fivethirtyeight.com claims there are no trap games... but kind of flubbed the analysis

Discussion in 'Sports' started by IP, Nov 12, 2021.

  1. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Here's their article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/upsets-happen-in-college-football-trap-games-not-so-much/

    They compare "trap game" winning percentage vs "all games against unranked opponents," and conclude that because the win percentages are similar, there is no evidence of a trap game.

    Anyone see the obvious broken logic here? They did not look at the independent variable... independently. There is no control group. This is a site I frequent often for sports and other things, and RELIABLY find fallacies in their work such that it seems likely that they attempted to work backwards from a conclusion to support it.

    If you separate trap games from non-trap games, you get 143-21 (.872) for trap games, and 1018-128 (.888). Does this significantly change the picture? No, not really. But their methodology didn't make sense.

    What about their interpretation? Is the difference between 87.2 % and 88.8 % in a 16-season sample meaningful? Would controlling for other meaningful factors such as P-5 opponents, annual rivals, etc change the picture? After all, I have never heard an FCS opponent be called a trap game seriously, let alone a non P-5 unranked team. And what about Top 5 teams only? Or Top 15? Top 25? Perhaps the "trap" effect becomes more notable looking at different thresholds for being the trappee? I don't have the time right this moment to dive into that, but I think a more complete definition of a "trap game" besides "unranked opponent" would be interesting to look at.
     
  2. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

    The thing is, what is the definition of a trap game?
     
  3. lumberjack4

    lumberjack4 Chieftain

    Depends what the definition of "is" is.
     
    Ssmiff likes this.
  4. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Well they looked at Top 10 teams who played an unranked opponent right after a ranked opponent. I'm saying that isn't really a good definition of a trap game. The "trap" isn't just anyone, it would need to be a credible unranked team.
     
  5. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    Would a trap game not be a game against a less opponent sandwiched between two big games?
     
    AbeFroman likes this.
  6. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    That sounds more like a trap game than "unranked opponent"
     
  7. NorrisAlan

    NorrisAlan Founder of the Mike Honcho Fan Club

    "I know it when I see it"
     
  8. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    That there is even the slight edge towards unranked opponents after a ranked game for top 10 teams leads me to believe there IS something to trap games, if one narrowed what constituted a trap game to something more specific.
     
  9. CardinalVol

    CardinalVol Uncultured, non-diverse mod

    That's how I have always defined it in my head.

    I'd call what they call a trap game a "letdown game".
     
  10. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    Ya, which one would expect to not be super prevalent compared to just playing an unranked team in general, hence why it is so damn disappointing.
     
  11. utvol0427

    utvol0427 Chieftain

    tl;dr?
     
    NorrisAlan likes this.
  12. JohnnyQuickkick

    JohnnyQuickkick Calcio correspondent

    We’ve had at least 5 to 7 trap games on our schedule every year since 2010
     
    NorrisAlan likes this.
  13. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    classic line.
     
  14. IP

    IP Super Moderator

    You have to be a top 10 team to have a trap game, in how they framed it.
     
  15. fl0at_

    fl0at_ Humorless, asinine, joyless pr*ck

    We've been the trap, playing those ranked teams, making them trap games.
     
  16. JohnnyQuickkick

    JohnnyQuickkick Calcio correspondent

    No, dumbasses, every time we lose it was obviously a trap game
     
  17. Ssmiff

    Ssmiff Went to the White House...Again

    Italian humor
     
  18. warhammer

    warhammer Chieftain

    Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
     

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