Game odds, win probabilities, power rankings

Discussion in 'Vols Football' started by Tar Volon, Aug 9, 2016.

  1. TennTradition

    TennTradition Super Moderator

    Methodology was taking the Vegas spread for each game and converting that to a likelihood to win based on historical spread vs win percentage for all teams. Not perfect but pretty reasonable way to measure win expectations.
     
  2. bigpapavol

    bigpapavol Chieftain

    That makes sense. I don't think the historical data helps s lot given that the spread is really about the relative ability of the two teams and we don't know much about that in preseason. P
     
  3. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    But it is for expectations. It mathematically shows we can have expectations, based on point spreads.

    If historical point spreads reflect reality, then using that, we can say, "We expect to win 10 games this year."

    And that's what the article is doing. It gives an idea of where we should be, based on probability to win each game this year.
     
  4. bigpapavol

    bigpapavol Chieftain

    I get that, but the historical data is limited in its predictive ability. I think we can say we win 10 based upon our personnel relative to our competition.

    Accuracy of historical data matters some, but not much.
     
  5. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    The purpose of the historical data is to show that Vegas lines and wins in a season has a correlation. It is just used to establish that one can use that.

    It isn't actively using it.

    Relative to our competition is this year's spreads.
     
  6. bigpapavol

    bigpapavol Chieftain

    i understand it, but don't buy it. Vegas' historical ability doesn't make this year's number more likely to be good vis a vis UT. This year's spreads will be altered after some play. They account some for relative abilities, but they lose too, just like all gamblers. On large scale, their numbers can gravitate toward some decent level of accuracy, but applying to a single team in preseason is a fools game.

    I think it's s nice exercise to tell us what they think.
     
  7. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    You clearly don't. Why would vegas' odds be better for one group of players than another?
     
  8. bigpapavol

    bigpapavol Chieftain

    You don't get what I understand. I didn't say anything of one being better. I'm talking about the quality of their guess.
     
  9. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    I keep almost posting, but then just think "Nah. No one really cares."
     
  10. bigpapavol

    bigpapavol Chieftain

    Kinda where I was for most of this.
     
  11. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    I care.
     
  12. kidbourbon

    kidbourbon Well-Known Member

    Down with apathy. I care too.
     
  13. InVolNerable

    InVolNerable Fark Master Flex

    Thanks.
     
  14. cpninja

    cpninja Member

    The story of my life on this board
     
  15. kmf600

    kmf600 Energy vampire

    Who the **** are you?
     
  16. cpninja

    cpninja Member

    Someone who reads a lot more than they write
     
  17. kmf600

    kmf600 Energy vampire

    Nobody cares
     
  18. **TDCVOL**

    **TDCVOL** Contributor

  19. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

  20. Tar Volon

    Tar Volon Me Blog @RockyTopTalk.com

    Bill Connelly has us winning 8 or 9. Mostly because he thinks Georgia is borderline top ten, Florida is top 20, and the rest of the East isn't completely dire
     

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