Support which? The national trend: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS California: Zillow has it from 2016, but I believe the headlines in 2018 were that it was up well over 100% over the past 10 years. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/9/ca/ Denver: this is from a year ago, you can see that it has been stepping up continuously for awhile: https://www.9news.com/article/money...arket/73-a65f8512-7f6e-42f1-973a-411142f17b8e
I don’t understand how the inflation is Bidens fault when Trump handed out the PPP loans and had interest rates at 0/near 0 for most of his tenure. I’m not necessarily blaming Trump either, Covid was a [itch bay] and it kept things running. I’m just saying you can’t print money for 3 years and not expect consequences.
I don't think it had much to do with that at all. I think it was the supply shocks and then many companies taking advantage. That's why profits are so up everywhere instead of being flat.
I didn’t mean with respect to specific markets, but thanks. Your first link will do, it shows the majority of increase in prices in the past 3 years, dwarfing the increase from 2008 to 2020. And that’s before we take into account the rising rates. So yes, I was right here.
I guess I’ve been posting more here than anyone who’s knocking Biden admin, but to be clear I’m not blaming Biden for the inflation. Reasonable people can debate the extent to which his administration’s policies have helped or hurt but it was happening whether he became President or not. That said, he and his administration do deserve criticism for their horrific messaging.
I will be honest, I did not pay much attention until "W's" tour and the wonky Iraqi war accounting. I still don't know enough to have an intelligent conversation like you guys, other than to agree the current Administration's messaging has not been very good. So, I will sit back and listen.
It hasn’t been a long trend, that’s factually incorrect. Housing affordability didn’t increase 2011-2020, and then after Covid it skyrocketed. Edit: Sorry I guess you may have meant just prices, which did slowly increase post recession. I’m talking housing affordability because that’s the bigger driver on consumer sentiment.
No you don’t have it pegged and populism is gaining because globalism is breaking down and in my opinion dead. the cities saw it first due to their local restrictive policies that slows and makes building harder while being in an artificially low interest rate environment near 0%.
Right around 15% cpi using their method then. Here’s a good article about the changes. https://www.fedsmith.com/2023/04/19/inflation-severity-depends-how-its-measured/#
Okay wait. If inflation has been hovering around 10% for over 20 years... How is that possible given the price changes over that time period? Example: gas was .96 cents a gallon in 2003. Now let's say it is $3.40. If inflation was around 10% for 20 years, shouldn't it be well over 6 dollars? Gallon of milk 2003: $2.76. Now: let's say $3.00 to take a high. Obviously that is almost flat. This seems to be double of reality. And googling around, that may be for good reason: https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent That was written in 2021, by the way. Are you going to tell me we have had 15% inflation for 2 full years? Come on.
Because inflation isn’t spread evenly across all items evenly. look at higher education, housing and real assets to jump first and soak it up the most. which is also why the top is running always with wealth in America. So in 2003 the cost of a gallon of milk was 2.76 and today it’s 4.35. I don’t think that’s flat especially for those living on the margins. In 2003 average price of ground beef was 2.45 and today average price is 5.70. In 2003 average cost of a new car was 26,000 and the average cost in 2023 is 48,000.
On the milk, I am with you. I see it cheaper but the national index is indeed more like 4.40. On beef, that sounds right but I've been paying 5 dollars for a pound of beef since the mid 2010's (at first only on occasion, then regularly). That was happening well before COVID. With the car, people are buying a LOT more car than they used to. If one controls for that, it isn't nearly the increase. Like we are talking about gallons and pounds for other goods, but not for vehicles which are visibly a lot more "goods" per unit now. And regardless, if you do the math 18 years of 10% and 2 years of 15% would come out way ahead of that 48k figure.
Well, to some extent people don’t have a choice on cars. But in general you’re right. Always weirds me out seeing cars in driveways and thinking “Hmm, either you spent far less than you could have on a house (almost nobody does this) or you absolutely can’t afford the cars in the driveway.” We know which one it is.
Im going of national averages so I’m sure there’s differences. the average car is still the national average of the available technology of time period priced. I have a 2004 f150 and my dad has a new one. Not that far apart on the standard features and what they do, but the difference is in entertainment system and censors for backing up, merging lanes, and auto shut off while at a red light.
I want to be clear that I think we agree on the bottom line effect and lived experience of people, particularly under 40. But I think the "why" is much more complicated than COVID or inflation. Another thing I think about with housing is that the overwhelming trend has been for moving to more urban areas. You mentioned your relative who is having a tough time getting a house but is more educated and a little older than older relatives when they did it. I can say the same for me and my siblings. But I also notice that they either live in Nashville, or me in DC, or in CA, or two who do seasonal jobs and don't have established traditional careers. I think younger generations ARE more educated, and are more concentrated in where they want to live partly because of that such that demand is more concentrated. No one our age is working in middle of nowhere Iowa and struggling to find a house. We are gravitating towards the cities. Because we have to, to make a living because we don't own land and agriculture is pretty much industrialized. There are layers and layers to all of this, I think.
Yes they’re layers but inflation is and will always be a monetary phenomenon. Just pull up the charts on M2 and the CPI
