Free Money: NCAA Basketball

I had KU on the ML. I was cursing Robbie Hummel and all his family, extended or otherwise. God bless those two breakout buckets.

I'm kicking myself for missing out on the Michigan State/St. Louis double bonanza, but I've actually been doing quite well on the NCAA tournament. I'm 9-1 with my only loss being NC State against Georgetown. I should probably slow it down substantially as there isn't any way I can continue at that.

Or I could go freaking balls to the wall and ramp it up. Kentucky vs. Indiana will have a very reasonable spread and moneyline, and I'm tempted to toss down the entire farm on Kentucky. I won't....because I feel like restraint is necessary in a tournament setting like this. But I really like UK in that game.

 

Bump.

Awwwwwww yeeeaaaahhhhhhh! That is all.

 

I realize that November CBB lines are the softest lines in all of sports gambling, but it's just so overwhelming. There are soooo many teams, and a CBB team can bear little resemblance to the team of just a year prior.

I went in on 8 games two nights ago and went 4-4.

Let's start listing helpful CBB gambling information in this thread. I could lie and say I came up with all of this information myself, but I'd just be a filthy liar. There is a guy I follow on twitter @stuckey2, who is an excellent CBB handicapper. He drops knowledge.

Ohio U is CLEARLY the class of the MAC this year.
Creighton is CLEARLY the class of the MVC this year.

I'll stop typing full sentences.

SWAC: Prairie View
WCC: Zags
SC: Davidson
Asun: Mercer
Patriot: Lehigh
WAC: Utah State
ACC: NC State
SEC: Kentucky
Pac-12: Zona
MAAC: Manhattan
Sun Belt: North Texas
Big East: Louisville
Big 12: kansas
Ivy: Princeton
Horizon: Valpo
CAA: Drexel
MEAC: Savannah State
NEC: Long Island
OVC: Murray
C-USA: Marshall
GWC: Pan am
AE: Vermont
MWC: Vegas
Big South: Campbell
Big Ten: Michigan
Big Sky: Montana
Southland: Oral Roberts
A10: UMass
BW: Fullerton

I may have missed a couple. Let me know.

Also, another valuable sourceo of info: nropp.com He puts out a "daily analysis". Here is todays.

NOVEMBER 11, 2012
1-2, -3.40
Leans: 6-1


Notes: Not that great of a start, but not concerned at all. Leans are hitting for whatever reason, and probably could have a few
more leans on the right side if totals were available. If records are not posted on individual days, they’re always updated under
the monthly heading on the daily analysis page. Not a big fan of Sunday’s games here. One game of interest, but probably more
so from an entertainment standpoint is Manhattan and Louisville. Masiello returns home to face Pitino. If you’re not aware of
the history between these two, here’s a summary. Masiello walked on for Pitino at Kentucky, got an assistant job at Manhattan,
then was asked to join Pitino’s staff at Louisville. There, he was the top assistant for six years and was also noted as being his
best recruiter. He recruited half of Pitino’s current roster. Here’s why this game is interesting. Both teams play an identical style.
Both press, both defend exceptionally well. Louisville obviously has a bit more talent, but every single tiny detail that these
coaches have been focusing on for the past few months in practice will come head to head when these two take the court.
They’re just identical in about every form. You would think that would lead to some points being put up here in a fast pace, but
it’s just not worth the risk with two great defenses. It’s going to be an interesting game to see which coach shy’s away from the
regular style of play first, if there are any adjustments to be made at all. I will definitely be tuned in for this one.

New Mexico State and Oregon State will more than likely approach close to 80 possessions. New Mexico State loses their
two slowest big men, so they project to be a bit faster this year as awkward as that sounds (ranked 22
nd in pace last year).
Oregon State will be playing its second game on the weekend, but they’re basically facing a similar style to what they faced on
Friday night, so nothing out of the ordinary here. These are two of the fastest teams in the country, and this game should play
like it. A little hesitant on OSU playing two in three (especially after playing 82 possessions Friday night), and for as a high of a
total as this is, it’s still early in the season. Probably be kicking myself in the junk for lying off of this one, but have some doubts.
Regardless, wouldn’t surprise me to see both teams go over 70 with ease. In regards to Oregon State, they just scored 102
points in 82 possessions for a 1.24 ppp average, which is insane in game 1 of the season. The first blog post at the site noted
that in 128 scenarios last year where a team scored 100 points, only ten instances saw a team put together the same efficiency
in the next game. We should see a drop in Oregon State’s offense based on theory, but as fast as this game is going to be
played, in addition to the fact that they’ll like the style (the same style they played Friday and same they have been practicing
against since, well, last year), there is a strong chance this one sees the same amount of scoring, if not more. And, even if
Oregon State is to come back to the norm (87 of the 128 instances saw teams drop in efficiency by at least 0.20 points), they
probably still score 80 if this game gets to the 80 possessions I project. Just a lean to the over…if it’s available.


Eastern Michigan played a 61 possession game in its opener against Rochester on Friday and returns with a quick bounceback against a snail Jacksonville State team. Game should be slow, and boring. These were two of the worst three-point
shooting teams in the country last year, and EMU will most certainly show Jacksonville State its zone seeing that Jacksonville
State ranked dead last in the country last year in three-point shooting percentage. This would normally be a good thing for
EMU, but not in this case as the zone is at a bit of a disadvantage here. Jacksonville State is a team who relies on good,
slashing players who can all create off the dribble. They return all five starters and are really a dangerous lineup because they can penetrate at just about every position. The key to beating EMU’s zone? It’s not shooting the three – it’s getting in the
middle of it and blowing it up. Perfect recipe here for Jacksonville State. Being that the game should be so slow, 8 to 9 points
generally seems like quite a bit, but just not sure here. One team’s offense is just non-existent (EMU struggles offensively), and
the other I would at least know they’re going to get into the lane and find openings. Eastern Michigan was a bit over-rated on
last year’s success because nobody had played the style and seen the zone. Jacksonville State is accustomed to this style,
having played many similar teams who utilized it last year.

Plays: None
Leans: New Mexico State/Oregon State Over ?

 

Akron will win the MAC.

 

No way

 

Where was a thread like this all year for CFB? I could've actually contributed to that one (130-85 to date). Hopefully you guys bring the knowledge for this again this year because I'm terrible at CBB betting.

 

I'll be a bit surprised if Gonzaga doesn't run West Virginia out of the building tonight.

 

UMASS and Marshall aren't winning their leagues, either.

 

So you take Gonzaga at -11? What about o/u 138?

 

Nice suggestion, hat. What do you have for Temple at Kent State(+5)?

 

My online account had dwindled to $45. Put $5 on us -2 yesterday and spread the rest around 12 nfl games. Went 13 for 13.

 

Wanna bet?

 

You're right on this. That team with the good coach who you inexplicably think is a bad coach will win the A-10.

 

I have a guy, but I'm up 7K with him right now, so I opened up an online account so I could partition my winnings a little bit. It's not that I don't think he can pay me -- he's paid me 4K before -- but I'd rather get paid out first, and then proceed to continue crushing him.

But CFB is over now, and that's my cash cow. That's the only sport I know I can continually [penis]-slap on a week to week basis. But I guess all good things must come to an end. Even dime-a-week [penis]-slapping with a semi-erect penis that allows for sufficient swingability while retaining the ability to deliver a significant ooomph on impact.

 

Are you saying you went 12-0 on NFL games ATS? I'm calling BS. Nobody does that.

 

Teams that are covering by the widest margins thus far:
Ole Miss
NC A&T
Texas Tech
CS Fullerton
Ohio (juggernaut)
Verment (solid team)
Santa Clara
Longwood (that's what she said)
Stony Brook
Bucknell
Gonzaga (this team is excellent this year)
IL-Chicago
Akron
Maryland
St. Peters
UTSA
Indiana
Michigan
Cuse
San Fran
CO St
Okie St
Zona

Ole Miss is +22 ATS
Zona is +8 ATS

And it increases linearly as it goes up, so you can figure the rest out. I don't feel like listing them.

ETA: except that there is a big jump down between NC A&T +19.5 ATS and TTU +15 ATS

 

KB how is the season going? Hoops is my favorite time of year to invest.
If I get time I may post a few plays.

 

Do it!

 

Read 'em and weep. It was the kind of run that pissed me off that I don't do this for more than peanuts.

146899181-1 $3.15 $3.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 412 Washington Redskins -3½ -105* vs Philadelphia Eagles 146899181-2 $4.56 $4.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 413 Green Bay Packers -3 -114* vs Detroit Lions 146899181-3 $3.36 $3.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 415 Arizona Cardinals +9½ -112* vs Atlanta Falcons 146899181-4 $2.12 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 417 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 -106* vs Carolina Panthers 146899181-5 $2.22 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 419 Cleveland Browns +7½ -111* vs Dallas Cowboys 146899181-6 $2.00 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 421 New York Jets +3½ +100* vs St. Louis Rams 146899181-7 $2.10 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 4:25pm Reduced Football 424 New England Patriots -9½ -105* vs Indianapolis Colts 146899181-8 $2.24 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 425 Jacksonville Jaguars +15 -112* vs Houston Texans 146899181-9 $2.00 $2.16 Win 11/18/12 1:00pm Reduced Football 427 Cincinnati Bengals -3½ +108* vs Kansas City Chiefs 146899181-10 $2.02 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 4:05pm Reduced Football 429 New Orleans Saints -5 -101* vs Oakland Raiders 146899181-11 $3.24 $3.00 Win 11/18/12 4:25pm Reduced Football 431 San Diego Chargers +7½ -108* vs Denver Broncos 146899181-12 $2.40 $2.00 Win 11/18/12 8:30pm Reduced Football 434 Pittsburgh Steelers +3½ -120* vs Baltimore Raven

 

You didn't think to at least toss a 5 dollar parlay down with all your plays?

I do that every week. I toss down a small amount of money on a 10-20 team parlay, just because you never know. The fact that you actually went 12-0 ATS gives me hope. A 5 dollar parlay on those games would have paid you $3K