Severe Weather Thread

Depends on the atmosphere. You wont see anything like last May. Worst should be south of you, but still be on alert

 

You might be able to just move a few counties over be okay.



Keep in mind that some of these things are shifting, due to climate change though.

 

Tomorrow niht has the potential to very rough for West and Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Mississippi, and Alabama.

This forecast from Fox 17 news in Nashville:

An even stronger system is on the way for Sunday night. The ingredients are coming together for widespread severe weather across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. The storms will be coming through at night and in January, a potentially deadly combo because people's guard will be down.

Our Microcast model shows a line of storms to our west just after 11pm. I expect a long line of storms with stronger potentially supercell storms out ahead of that line. The threat will be for isolated tornadoes out ahead of the main line and straight line winds with the front itself.

Right now the timing looks to be between 10pm and 2am.

Scattered strong storms will begin popping up between 10pm and 12am and the big line will go through between 12-2am.

 

If no supercells build before the line of storms, then the chances of tornadic activity will decrease. Once the storms form a squall line, they seem to lose the ability to develop tornadoes. Nothing scientific to back that up, just years of observations. Most tornadoes are spawned in the supercells. That because all the energy in the atmosphere is concentrated into one storm. A line of storms has to tap energy from the same area

Damaging wind, hail, and CTG lightning will be the worst thing from a squall line


Thats why storm chasers never go after a line of storms. They go after the ones by themselves


Still, its weather. Anything can happen

 

Fantastic, Knoxville area looks to be right on the line of overnight storms.

Just great.

 

Good summary count - if you don't see the supercells ripening in front of the main squall line, then concern can ease over the worst storms. Still sounds like folks should hold on for heavy winds and possibly hail with the main line, though....while keeping an eye on what is happening in front of that line.

 

Thanks TT

Greg Forbes just issued a TORCON 6 for West Tn, East Arkansas, North Mississippi, portions of North Alabama, and portions of Middle Tn. Some of Western Kentucky is also in that area

For those that dont know, a 6 means that there is a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of your location

 

When is the stuff supposed to hit the Knoxville area? Or is it?

 

Tomorrow in the AM. Will roll into Middle Tennessee around midnight

 

Everything here is still soaked. I'm wondering about flooding

 

Torcon 8 for our area. Storms will weaken dramatically as the head east in middle and east Tn

 

reedtimmerTVNReed Timmer
Storm between Pine Bluff and Little Rock, AR is also showing incredible rotation. This could be a historic tornado outbreak tonight!

 

Oh shit. Reed knows his stuff.


Take cover in the Memphis area. 2 tornado warnings in Arky headed in the direction of Memphis. Like Count said torcon upgraded to 8 in west TN, 4 in Central TN, 3 in east TN. Everyone stay safe and treat this with respect.

Edit: the tornadoes in Arky have been spotted and confirmed as on the ground. Big time rotation. Damage reports are in. Saying in Memphis in next 2 hrs.

 

Another ominous sign: TWC's Mike Seidel is reporting from Memphis. Reporting he is seeing lightning across the river from new storms.

 

ya reed is tweeting like every 30 seconds

 

Reed just retweeted a report of people trapped in massive damage in Fordyce, AR.

 

You guys in that flat land need to be safe tonight

 

looks like memphis could get hit hard here shortly

 

Yep. Temperature rising, too. Gone fro 67 to 69 in last hour= not good. More fuel for the storms. Hang low guys.

 

seems that the worse storms are heading north