The Stock Market Thread

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/stock-markets-wall-street-in-focus-amid-earnings-economic-data.html

Oy.

 

Maybe I'll be able to sell all of this gold I'm sitting on finally

 

AAAANNNNNND, now the warning has gone out, people will stop spending money and VOILA! RECESSION!

 

Tis a vicious downward spiral.

 

Nope.

 

I don't see it.

 

Correct.

 

Debt levels worry me but I think it'll ride out for a bit more.

 

If tech, services, banks, etc can keep trucking along, I guess US GDP can hang in there. But living in the manufacturing world, we’re knocking on recession’s door over here.

 

It sure seems like it.

Although housing, around here at least, is still strong.

I think we are going to see a small one in the next 12 to 18 months.

 

Just cashed out my state retirement for bitcoin.

See you [itch bay]es later. I’ll be in Tijuana with my new friends.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-14/wework-ipo-shows-it-s-the-most-magical-unicorn

 

Just got back from a lunch n learn with a speaker from JP Morgan. Probably the best one of these I have attended.

Fun fact - From 1/1/99 to 12/31/18 the market averaged 5.68% growth. If you tried to time it and missed the 10 best days it earned 2.01%. If you missed the 20 best it was a -.33% return.

 

20 days out of 20 years is all the growth?

That is insane.

Would be interesting to see what the growth would be if you missed the 10/20 worst days.

 

that's fascinating.

guess he thinks a recession is near too.

 

Actually - not really. JPM says less than 40% chance of one in next 12 months. He did say to watch out Q4 of 2020 thought because that's 2 years after the fed quit raising rates.

 

The most interesting thing I learned from this was that Dimon is very pro-trade war. He says the short term headaches are worth it because China is [uck fay]ing us over in regards to IP and such.

 

I knew IP was a commie spy.

 

i'd put it much lower over the next 12 months. probably closer to 25%. the indicators just aren't there. even the inverted yield curve isn't a great short term predictor.

as an aside JP Morgan's proprietary high net worth asset management performance has been AWFUL over the last decade. way too heavy in international and alternatives.

 

i bet something similar. think about how you'd do if you missed out of just the 10 worst days of 2008?