I don't see this. Unless Obama wins again, which I see as highly unlikely, the winner in 12 is extremely likely to win in '16. The guys raising money now for 16 would be best served to figure out how to be VP.
About the African American vote, it clearly had an effect in NC. But states with the highest African American increase were states Obama lost -- Mississippi, Georgia, and Louisiana. I am not sure about VA. I think the "young vote" and "black vote" thing is partially a myth. To your third point, you are totally correct. Now, Obama will hang around the South as a reminder to African Americans -- and he has some kissing up to do -- but he is really there courting whites in Richmond, Raleigh, etc.
i don't see the students and minorities coming out in force this time. they didn't care the 50+ elections before that. hard to imagine this is a trend rather than an aberation.
That's what I am trying to figure out. Why Rubio, Ryan, Daniel, Christie, etc. would pass on a highly vulnerable Obama, if he is indeed, vulnerable?
Easily. I still believe Romney could get a minimum of a 5 point win and maybe more. There were some interesting comments from Jake Tapper of ABC News where he basically said he was talking with some New York libs and they were rationalizing how they could vote for Romney. I honestly think lots of Obama supporters are looking for an out and Romney could be that out. Daniels definitely would have been.
You have to think the Republican apathy caused by watching Bush bumble about for 8 years as been erased by Obama.
"Bush's fault" lasted for a while. If it did resonate that it was true, people are wondering why its worse now.
I may be wrong (hope I'm not) but I think there is a lot of buyer's remorse with Obama in mod-Dem/Independent land. I think they'll make atonement votes this year even if they don't like the option. Also, I think stuff is piling up on Obama (Solyndra, Fast and Furious, etc.) to the point where the press is going to start being more critical (as MG pointed out). I think he's in big trouble unless someone like Bachmann gets the R - nom. I still say Romney cruises and Huntsman likely would to. Daniels definitely would. I think Guiliani would cruise, Christie would cruise, etc.
Good insights. Are there states you see in play that otherwise would be solidly Blue? You think a Republican could win Oregon or Washington, or sneak up and take New Jersey or Maryland? Is California in play? Missouri looks solidly red as far as I can tell. Still not sure about NC and VA at the moment. The Republicans will bring the house to get Florida and Ohio.
Listening to Herman he makes sense. He's not a polished politician, (which normally wins) but I like his approach and his ideas in general.
I've heard Herman Cain a lot over the years filling in for Boortz on the radio (OK I gave myself away there) and I like a lot of his ideas and approach as well. Just don't think he's electable right now, but who knows.
Cain says brilliant stuff, then follows it up with something stupid. Not sure he could last in the general election.
I agree. The political savy (which you have to have to win an election) is lacking, but I think he could do a good job given his ideas.
Romney is going to kick Obama's ass. Obama just has to much shit against him. National debt, healthcare, solyndra, wants to spend more. Yeah Obama brought change alright. A change for the worst. Perry is looking desperate and just looks like a plain idiot sometimes and he's from Texas need I say more. Cain is a decent candidate but has no experience in other political aspects(foreign affairs). Any other candidates just don't even come close. Hope I'm not coming off as a [penis] but just my thoughts.
Surely you jest? I can't understand anyone who was stupid enough to fall for his BS the first time around, much less vote for him after seeing the moron in action. This is an 'anybody but Obama' election.