Severe Weather Thread

I am saying if the odds are like 50% for rain each hour for 12 hours, it would stand to reason that the chance of rain occurring that day would be more than 50 %. The daily chance data is driven by the combined chance of all the hours.

 

Nope, I'm wrong. Apparently chance of rain is "chance precip occurs x area that would receive measurable rain".

So I can't figure out why it is 80% on the day but lower on the hour.

 

No, damn it I was right the first time. I used to be so cocky and stubborn, now I got low T or something

 

I mean, I understand not all hours would be 80%, but for the life of me would 1 of them not have to be 80%?

 

Stealing a baseball analogy from google:

If a batter has a .300 avg and bats 4 times in a game, he has a 76% chance of having at least one hit.

% chance of getting out at a given bat is .7.

.7 x .7 x .7 x .7=.24. 1-.24= .76, 76%. Same with rain chances.

 

I imagine it is an 80% that, during the day, at some time, it will rain. It might only rain for 30 minutes, but it is going to rain.

But in any one hour there is a 40% chance to rain.

So say for 3 hours in a row there is a 40% chance to rain, there is a 60% chance it won't rain.

.6 x .6 x .6 = .21 Therefore for those three hours, there is a .21 chance it will not rain, or .79 (or 80%) chance it will rain for the whole day. If my math is correct.

EDIT: IP beat me to it by a few seconds. DAMN YOU IP

 

SHUT UP I NEED THIS

 

So you are both going to say if there is a 40% chance of rain for 6 hours, there is essentially a 100% chance of rain?

 

.6 chance of no rain. .6 to the fourth power is .1296. 1-.1296 = 87% chance of rain

 

Nope.

.6 ^ 6 = .05. So there would be a 95% chance of rain over that six hour period.

EDIT: HAH! IP beat me to the punch, but he had an error in his math (^4 vs ^6), so I win.

 

Ah yes, did that backwards.

Still, I do not see how you can use that to say the chance of rain is 90% with no higher than 40 on an hour.

 

How can you say a guy who bats .300 has a 75% chance of a hit in a game?

 

I would never say that because there are a lot of other factors that go into it that just he hits .300.

 

Not over a large enough sample of games. You are stuck looking at "odds it will happen" but often you can only really look at the odds it WON'T happen. In any individual game, perhaps he has a sore on his left hand, he batting against a guy he has a lot of trouble seeing the ball coming out of his hand, etc.

But over 162 games, you can say "He has a .75 chance of getting a hit in any one game" (assuming it is .75, haven't done the math to check it out.)

 

I give, I'm just going going to accept this.

 

What it comes down to is that odds are fundamentally misleading. Vegas was built on this. It's all about volume of events, rather than individual events.

 

I will accept this.

 

You almost got this thread on Facebook by me but I got too busy. As they said you have to do (1- prob)^events.

 

Global warming

 

Never tell me the odds.