Discussion in 'Politicants' started by emainvol, Jan 20, 2021.
So why has inflation cooled off in the US, and why did it do so here first?
Just weighed my gallon of milk and it’s still a gallon. Whew.
Has it? You do realize they can control that narrative (other countries are probably being more honest). I still see pretty damn high prices at the grocery store and when I go out to eat.
Yes, it has. You won't see prices go lower unless we had deflation (which is in some ways worse than inflation). Inflation is the rate of price increase, and that has leveled off to around 3%. 2% is considered optimal (less is bad). It feels like a lot of people complain about inflation without understanding any of that. The narrative that things are being manipulated and things are actually far worse is doom-wishing. America's economy is actually pretty good right now. If you don't believe me, go to any airport and look how many people are traveling for pleasure. Look how many people are driving for pleasure on trips and on holidays. Those are signs of a strong economy*.
*that doesn't mean everyone is doing well and no one is hurting, there are always people not doing well in any economy and we should always look to help them
I remember when my grandmother filed a complaint re: buttermilk being shorted. I forget which Federal organization she contacted.
She would transfer her buttermilk from the waxed carton to glass bottle. She noticed it was an ounce light as advertised. She did that for 3 months. Took detailed notes. Turned in the dairy and store.
She happened to be in the store when the Feds swooped in and got samples from dairy case to test.
She got a letter from government saying she was right. The dairy had been fined. The dairy company gave her coupons for free stuff. The store manager kissed her azz every time she stopped by the store.
It was awesome.
I understand inflation vs deflation, we have had this conversation before. I don't believe the 2-3% is accurate so I guess I am just doom-wishing. I have seen far higher than that on average in the cost of doing business every year over the last 3. As for the travel I think a lot of that is people still making up for not traveling much during the pandemic. I will say I was at an airport recently and I did not find it to be busy at all so that example doesn't work for me first hand but I do think people are traveling more just based on talking to friends and family. I think this year will be a real test for how the economy holds up and if it holds up well I don't see any reason why we would change leaders. jmo
Any time I've been around one it is slammed. I'm not saying prices are not significantly higher than 3 years ago. But there was a big jump of 10% or more about 2 to 1 years ago and that is over.
I think part of the disconnect here is that Zehr just believes the reported numbers understate inflation as most Americans experience it (he’s right), not necessarily that it hasn’t decreased from the 2022 highs.
Personally I think Americans are just so conditioned to obscene consumption now that it takes way more scare to change habits and preferences.
"as most Americans experience it" is a slippery target to capture. If housing costs are a big component, are most Americans house shopping? If it is gasoline, are most Americans thinking prices have gone down (no)?
That may be true. Which directly relates to the economy in that any cease in growth is "bad," and we are consuming an ever increasing amount. Droski used to talk about this in terms of the appliances and gadgets in our homes now, vs 30 years ago vs 50 years ago, etc. I have seen people arguing Door Dash and food delivery costs increasing is a major problem, as if we have to have food delivery. Bonkers.
Oh it’s not slippery, it’s damn near impossible. That said, it wouldn’t be hard to do better than we are now. The trouble is how much more upheaval there would be of the numbers were accurate (or as accurate as they can be).
Checked the CPI calculator. It says it takes 1.19 to buy what 1 dollar would have bought in January 2020. Do you buy that that is true for the average American’s basket of goods? I don’t.
I think the people making that argument about Doordash are dumb.
There’s a lot of stuff hanging around that would have never been feasible without ZIRP, and much of it will die. Some of it will stay just because preferences change ( Gen Z’ers are too anxious to leave home so Doordash will survive I think).
depends on what you’re buying.
that’s probably about right for a lot of consumers junk.
Not true at all in real things like equipment, land, and stuff like that as it’s going to the top and expensive as shit to regulate people pricing them out of the market.
The biggest issue is that we’re having to spend about a buck fiffty to get a dollar of GDP, and we can’t take away the punch bowl or it’s going to get really ugly
Ya, that sounds reasonable. It may even be on the high side.
We agree that if you get into things like specialized equipment and land, it is higher.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree on that. Still sucks for the millions and millions of people who haven’t seen a commensurate increase in pay. Which is part of why Biden’s approval rating is so bad.
Biggest issue is that full time jobs are taking a huge hit while most of the new jobs are part time employment. Then you add on top of that most of the job growth is going to foreign born workers.
American born workers are at 2018 level employment level
It is frustrating to have these conversations because I can link data showing that income has increased faster than inflation, specifically for lower wage earners and median income folks, but this is just not a data-driven position I am arguing with. It will be "most Americans" and "millions and millions of people" sort of prognostications based on trust me man.
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