Name an electable Republican candidate not named Mitt Romney.

Easy transition.

 

So what? Obama will cast him as a rube, or a corporate criminal, neither of which the American public will buy. He can't use that card against him knowing they'll turn the tables.

 

So what? So why should we put another know-nothing in the White House?

 

Answer these two questions: Why won't electable Republican candidates touch this election, and why are they already raising money for 2016? They know how difficult it will be and are preparing for the future, see Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan as two examples.

Look at every state that Obama won and ask yourself, "What would it take for him to lose it?" I think the only states in question -- short of the DOW completely tanking -- are NC, FL, OH and VA. Any candidate that can escape the primary and piece together a puzzle to win those four states has the election. 3 out of 4 and they might win. But that will be difficult. The DNC is putting their chips in NC already with the convention being placed in Charlotte.

 

At this point Obama has a presidential record that speaks for itself. He ran on change, at this point in his reign many voters would jump on that with a different option.

 

I haven't done any serious looking at numbers or whatnot but I think it's apparent that Republicans are a lot more energized about the upcoming election than democrats.

 

Who said we should? The American public replaced Warren Harding with Calvin Coolidge. They replaced Millard Fillmore for Franklin Pierce. Never underestimate the American public.

 

But they need energy in key states, that's all. There was tremendous energy for John Kerry in Pennsylvania and everyone lost their mind when he trounced Bush there in 2004. Then Bush won Ohio by a slim margin and it was game, set match.

 

Which voters, and where? Let's be honest: Tell me which states he will lose in 2012 that he won in 2008? Only 4 of 13 incumbents have lost in the 20th century. It is hard to do.

Look, never underestimate the power of the Democrats to screw something up. But the math will have to work out for Obama to be unseated.

 

Where is the energized voter turnout gonna come from? It was easy to spot in 08'. Im not sold on them thinking their investment worked out.

 

Obama won the election because he got folks in places like the outer ring suburbs of Raleigh, NC, Washington, DC, and Columbus, OH to vote for him. The black vote and young people helped some... but he won in 2008 because upper middle class whites came out for a Democrat stronger than anyone had seen in recent memory.

 

You think they are jumping up and down to get to the polls in next year? Im not sure his true base is even energized, much less the middle he needs to win and got before.

 

People in those areas always vote. Obama flipped them. Will a Perry or Romney be enough to flip them back? I don't know.

I am not saying Obama can't lose. He can, and all sorts of personal trials or external travesties can haunt him. But it is all about strategy in the key states, and how the presumptive Republican candidate casts Obama. Karl Rove and Mark McKinnon ran a brilliant brilliant campaign that wrecked John Kerry in 2004 by arguing he was an out-of-touch elitist who liked to wind-surf, flip flop and throw away war medals. President Bush recast the election by deflecting all attention away from his foibles and onto the candidate. It worked.

Imagine now that David Axlerod has roughly a year to tee off on Romney or Perry. Incumbents have the advantage of not having to "run" two races. So they sit there, and they circle NC and VA and OH... and then they attack, and attack, and attack.

 

Obama can win the election if all of the focus is on the challenger, and everybody forgets he is running. I agree with that part. Just not sure he can pull that off with UE at 9+ and the economy in the tank. He said himself he shouldn't get a second term in that case, and recently even said americans are not better off now than 3 years ago.

 

No doubt about that. No incumbent has won with unemployment over 8-percent I believe. Also there is some talk that California might be in play, which would basically sink his ship. I have to be honest -- I have argued with a buddy at work for weeks how Obama can lose, and he is convinced he is invincible. It has been interesting taking the other side of this.

I do think there is a strategy to defeat him that does not include the economy completely tanking. If the economy tanks he will get Herbert Hoovered, obviously.

 

on OP - Huntsman.

On key states - I think Obama is on his own; he's alienated many of his behind the scenes folks. I think he's in worse shape than the polls suggest. Think Romney would be a landslide

 

I think the only reason people think Obama is invincible is because they don't think the press will turn on him and will continue to carry his administration's water.

Outlets like MSNBC will always make excuses, but I think the other agencies, if they ever want to be taken seriously again, will turn against Obama. That's not saying they're going to suddenly start spouting GOP talking points, I just think that CNN, ABC, CBS and many newspapers will lurch back to the center and assume the role they're meant to play in American politics.

 

Haha. I love it.

 

I think that a flip is definitely possible, but I'm pretty sure Perry can't swing it. Romney may be able to, but he is so damn unremarkable. Voter turnout is going to be a reasonable factor in this election, and that will only hurt Obama. There are going to be a lot of folks who don't care to vote given the inspiration they felt in 08 and the subsequent disappointment. So, that eases the game in some ways, for the GOP. I just don't see Perry being able to capitalize on the swing voters. With that said, Romney worries me in some ways because I just have no idea what we are getting with him.

 

For Obama to win/lose it is as simple as this.

Do the following get as energized and come out to vote in 12?

1 african americans
2 college students/young adults
3 middle class moderates who just want something different and this generations JFK

If the answer to those are no, then he is in a lot of trouble. To date, that seems to be what the answer is, but there is still a lot of time to go. But as clinton said, its the economy stupid.