Trump Jobs Boom: 298k New Jobs in February

They don't accept that coal is no longer competitive, and have been politically manipulated to believe deregulation will save them. Maybe coupled with anti-tracking regs, but otherwise they are in a decline that has continued into the trump administration. Natural gas is also cleaner, and many areas with air quality issues are eager to shutter coal plants in favor of cheaper, cleaner, still heavily lobbied natural gas.


Don't get me wrong, Ng still produces co2 and bad stuff. But it is about 66% cleaner, doesn't require mining, easier and cleaner to move, and more likely to be partially sourced locally. Coal cannot compete.

 

As Norris suggested if people feel regulated that can have an impact by itself. Obama "felt" anti business and people therefore were reluctant to hire because of fear of what he might do. We saw a similar station during the carter to Reagan transition though carter was a lot more anti business than Obama

 

More coming online all the time.

 

An export market will begin to make an impact by 2020-2021. Likely even more so by 2025. That will cause prices to rebound. The question then is whether US gas just tracks oil price or whether international gas contracts become US-indexed to Henry Hub gas.

 

Honestly it's sad. Coal jobs disappearing is hard enough, but the people of coal country get sold on dreams that will never materialize. The hard truth is that the one good thing the region had had is gone, won't come back and things probably won't get better for a long time.

 

There's so much just being flared now as a waste product in the gulf that if the price went up would start vetting collected. We are the Saudi Arabia of ng.

 

No ash piles, either

 

Exactly right. You beat me to it. Also a lot of production that would come online if the price went up

 

Yep got to blame something/one.

Clinton's full remarks on coal:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/may/10/context-hillary-clintons-comments-about-coal-jobs/

So what was her plan to help these coal miners transition from an obsolete job?

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/factsheets/2015/11/12/clinton-plan-to-revitalize-coal-communities/
Honoring Our Commitments

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That got translated into, Hillary hates coal miners and wants their children to starve because the focus was on the putting a lot of coal companies out of business. Convenient that the plan to help miners transition out of a dangerous obsolete job into a job that would provide a healthier and more sustainable future was opposed by McConnell in the Senate and Hillary took the blame for being hostile towards coal. McConnell has had a sudden change of heart about this now. More on that below. Clinton should have pushed harder on the market forces killing coal instead of letting herself get saddled as being the Grim Reaper of coal.

Surprisingly, Mitch McConnell blocked measures to help miners pension and health funds in 2016:

http://www.wymt.com/content/news/Report-McConnell-blocked-efforts-to-rescue-health-pension-funds-for-miners-368574531.html

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Yet, McConnell had a miraculous change of heart only 11 months after blocking previous legislation to help miners. Here's an article dated Jan 23, 2017 explaining McConnell now being on board. Wonder what happened to prompt a change in his opinion?

http://wvmetronews.com/2017/01/23/capito-mcconnell-now-on-board-for-permanent-fix-to-help-retired-miners/

 

They voted out of desperation to avoid change and uncertainty, jay. As do many Americans. Change of some kind is inevitable and ignoring it is always folly.

 

The Trump economy started on election night. Rational (not sure if they're rational or not) expectations.

 

The great jobs report recalls a conversation I had with one of our MDs a couple weeks ago. He said the consensus is this administration will be good for the economy and jobs in the US, and the opinion is strong. He immediately followed that up with expect to see a significant and sustained increase in automation. A strong environment for business is expected to persist, but we should temper expectations where it concerns the longevity of added jobs. It's no fault of the current administration, rather a simple numbers game. The only thing holding back a lot of automation today are incredibly low offshore wages. When those wages rise above the tipping point automation becomes the only decision where it concerns the bottom line. And I'm not certain folks understand this is not limited to manufacturing roles; automation has crept into the grey and white collar space.

This is not intended as a 'Debbie Downer' post, but as something to keep in mind as we move forward. The overall environment for business will likely improve and persist, but the jobs situation is a different animal.

 

most jobs in this country are not suitable for replacement with automation though. i do think a lot of companies were investing in technology rather than hiring people because of the fear of the Obama administration. i don't see a long term job trump effect in addition to normal job growth you see during economic growth, but i do expect a short term one.

 

as an example i have a client who is the CEO of a household supply company and he told me flat out that they decided to invest in technology rather than hire people because they were concerned that the economy wouldn't do well under Obama and that basically if they have to fire someone that's a much larger cost than lowering the money they spend on technology. and this guy is no right winger by any stretch either.

 

I think more are, or soon will be, in scope than you might think. I fully agree with you on the short term job growth, though.

 

i'm of the belief that automation is going to be a net positive for this country long term, but we shall see.

 

I would be careful with this view. AI is making gigantic strides, and jobs we thought immune to automation are all susceptible.

 

I think it will be a net positive in the long term for humanity. But, and this is a big but, we will have to drastically change our world view on many things. And it is going to be a very painful transition.

 

i agree, but new jobs will replace it. that's the way the economy has worked forever.

 

depends what time frame we are talking about. historically i feel like people have overestimated the pace which these sort of advancements get made.