The Indy Talks To Himself (NBA) Thread.

Ja is something else. And hardly sweats. My 87 yr old mom watches every game and the replay. I wish I could get her to a game before she passes.

 

There are rumblings that Harden isn't happy and wants to leave, but the cap will make it difficult. From what I've read, his choices will essentially be Detroit, Orlando, or San Antonio. Yuck. I don't see him doing that.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them sign and trade him though.

I absolutely think trading Harden for Simmons + a role player or two would make the Nets better. Harden isn't exactly known for being good in the playoffs.

 

Why can't you?

 

I think they have legitimate concerns about him not wanting to be there. Harden is certainly "better" than Kyrie just based on availability alone. If there wasn't a vax mandate, and Kyrie was playing every game, are we sure that's still the case? Harden has struggled this year. Kyrie certainly has more postseason success to point back to. Obviously he had LeBron, but he was far from a slouch during those playoff runs.

I also think Ben Simmons is just an all around solid fit for the Nets. Phenomenal defender, okay scorer, above average distributor. He's also got that "aloof" vibe that KD and Kyrie have as well lol

 

I've reached out to the Grizz. Probably will again. Need transport and handicap area tickets but was also wanting her to meet a couple players if possible. There is no bigger hoops fan than her.

 

Why? Harden is one of the best passers on the planet and runs their offense, and adding him took their offense from "really good" to "unstoppable and arguably the best ever". They have 3 of the best scorers and shooters in the league (who fit together extremely well as a result), decent depth and turned it up on defense when they had to in the playoffs. And now you're trading your second-best player for someone who can't shoot and isn't close to the same fit offensively, because he's a little better on defense?

I think people are too obsessed with the idea of balance, and it contributed to Steph not getting his due for a while too. It's okay to be ridiculously great on offense and hold serve on defense, rather than trying to balance things and be closer to "good" on both ends. That trade hurts them much more on offense (and mutes the #1 advantage they have over their opponents) than it helps on D IMO.

 

We went to a Celtics game while visiting Boston when my fiance was on crutches after her ACL surgery. We didn't have any sort of special tickets, and they just put us in a handicap section. I don't even think we asked. They just kind of pointed it out to us and walked us down there. I'm guessing most arenas have those sections all over, but I'm sure you could research it online.

I'm guessing you'd have to figure out the transportation yourself. I don't know her situation, and it's really none of my business, but are you not able to get her there?

Meeting players would be cool, but seems like an "icing on top" sort of thing. If the goal is just getting her to a game, I think you can accomplish it relatively easily.

 

I think Harden's biggest value add to the team is his passing rather than his shooting/scoring. Ben Simmons isn't as good of a passer, but the drop off isn't super significant. They also have Kyrie as an additional ball handler/distributor, so it's not like losing Harden really hurts them that badly from a ball handling/distributing perspective. I also don't think losing his scoring is that big of a deal either. Kyrie and KD can always score more than they do when he's in the lineup, and Simmons will score his fair share as well.

The gap between Harden and Simmons as defenders is substantial - way larger than the gap between them as passers/distributors.

I just don't see their offense dropping off a ton, but I do see their defense improving quite a bit. And, again, Harden is a known playoff disappearing act. And if he doesn't want to be there? Bring in somebody who does.

 

Part of the reason the passing works is Harden's shooting. Simmons is a very good passer but having defenders play 10 feet off of him in the playoffs, to the point where it's essentially 4-on-5 a lot of the time, results in an impact on the offense much greater than just a small dropoff in passing ability.

Harden also took a team to 65 wins and Game 7 of the West finals, so I would certainly push back on the idea that he can't play in the playoffs (or that Kyrie is as good as him, available or not), and speaking of disappearing, Simmons scored like 1 4th-quarter basket in an entire series. Brooklyn also pushed the champs to the brink (and beat them by 40 in a playoff game) with 1.5 stars, and when healthy no one has stopped them at all.

No need to take the best team in the league when healthy and throw a wrinkle into their team construction/identity like that, especially when Brooklyn's offense is what generally carries them regardless. They're #17 in defensive efficiency anyway, I'd much rather have a historically great offense and that defense than a top 5-ish offense and the 13th-ranked defense. It makes no sense to me for Brooklyn to mess with what they already have, and I imagine that if Brooklyn felt otherwise they would have traded for Simmons months ago.

 

2015 WCF:

• Game 3: 3/16 from the field, 1/5 from 3, 17 points, 4 assists
• Game 5 (elimination game): 2/11 from the field, 0/3 from 3, 14 points, 5 assists, 12 turnovers

2017 WC Semis:

• Game 6 (elimination game): 2/11 from the field, 2/9 from 3, 10 points, 7 assists, 6 turnovers.

2018 WCF

• Game 5: 5/21 from the field, 0/11 from 3, 19 points, 4 assists, 6 turnovers.

It's well established that Harden's game doesn't translate to the postseason when refs tend to swallow the whistle more, and he has struggled in the biggest moments. Heck, even look at the games where he scored well in that series. 32 points in game 7, but on 2/13 from 3 and 5 turnovers. 32 points in game 6 on 4/12 from 3 and 9 turnovers. 27 points in game 2 on 3/15 from 3 and only 3 assists. The dude shot 26% from 3 and 41% from the field during that series. That's what you want to point to? I won't take the 65 regular season wins away from him, but that doesn't really matter if we are talking about playoff success. And most people credit Chris Paul as the main reason for that playoff run, not Harden.

I don't think Simmons is some sort of playoff star or anything, but when you have KD and Kyrie on your team, you don't really need more than 1 4th quarter basket out of anyone else. I'm not sitting here saying they NEED to make a move. But the stars aren't necessarily aligning for them to win it all this year, and the chatter about Harden being unhappy is real. I think Simmons would be a good fit.

 

His last healthy postseason Harden averaged 30-6-8 on 48% shooting (and 10 FTs a game). The season you're trying to pick individual games out from he averaged 29-5-7 on 41% shooting, and you skipped Game 1 against the Warriors when he had 41 on 58% shooting.

I think the idea that "most people credit Chris Paul" and not the MVP is made up; people wish CP was healthy for Game 7, but Harden was their leader in points, assists, PER, BPM, whatever you want. The notion that his game depends on free throws so he's always going to be bad in the playoffs (without thinking about the athleticism/strength that gets him FTs in the first place and doesn't go away) is lazy IMO.

If the stars don't align it's likely related to having Kyrie half the time. Exchanging Harden for Simmons doesn't help with that, and I'd much rather have Durant-Harden than Durant-Simmons as my core for home games. (We also don't know if that chatter about unhappiness is real, unless you're just saying it's real chatter. It's not like Philly has been the happiest place either.)

 

Yeah, and got bounced in the first round via gentleman's sweep. Worth noting that he shot 18% from the field and 17% from 3 in Game 4 of that series, as well as 25% from 3 in Game 5. So in the game to go down 3-1 and the elimination game, he had his worst games. They weren't even competitive in Game 5. The Lakers led by 30 points early in the 4th quarter.

I picked individual games out of 3 different seasons. I skipped Game 1 against the Warriors because the whole point of the playoffs being a 7 game series is that you have to be consistent. 1 great game doesn't really matter if you shit the bed in multiple other games of the same series, especially if those multiple other games include elimination games.

Well, the Rockets did get bounced from the Western Conference Semis by the Spurs in 6 in 2017. The main change they made to their roster was adding Chris Paul, and then they pushed the Warriors to 7 in 2018. CP3 brought a certain intangible toughness and mentality to that team that helped push them to the precipice of a Finals birth. Obviously Harden was a big part of it as well, but again, you're failing to acknowledge the trend and the well established notion in NBA circles that he's not the guy in the playoffs.

His game ABSOLUTELY depends on FT's. From 2013-2020 (8 seasons), he led the league in FT attempts 6 times and was top 3 in all 8. In that game I mentioned earlier where he shot 18% from the field, he still scored 21 points because he shot 20 damn free throws. I'm not saying he's bad in the playoffs. I'm saying that despite many opportunities, he has never performed at a high enough level consistently across a 7 game series to win anything of consequence. Durant has done it. LeBron and Steph have done it. Giannis. Even Kyrie. And there's data that supports the idea that Harden shrinks in the biggest games.

Philly has his guy, and his guy wants him. Also, the grass is always greener and what not.

 

Him not being the guy in the playoffs is not a "well-established notion in NBA circles." Casual fans and Bill Simmons or whoever are not NBA circles. Any NBA team would gladly trade for him immediately without freaking out about how he might turn into a pumpkin with 2 less free throws per game.

OK, well he was the best player (regular season and playoffs) on a team that got one win away from the Finals as the one and only team to challenge the KD Warriors, so there goes that. Led them to the WCF in 2015 as well, which means he's been there four times and twice as the best player. Has Kyrie won a single playoff series without LeBron?

 

It's not just that he gets 2 less free throws. His shooting percentage drops almost every year. From 2016-2019, he shot 44-45% from the field every regular season, and 41% every postseason. In 2013 and 2014, it dropped even further from 44% and 46% to 39% and 38% respectively. And his 3 point % gets worse too most postseasons:

• 2013 - 37% ----> 34%
• 2014 - 37% ----> 30%
• 2015 - 38% ----> 38%
• 2016 - 36% ----> 31%
• 2017 - 35% ----> 28%
• 2018 - 37% ----> 30%
• 2019 - 37% ----> 35%
• 2020 - 36% ----> 33%

Think about that. In 8 seasons that constitute most of his prime, he only improved on his FG% from regular season to postseason 1 time, and held steady 1 time. It dropped 75% of the seasons. From 3, he never improved in the post season, held stead once, dropped slightly once, and dropped moderately to precipitously multiple times. That happens because referees allow defenders to be more physical with him in the playoffs. He doesn't get the same calls he gets in the regular season, so his shooting percentages drop.

No, he hasn't, which is why I think it's funny that people bring him up in the LeBron/MJ debate. But he definitely didn't shrink in the big moments of their run, and you could make a case that that was when he shined the brightest (41 points on 71% from the field and from 3 in the first elimination game down 3-1 in 2016, as well as 40 on 56%/58% in first elimination game of 2017).

 

AD with 23 in the first half. If he gets back to what he used to be…

 

The playoffs are hard. It happens. Just about everyone, including LeBron, KD and Steph, has lower percentages from both 2s and 3s in the playoffs. KD's percentages decline even more than Harden's do but he (thankfully) doesn't have talking heads spinning it into a narrative that you buy all the way into.

Harden has been above 47% his last two playoff appearances anyway, including last year at like 60% of himself, so maybe he suddenly learned to play in the playoffs a couple years after his 4th trip to the WCF, or maybe the narrative was overblown in the first place.

 

Fan voting only counts 50% now and that's still too much. Andrew Wiggins has no business being an All-Star starter.

 

It's not just a "narrative." There is data and factual information out there that supports various positions about Harden struggling in the playoffs, and more specifically in the playoff games that actually matter (elimination games and games to go down 3-1). I could look up others, but I know one was that Harden has shot below 20% in 8 different playoff games. LeBron, Kobe, Durant, and Jordan have combined to do that just twice. He's also got the most 20%/20% or worse playoff games (8) in NBA history.

Again, you're referencing him being "above 47%" in his last 2 playoff appearances. That includes the game 4 against the Lakers that effectively ended his season, and he shot 2/11 from the field and 1/6 from 3. That's not a positive thing for Harden, even if his shooting percentage for the series was decent. In the game that mattered, he mailed it in, and his team went down 3-1 and was essentially done. That series is further evidence of Harden not showing up in big playoff moments, and you're trying to turn it into a positive for him. And again, that doesn't even mention that they were down THIRTY early in the 4th quarter in game 5 (elimination game).

I'm not saying Harden is "bad" in the playoffs, but he doesn't give you what you'd expect based on his all-time great regular season resume, and if you're counting on him in an elimination game or an effective elimination game, the numbers show that a 2/11 shooting performance may be as likely as a good performance.

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...e-deals-chinese-companies-linked-forced-labor

 

Pointing to cherrypicked designer stats and cherrypicked individual games is not going to help your argument that this isn't narrative-driven. Harden has always been prone to bad FG% games regular season or playoffs (which people in "NBA circles" know already), including the 2/11 game you're talking about where he made 16/20 FTs and ended up with 21, 10 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks. Like I said, everyone's FG% drops in the playoffs and KD's and Curry's drop by more than Harden's does, so I'm sure we could go through and cherrypick games into a narrative for them as well.

He has good playoff stats recently, but those don't matter because winning is what matters. OK, he's won 13 different playoff series and been to the conference finals 4 times, including coming back from down 3-1 against the same Chris Paul that you're claiming was Houston's 1A (lol), but those don't matter because his stats weren't good enough in 5 cherrypicked games over a decade. The goalposts are all over the place, which isn't surprising because they aren't based on anything.