Did a piece on RTT, looking at the preseason lines for UT games and then using kidbourbon's win% spreadsheet and the 8th maxim combinatorial tool from last summer to come up with win probabilities. Also put together a point spread power ranking for the SEC East, based on the lines that are out so far. http://www.rockytoptalk.com/2015/7/...-and-the-sec-east-win-totals-title-odds-lines
Also tried my hand at an entire SEC point spread power ranking. It's tricky, because the lines are not internally consistent. Arkansas, for instance, is a double-digit favorite over Mississippi State and an underdog to Ole Miss. But MSU is only a 1-point underdog to Ole Miss. When you adjust for HFA, it comes out within a couple of points, but it doesn't come out as a straight power ranking (and I didn't expect it to be perfect, but there's more variance in the West than in the East). Teams can be as much as three points off in their placement depending on which games you compare. But this is my best guess ATM 1. Alabama 2. LSU +4 T3. Georgia +5 T3. Auburn +5 5. Arkansas +6 6. Ole Miss +7 7. Tennessee +8 8. A&M +9 T9. Missouri +10 T9. MSU +10 11. Florida +14 12. South Carolina +15 13. Kentucky +19 14. Vanderbilt +27
Cool, will start digesting this. Also, didn't KB collaborate with Float and/or TT? If so, kudos to them too.
KB asked for help on the combinatorial tool. I don't remember who ended up creating it, but it was somebody on here. Definite kudos.
Yeah, Float did the code, and TT dis his best Walter White and came up with the master recipe. it was top notch work by both. http://8thmaxim.com/site/forum/showthread.php?t=11463&page=4
I was really happy with how that turned out. It was fun coming up with the right form of the combinatorics and seeing how it somewhat simplified. I've used that combinatorial tool multiple times since. It's extremely handy compared to enumerating everything in Excel. Nice asset for the site that Float built.
