Severe Weather Thread

Nate Silver's book had an interesting section on rain forecasts. Apparently chances are inflated because viewers are pissed when the chances are low and they get rained on, but pleasantly surprised when chances are high and it's sunny.

Making local weather forecasts the least reliable.

 

There is an 80% chance tomorrow.

At 1 and 2 pm there is a 90% chance of rain.

Im sorry, there has to be a 90% chance of rain tomorrow.

 

How do I set up a casino and get you in it?

 

my weather forecast is simple: 50% chance to rain every day, unless I have outdoor plans in which case its 100% chance

 

When you live in South Florida in the summer, there is a 100% chance it's going to rain its ass off right at 2:45 when I'm about to go home for the day.

 

Or it is going to rain right where you are fishing.

 

Give me guaranteed wins, and I'm there.

Of course, you are also taking fabricated odds where the house is set up to win (and in fact using skills/strategies to beat the house is against the rules) and applying them to something much more random.

 

This may solve the 40 vs. 80 debate for me (although not 90 vs. 80)

PoP - Probability of Precipitation - confidence of precipitation occurring X coverage area expected to see measurable precipitation

This makes more sense to me, and how the day can be greater than the hour, given spotty showers and such.

 

Didn't you have to take a probablity and statistics course in college?

 

That lady won. Therefore I can win!

Where are my slots?

 

I just need the weather people to tell me when a cold front is coming through Arkansas

 

I did. Mind went blank on last 5 questions of final and cost me an A. Biggest choke moment of college.

I get odds and statistics. I do. But this just seems outside of that to me.

 

Last night?

 

It's just a combination of two different probabilities: hourly to day and then affected area in a day.

 

Preferably November 18 to January 30th, anytime in between there.

 

Been nice knowing y'all.

 

Sunday looks warm, but hopefully the rain will help cool it off

 

Could be worse, if we used Celsius.

 

You got a pool.

 

Subtle, "I live in Maryville, kiss the ring" post.