According to this Athletic article, we must have a pretty good shot: https://theathletic.com/1910867/202...k-what-the-past-can-tell-us-about-the-future/ They don't talk about Tennessee directly, but rather Elite 11 QBs and their history of success over the history of the camp. They organized them into these groupings: exceed (AA, Heisman, Natty, first rounder, type), hit (multi-year consistent starter, or 1 yr as all-conference), pass (avg level starter), miss (not a starter), and too soon. Reminder of Tennessee Elite 11 QBs who have played: Guarantano (they evaluate as a "pass," with a chance of being a "hit" with a good season), Dobbs (hit), Bray (pass, I guess they see it as he did not have sustained success but was a P-5 starting QB), Crompton (pass), Clausen (hit). Well, we have Kaidon Salter committed and also have two Elite 11 QBs on the roster already besides JG: Harrison Bailey and Brian Maurer. The historical calculated chances for "exceed" was 11% and "hit" was 31% (and these were discrete calculations, i.e. the "exceeds" did not count as "hits" as well). In other words, each of these guys has a 42% chance of at least getting to the point of being 1 yr all-conference, multi year consistent starter status or better. I am going to take a stab at calculating the cumulative probability of this occurring, so as to trigger someone else to come along and give it the ole, "actually..." treatment and tell us what the odds actually are. Guarantano has 1 playing year left. Harrison Bailey has 4. Brian Maurer has 3. Salter has 4. Total, that is 12 spins of the wheel. There is a 99.9% that at least one of these dudes gets to the threshold of being a "hit" or exceed it. There is a 75% chance that at least one of these dudes has an "exceeds" type season... But are seasons the way to approach this? Probably not. Probably each player needs to be considered as an individual "chance." If so, there is an 89% chance at least one of them being a "hit" or better and there is a 37.3% at least one of them "exceeds." Based on history. Maybe. If I am calculating that right. The best way to find the right answer to something is to post a wrong answer online.
Yes, I updated the thread title to clarify. I've been coming back to this post while working on things, pecking it out a bit at a time so it is kind of disjointed and ranty.
Would it really be 12 spins though? Say JG plays next year, and Bailey RS. That would still use up a Maurer “spin”, without actually getting any playing time. I’d imagine the chances of hitting a pass or exceeds while sitting on the bench are far lower than 43%.
I was looking at his players’ stats through his career. It’s pretty incredible. 21 years as a DI HC or OC. 0 1,000 yard rushers. Not a single one. 20 out of 21 years, his QB passed for at least 3,400 yards. The one year he didn’t have a guy get at least 3,400, he had 2 different guys go for 1,800+ each. 13 years with a 4,000+ guy. 5 years with a 5,000+. (and these were non-discrete calculations, i.e. the "4,000+" does count as "5,000+" as well) 4 of the Top 10 all time passing yardage seasons - and 7 of the top 25 all-time - including #1 & #2 all-time leaders.
Hes going to be a pain in the butt to play in the coming years and may have enough coaching and speed on defense for a change. Btb weeeks playing bama or auburn or lsu then go to starkville to play ms st may be a day to bet the mortgage on him picking a tired and beat up team apart.
I have not accounted for that. Good point, because we lost an Elite 11 to transfer to Arizona in the early 2000's, who ended up being a "hit"
But the odds we are basing this on applied to individuals, not teams. So we can't extrapolate the "spins" to Tennessee without reducing it to being the same odds as an individual in a given year times the number of years we have an Elite 11 player on the roster, which we actually don't even have odds for. As @warhammer pointed out, the real issue with my approach is that it doesn't account for guys leaving if they aren't starting (which does in a round-about way relate to your point-- we know QB's won't sit for 3 years very often.)
I dread hearing the smatter of boos from the finest of our drunk fans when JG's name is announced pregame. Is it bad to hope for a very minor injury to put him on the bench? Its minor and we are probably going to need him off the bench again soon anyway, but imagine the energy should Bailey get the nod. Won't happen, but we can dream.
I'd take JG healthy and weathering a smattering of boo-birds over him unhealthy. Let them play it out.
I'd say there's a good to great chance we won't be seeing JG this year. Or any other player for that matter.
In the next 4 years I'd say pretty high... Bailey is really good. He doesn't have to be all conference, just "All conference type" meaning in the discussion... Ill go with 90 %
Kaidon Salter is elite. Regardless of who the incumbent is, Salter will challenge for the starting job as soon as he's on campus.
With the offensive line they'll eventually field and Cheney teaching it'll likely come down to which QB's personality gels with the offensive personnel rather than just on QB talent. I think it'll be Bailey.
