ass into the White House just because he understands when to get off Twitter

 

Reverse the order and replace the revised number two with anyone except maybe Warren, and you might be onto something.

 

No disagreement. I just think (right now) he would be the biggest challenge for Trump in the general. I hope it's Pete facing him, but believe it will be Bernie with Bloomberg the 2nd most likely.

 

my sister is now all about that Buttigieg. that is significant to me personally, as she is very liberal. If he can build a broad spectrum of supporters, he has it.

 

also, the Limbaugh comment about him is an early indication that the right would take a bite from the gay hanging fruit, and I do not believe that is a winning approach in 2020 with independents.

 

not with many republicans either.

 

The last three for Democrats was a black man, a woman and now possibly a gay person. So far only the black man won the election for president vs the Republicans.

 

Well, to be fair, the gay guy hasn't actually run against a Republican yet.

 

also, clinton had the popular vote and suffered a strategic loss. however more someone dislikes her in particular, is how much less being a woman or whatever actually hurt her. if she was the same person but a white male, she probably does worse tbh. If she were some other woman without her baggage she wins.

 

Just saw three Tom Steyer ads back to back to back on the Pluto TV app. I think that's the first I've seen.