Give Him Time! Coaches That Take a Long Time to Start Winning

This post probably would've been more useful two weeks ago, but I just decided to research now, so here you go late. Feel free to use any of these statistics as you please in arguments with the remaining 10 sunshine pumpers. I might post something similar on VN--I haven't been over there in a while.

I know I'm not the only one who keeps hearing about all these other good coaches who took forever to start winning. Most of them had championships to fall back on. Dooley doesn't. Everyone gets that. But the remaining sunshiners (way less cool than moonshiners BTW) still think that maybe, just maybe, Dooley will do the same thing. He has no track record to say he will, but if championship coaches struggled like he is, then the record doesn't definitively show he won't.

In response, I thought I'd look up some numbers with respect to the three most commonly-cited names: Saban (MSU, four mediocre years), Spurrier (USC, five mediocre years), and Majors (UT, four bad years). Their records were all as bad or almost as bad as Dooley's. You know that. Their track records were better. You know that too. But was there anything other than their track record that made the administrations overlook poor records. You tell me.

***Michigan State record vs Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State in the four years before Saban: 1-11
***Michigan State record vs Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State in Saban's first four years: 4-4.
***Record vs ranked teams in Saban's first four years: 4-10.
***Ranked teams beaten: #7 Michigan (year one), #4 Penn State (year three), #10 Notre Dame (year four), #1 Ohio State (year four)

Of course, this isn't a fair comparison, because almost all of the ranked teams Dooley has played were in the top ten, and beating top ten teams is an unreasonable expectation.

***South Carolina record vs Clemson, Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia in the three years before Spurrier: 0-12
***South Carolina record vs Clemson, Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia in Spurrier's first five years: 6-14 (he never went a year without beating at least one of the four biggest annual rivals)
***Record vs ranked teams in Spurrier's first five years: 7-17
***Ranked teams beaten: #25 Tennessee (year one), #12 Florida (year one), #25 Clemson (year two), #12 Georgia (year three), #8 Kentucky (year three), #4 Ole Miss (year five), #15 Clemson (year five)

***Tennessee record vs Alabama and Auburn (these were the two biggest rivals at the time, right?) the three years before Majors: 1-5
***Tennessee record vs Alabama and Auburn in Majors' first four years: 2-6
***Record vs ranked teams in Majors' first four years: 2-11
***Ranked teams beaten: #13 Notre Dame (year three), #18 Auburn (year four).

Even in another era where turnarounds were always slower, the turnaround was faster.

***Tennessee record vs Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina the four years before Dooley: 7-9
***Tennessee record vs Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in Dooley's first 2.5 years: 0-10
***Tennessee record vs ranked teams in Dooley's first 2.5 years: 0-13
***Ranked teams beaten: #12 Montana (FCS)

 

Speaking of this, John Feinstein said today on 104.5 The Zone that "Dean Smith and Mike Kryzewski would have both been fired after only 3 years." Said Dooley needs another year. I have not looked up their records so don't kill me if this is not right but that's what he said.

 

You would figure he would at least have tried to use a Football reference.

PS: easier to turn around basketball because of fewer players.

 

Feinstein didn't use a college football reference because he doesn't know the first [dadgum] thing about it.

 

Spurrier's wins over UT and UF in year one were about the equivalent for that program of Dooley winning this Saturday.

 

Hell holtz did more at USCe than Dooley has done here.

 

Yep, hatvol pointed that out in a more timely thread a couple weeks ago IIRC. 1-10 to 9-4 in two years.

 

I would be willing to put any amount of money he wanted that Dooley will not win a Conference Championship as a HC within the next 10 years at UT or wherever he lands.

 

And that was back when UT, UGA, and UF were all strong and essentially guaranteed losses for SC.

 

Can somebody list the coaches who started off sucking and just sucked forever?

I bet it is longer.

 

Saban in first 3 years at Bama - 1 SECC and 1 BCSC,
Meyer in first 3 years at UF - 1 SECC and 1 BCSC
Richt in first 3 years at UGA - 1 SECC
Chizik in first 3 years at Auburn - 1 SECC and 1 BCSC
Miles first 3 years at LSU - 1 SECC and 1 BCSC
Dan Mullen first 3 years at Miss State - wins over UGA, UF, Michigan
Spurrier first 3 years at USC - Wins over UT, UF, Clemson, UGA
Petrino first 3 years at Arkansas - Wins over Auburn(2), LSU(2), UGA

What does Dooley have to hang his hat on during his 1st 3 years?

 

That's pretty evident considering he couldn't win the WAC. His predecessor and successor, however, both managed to do so.

I know this has been stated ad nauseam. I just felt like it was the proper response.

 

Yet the Dumbazz thinks we should keep him. I don't get it.

 

Nice work. The people who can read figures have already converted at VN though.

 

Hell that's just coaches in the SEC. Look at what Stoops, Harbaugh, Hoke, Pelini, Carroll, Mack Brown,Sarkisian, and Brian Kelly have done in their first three years. I tried making that point at the other place and was shouted down with the "attrition" argument. That never gets old I guess.

 

Welcome, bostonvol! Do you ever go to the watch parties that used to be at The Greatest Bar? I hit a couple of those when I was up there in 2009.

 

Nice to see you over here, BV. You'll find that logic still exists and thrives here.

 

I don't live there anymore. I am currently in Lexington, Ky finishing my education. But to answer your question of course I have been there. It's a must.

 

Orange pants

 

Where?

My wife is a UK grad, and I have friends that went to Georgetown and Transy.