COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Slopes of the 7 day moving average are still half of what they were in July, but we're starting from a place twice as high. And you are right, there aren't any behavior changes. It is definitely possible that we're in the 75-100k new cases per day range by mid November, early December.

 

Was there dramatic changes With behavior in July/August either though?

 

Yea, mask requirements and adoption with private business. Closing bars. Decreasing capacity indoors. Weather.

 

people were doing whatever in June, because it was "over" and the heartland was unaffected in large part. when numbers went up and the heartland was seeing it too, masks came back out and people backed off the gatherings again.

now we have school and we have people just sick of having to live like hermits. and we also have it more widespread throughout the country.

 

Mask use was OK here in Houston in June. Not great but not ignored. Since I came back in August I’ve noticed pretty much everyone masks now.

As for social circles, house parties, etc., it’s hard to say.

But we are looser now in some ways. For example since the kids are in school, we let them play with classmates now after school or on weekends. My daughter has a classmate down the street and my other daughter did a play date after school yesterday.

 

plus using outdoor space to keep businesses functioning is about to go away.

 

I think one of the best ideas I’ve seen people talking about when it comes to mitigation is the idea of a COVID budget.

Like weight watchers but for COVID.

You have a set number of points each week - that varies based on extent of infection in your area. You budget your points out. Going to grocery is a certain number. Playing in the park. Coffee outdoor with a friend.

Pretty helpful concept.

 

Not everywhere, but yes, if you operate a service industry business in cold weather areas.

 

I just don’t think that’s true.

I think we all discussed this on here in the second spike.

the general public stopped bunkering down once the riots and protests started and was supported in the media

 

I wish people with kids would treat it like a stomach bug.

"Yeah, my kid's shitting and puking everywhere"

People act like it's the bubonic plague, no one bothers you.

You got the rona? Hell, it's just a bad cold, you can't live in fear

 

this is kind of how I do it, and if we blow our budget, we don't do anything around other people for 10 days or so.

but we also always have a mask on outside the home. because that's easy.

 

you've had different narratives than what I see all along. I said people were doing whatever, and whatever included that, and crowded beaches, and some fraction refusing to wear masks. if you want to make it about protesters, have at it but don't expect me to forget how to read a map about where the spikes occurred.

Herd immunity any day now, right? Any day...

 

My wife was the one talking to them and we already weren't going, she told them it was probably a bad idea to still have it, but they said they'd be "safe".

 

My son listens to Isbell, Childers, and Jinks nonstop. I've done well.

 

You seem to still struggle with this besides your political beliefs. I didn't say riots or protesters drove the spread, even though it had to add to it in some areas, but that it changed public proception on lockdowns.

If they're watching thousands packed together protesting, and getting told that's okay, but [uck fay] you on your backyard BBQ.

The public started saying to hell with it




This is what I think we should follow. We're seeing herd immunity benefits in places, but it isn't a total coverage and a light switch that gets flipped on and off. But the only way this ends is herd immunity. So to attack that is crazy, since it's basic biology. It will either come naturally or with a vaccine.

I just think we should protect at risk populations and the healthy and young live their lives.

We're going to doubling world poverty rates and a lot of people will starve and die from the lockdowns not related to the virus.

The spread in Tennessee is now located mostly in rural East Tennessee areas that were spread from heavy infections earlier.

Metro areas in Tennessee have went through their wave and is coming

 

Mine all like Buck Naked by Hank Jr

 

This can't be done. Nobody is more protected than the President of the United States, and he got it.

He's the poster child of an at risk individual.

Most people his age don't have helos to whisk them to their private wing in a hospital, so 7 physicians can attend to them, with every known possible medication on the table.

It cannot be done. We either accept that we cannot protect, and move on with the knowledge, whatever happens, or not.

And as far as herd immunity, Sweden is even showing a 4 week rise, and is starting to add more restrictions, now that their summer months are over.

 

There’s no absolutes.

the vaccine(s) is going to carry risk and not be 100% either.


Sweden has saw an increase after expanding testing so probably more like catching cases that were already happening.

deaths have remained flat

 

if it flips on and off, it isnt herd immunity.

The median household size in Sweden is very small. we know from the US and Italy that larger median household sizes correspond to higher number if cases.

 

A vaccine will be waaaaaay more effective than just "carrying on."

Your comparison is like saying, oh, If I cut my finger, that could kill me, might as well blow my head off.

Sweden's increase is still occurring, and deaths lag cases. Usually by about 4 weeks.