I'm thinking no, and I'm thinking about putting my money where my mouth is. Thoughts? Anybody wanna talk me out of it?
There's a better chance that Droski is made Chief Curator of the Obama Presidential Library. But I know relatively nothing about each team (other than UCLA appears more good-er), and certainly don't know what does or does not make for a good wager.
I know nothing about Cal, but I watched Memphis barely lose to UCLA, so as far I'm concerned all bets are off.
I've actually watched every Cal game this season. Their record is a statistical anomaly. They've been quite fortunate. On offense, they have the potential to be really, really good when Goff is on his A-game. On defense, I have no idea what they are even trying to do. They only get stops when the other team beats itself. This puts a ton of pressure on the offense. I expect UCLA to win by 2 or 3 touchdowns. Not because UCLA is great, but unlike many Pac-12 teams UCLA is somewhat balanced which will allow them to take full advantage of Cal.
Interesting note: UCLA has not beaten cal at home since 1998 with the average margin of victory by cal of well over double digits. They play every year. UCLA generally had the better team as well. As an example, during Tedford's about to get fired season (and mora's breakout season) cal obliterated ucla at home in 2012. Cal also historically gets up for this game because of all the LA kids on the roster while UCLA MIGHT be in full meltdown mode now that they aren't going to make the playoff and likely won't even win the pac-12 south. On the other hand, even not up for it, I'd expect UCLA to score 35+ points because their skill talent is infinitely better than our D. Cal's hope is that ucla continues to have zero pass rush, continues to not protect hundley at all, and we score a shitload. In summary, who the **** knows? I would suggest that it probably isnt' the easy money you think it is, but I've picked ucla with the points in every pickem I'm in. shrug
We've played some not so great teams. We got lucky against WSU, got unlucky against Arizona. The defense cannot stop a decent passing team. It should be noted against UW that cal had two untouched fumbles that resulted in a 21 point swing. And though cal is prone to choking, I'd suggest that was a flukey blowout. Cal's best 3 defensive players were injured against UW as well despite the defense playing better than it had before. Two of those guys return against UCLA, but hundley and his wrs are a much worse matchup than UW.
I've told you before. All of my academic pedigree is from Berkeley. If I'm watching or talking college football with my adviser, a big chunk of it is Cal. He invites me over to watch the games. We watch the Tennessee games sometimes too, god knows why. We're a pretty miserable pair.
I dated a chick once who was a math phd student and she was all pissy that the math in goodwill hunting too easy. I found it funny.
Yeah, there is a Numberphile episode on that. It is pretty funny. EDIT: [video=youtube;iW_LkYiuTKE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW_LkYiuTKE[/video]