I play weekly pick-em contests against the spreads with some old co-workers so I try to keep up with a bit of everything relevant. When doing some Sunday surfing I decided to see how well UT REALLY stacks up and this blew me away. First off, I basically looked up the UGA stats after one of my family members disagreed with me on Facebook about precious keeping his job. They hailed the near win against Georgia as something special. Let's start with them shall we? Georgia - 6-1 - Win over TN I think UGA is severely overrated as its playing out. They have beaten Buffalo (1-6, with their win over FCS Morgan State), Missouri (3-4 with biggest win over Arizona State), Florida Atlantic (1-6 with only win over Wagner), Vandy (3-4 with best win over Missouri), Tennessee (3-4 with our best win over NC State and we had to pull away in the 4th quarter over that scrappy 1 win Akron team), and Kentucky (1-7 with their sole win over Kent State). And UGA lost to South Carolina who has basically beaten no one besides Georgia. So everyone that is beating their chest with the fact that we barely lost to Georgia just let this statistic seep in just a bit. The games that Georgia has won - the teams that they beat have a combined record of 12-31 which equates to roughly a 28% winning percentage. North Carolina State 5-2 - Loss to Tennessee Wins over: UConn (3-5 with a signature win over Maryland), South Alabama (2-5 with signature win over Florida Atlantic this weekend), Citadel (FCS 4-3), FSU (7-1 good win over Clemson), Maryland (4-3 with signature win over Wake Forest). These teams combined record: 20-17. But, the Citadel is FCS and Maryland still has to play Georgia Tech, Clemson, FSU, and UNC. Georgia State 1-7 - Loss to Tennessee. Not going to recap since they are FCS. However, I will point out their only win is over Rhode Island who hasn't won a game. Florida 7-0 - Win over Tennessee. Wins over: Bowling Green (5-3 with a signature win over Miami OH), Texas A&M (5-2 with signature win over Louisiana Tech), Tennessee (3-4), Kentucky (1-7 with only win over Kent State), LSU (7-1 with signature win over South Carolina or A&M), Vandy (3-4 with signature win over Missouri), South Carolina (6-2 with signature win over Georgia). Combined record: 30-25 Akron 1-7 - Loss to Tennessee. Their only win is over Morgan State who is only 3-4 themselves and their best win was over a 3-4 North Carolina A&T team. Mississippi State 7-0 - Win over Tennessee Wins over: Jackson State (FCS 4-4 signature win over Texas Southern), Auburn (1-6 and only win over Louisiana Monroe), Troy (4-3 with signature win over North Texas), South Alabama (2-5 with signature win over Fla Atlantic I guess. Both of their wins were to teams with only 1 win), Kentucky (1-7 with that sole win once again over Kent State), Tennessee (3-4), Middle TN State (4-3 with signature win over GA Tech). Combined record: 19-32 - 37% Alabama 7-0 - Win over Tennessee Wins over: Michigan (5-2 with signature win this weekend over Michigan State which may not be saying much), Western KY (5-2 with signature win over Kentucky), Arkansas (3-4 with signature win over Auburn), Fla Atlantic (1-6 only win over FCS Wagner), Ole Miss (4-3 with signature win over Auburn, they've literally not beaten anyone with a pulse), Missouri (3-4 with signature win over AZ State), Tennessee (3-4). Combined record: 24-25. I know that's alot to digest but it basically says a couple of things to me. First and foremost Georgia is about to be exposed for being overrated if these stats don't lie. We've beaten Georgia State who has won 1 game over a WINLESS Rhode Island team, Akron with one win over Morgan State who is 3-4 and hangs their hat on a win over a 3-4 NC A&T team and NC State who is actually decent at 5-2 and they did shock everyone with the win over FSU. However, NC States tale has not been told yet with games still to play against UNC, Wake, and Clemson. Their season could go either way at this point. All in all I say this in all honesty. South Carolina will stomp us, Troy will scare the crap out of us, Missouri is a tossup, Vandy will beat us, and Kentucky has a punchers chance as well depending on how these other games go. Ain't it great to be a fan of the Tennessee Vols right now under the fearless leadership of [ddiapos]?
I'm still pretty skeptical about the proposition that NC State is decent. They may beat UNC, just because they always beat UNC, and three of the other four teams on their schedule are really, really bad (Wake Forest, Virginia, Boston College). But I remain convinced from watching their games against us, UConn, and Miami that they're really not good at all. Actually, I watched part of the FSU game, and it looked more like FSU got back on the plane after three quarters. The ACC schedule means we could well be looking at a win over a 9-3 team, but I'm pretty sure they're lucky they don't have to play Duke. Renfree would carve them up.
Thanks for putting this together, but I strongly disagree with your last paragraph. We won't lose to Vandy, Missouri, or UK, or Troy (though we may not completely blow Troy out either). I don't think USCjr will stomp us, but we won't beat them. We have lost to four teams who have a combined record of 27-1. Whether you think they are all overrated or not, they are all still VERY good as far as their records go. And frankly, I think all of college football is down right now. The teams we lost to may not be as good as their rankings and records say, but who do you honestly suggest is better? The only non SEC teams that I would legitimately put into the UF, Bama, USCjr, UGA category are KState, Oregon, Oklahoma, and maybe Notre Dame. There just aren't that many "great" teams right now.
"But the teams they've lost to are AWESOME so how can you expect Dooley to be better?" Wes Rucker today, paraphrased.
Last time I looked, we still should expect to be within a short hair of winning every game. Rucker is FOS.
People said the same thing last year, and we are much better than we were last year. I just don't buy it. We are an average team. We beat the teams we are supposed to beat, and we lose badly to the teams we are supposed to lose to.
Vandy may be motivated, but they are not well-coached. That said, I'm not even sure we're better than we were last year. I guess we're better than last November, but with 2011 taken pre-injury? Hunter has gotten worse, and our defense has fallen off a cliff. The run game is the only thing to get better (although it's gotten MUCH better)
