Tennessee's Chances By Projected Percentages

These are interesting tools.

From The Power Rank: http://thepowerrank.com/visual/NCAA_Tournament_Predictions

Chances of advancing past:
Play-in: 48%
First round: 28.7%
2nd round: 13.5%
SS: 7.1%
EE: 3.1%
FF: 1.4%
One Shining Moment: 0.6%

From Five Thirty Eight (Nate Silver's ESPN spinoff): http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/

Chances of advancing past:
Plain-in: 52%
1st Round: 36%
2nd Round: 12%
SS: 8%
EE: 2%
FF: <1%
One Shining Moment: <<1%

 

Cuonzo will blow it.

 

Iowa gonna win big - they are playing for the coach's kid who has cancer.

 

So you're saying there's a chance...

 

Kenpom (starting at chances to get to rd32):
Tennessee 40.9 20.8 11.9 4.5 2.0 0.9

 

Tennessee by 28.

I just predict the worst possible scenarios at this point.

 

I get you, but what scares me is Iowa by 28 and our coach being retained. That scenario is much more ugly.

 

Agreed.

At that point, they're just flipping us the bird.

 

At least in that scenario, I don't have to give a shit next season as they struggle to get to double digit wins.

 

Meaning we must be heavily favored in this game if we are getting a 40.9 % chance for a game we haven't even arrived at?

 

No, that isn't how this works. They win just enough to make you think there is a chance, then lose. They get hot enough to make you think they may be turning it around, then lose. Martin won't struggle to win 10 games. He will win 17-21 games every year. That is the problem.

 

Kenpom had us at 59% to beat Iowa.

 

So we must be at 65% or so to beat UMass, right?

Honestly, their pressure D concerns me a little bit. We still aren't the best in the way of point guards.

 

73%. He admits his system is overrating Tennessee a bit. But you know he loved that we won that game last night.

 

Nobody outside Knoxville would be happier to see us make a run to the Sweet Sixteen.

 

The Power T I've shaved into my pubic hair begs to differ.