The Stock Market Thread

Are you erasing the nautical achievements and prowess of the Rapa Nui?

Just kidding. Another potential factor that you are close to poking at is the introduction of rats, which may have favored the nuts and seeds of much the vegetation. But they arrived with the Rapa Nui, not Europeans. Not everything is the fault of Europeans. The Maya collapsed centuries before contact, for example.

 

I assume the Olmecs too?

 

And the mound builders and the architects of the Naza lines and so on.

 

Warm and cozy vibes coming from this one -

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...st-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177

 

They have to thread the needle perfectly and I don’t see it happening.

the fed printing has drove the stock market and caused the inflation.

do they crash the stock market to fight inflation or do they allow inflation to keep rising to save the stock market.

 

How do you make goods cheaper?

There are only three paths possible:

1. Cheaper goods
2. Goods that stay the same price
3. More expensive goods

1 and 2 seem very hard to accomplish, which means 3 is inevitable.

 

This is a fallacy.

The issue is our monetary policy and central banking making 1 and 2 difficult while money printing like we have in recent times and only adding gasoline to that since covid.

 

Which fallacy is this?

 

You’re seeing it as goods increasing, when you should be viewing it as the dollar’s value decreasing.

 

That's not a fallacy. That's a cup being half full or half empty. It's the same cup, though, and the same contents.

Goods being cheaper increases a dollar's value. Goods being more expensive decreases a dollar's value. If a dollar's value is increased, goods won't stay cheap, they'll rise, because, why would they stay cheap?

 

I think the inflation we are seeing is only somewhat related to money printing.

-Energy and electricity prices reversed their decade-plus retreat over the last year as natural gas demand caught up with supply for the first time since 2008.
-Retirements are accelerating with COVID and we are seeing actual wage inflation
-Workers see power for the first time in years and are selecting away from certain sectors
-The US spends a huge amount of money on services. Stimulus kept money in pockets with decreased access to services. So we bought more and continue to buy more stuff. Our supply chains are built just large enough. We have eliminated all excess for profit maximization. And scaling that in a tight labor market is not doable.
-It isn’t just our labor - global policies are affecting global productivity.

 

I agree on all of this. The obvious short-coming in the "it is the printing of money" as the central force to this is that this is a global phenomenon, not just a US dollar one.

 

This is probably my next book purchase.

 

Where my crypto bros today?

 

Seems to not be recession proof after all.

I still think it having no utility, inherent value, or... mass, is a drawback that is unmitigated by regulation or backing.

What do I know though, some people somewhere probably got rich. Maybe some will stay that way.

 

I know some dudes who had from 1-3 million worth of btc when it got up to $60k. Don’t know if they held or bailed. One guy got in at $900 many years ago and sold mid 50k. I’m guessing he had 70 coins by the time he sold. Me, I’m sitting on 490 million shibus. All I have left in it.

 

I've never understood it. Other than underneath the table payments, I don't get what value it ever had.

 

Crypto is a good times thing like everything else. Bitcoin will be back, at least. It may

Miners are still the real profit making folks, though.

 

Been buying on limit orders on the way down.

20 grand will be resistance I think it breaks that and will wick to 13k range.

But jumps back to the 18-20k range fast from that

 

Good luck. I could see it going to 2019 levels, which was like 3k. It's bled 50% YTD.