We're Still #1 (until the rankings come out)

Just fulfilling something someone predicted. here is the thread. It has been created.

But I think we remain solidly in striking distance, ahead of both Bama and LSU, as well as Clemson. Tennessee's playoff hopes are alive.

 

If we win out and TCU loses we are a lock.

 

I don’t think it’s a lock we get in over a one loss pac 12 champ. We probably should, but I don’t think it’s a lock.

 

We should absolutely be happy with our record and yes I would have been thrilled to take 8-1 preseason. But in the moment my lust for victory grows insatiable when we have the opportunity to achieve something real.

This hurts worse than losing to Vandy and KY in the Dooley years because I was actively rooting against Tennessee hoping it would wake people the [uck fay] up and rouse revolution. It’s easy to hate people like Butch who take a shit down your throat and ask for gratitude because they didn’t pour cement in your eyeballs. This is a pure case of reality rejecting my deepest desires.

 

yeah boo hoo woe is me first world problems

 

I had forgotten how much losses hurt when you’re good. It’s been awhile.

 

Media push for Oregon to be ranked ahead of us is strong this morning.

I get that they’re playing great ball, but when we both have only 1 loss, to the same opponent, and ours is a slimmer margin and a true road game, I don’t know how you give the edge to Oregon. Not to mention our wins are collectively more impressive than theirs.

TCU ranked ahead of us is fine. I can’t argue against an undefeated P5. But Oregon…

 

I honestly haven’t seen that yet, but I have seen a push for Oregon to move ahead of all the other one-loss teams to #6. Which honestly makes sense to me, and it’s why I worry that they’ll jump us if they beat Utah on the road and shut down a top ten UCLA/USC in Vegas.

 

Florida beat Utah. I can’t get on board with the Utah nonsense.

 

We need IP to put together a blind resume thread. It feels like a very IP thing to do.

 

Utah is at Oregon this year.

But I agree with you, I think if Oregon wins Utah and Pac-12CG by 10+ they jump ahead of us.

 

Florida State beat LSU.

 

Whoops, I had that one mixed up—so their toughest conference games are all at home.

 

LSU has a win over Bama and a 25 point win over Ole Miss. Also a win over fringe top 25 Mississippi State.

Utah beat USC by 3 and has a win over fringe Oregon State.

 

Also, if we really want to get into the weeds, that same Mississippi State team beat Arizona 39-17.

Oregon beat Arizona 49-22.
USC only beat them 45-37.
Utah beat them 45-20.

 

There is much more forgiveness for random losses than you seem to think. If Utah finishes 9-3, with a top ten win and three road losses, two to top ten teams and the third on the last play of the game against a mid-tier SEC team, they will be in the top 15ish and will be considered a quality win.

If USC finishes 11-2 with their only losses on the road to a top 15 team and in the conference championship game, they will be in the top 10ish and will be considered a quality win. If UCLA finishes 10-2 with their only losses to two top ten teams, they will also be top 15 and will be considered a quality win.

And a 12-1 conference champ with three wins over top 15 team and their only loss to the #1 team in the country—even in a blowout—is going to have a strong case for the playoff. Not an ironclad case, but a strong one.

General Pac-12 chaos would help a lot. Oregon losing to Washington or Oregon State would eliminate their best contender, but even random losses but UCLA, USC, or Utah would devalue those potential wins. (In the same way, we are LSU fans against Arkansas and A&M).

 

Pac 12 house of cards.

 

The playoff committee is going to make their logic fit whatever narrative they are pushing. This is why I think it's really imperative for the Pac 12 - and especially Oregon - to lose. They are 1000% going to view a rematch between UGA/Oregon or UGA/1 Loss Pac 12 team as more favorable than a rematch between UGA/UT in the playoffs. Because whether it's warranted or not the better storyline would be what Oregon has done all year after that opening loss to UGA. Now that they are a totally "cohesive unit" and the coach has settled in it's a matchup more people would be interested in.

TCU has to lose, Clemson IMO even has to lose again. I swear I think they would jump back over us if they win the ACC due to their past success. I feel there's a decent chance they'll get beaten again by Louisville this weekend though. And Michigan or OSU either need to lose another game not against one another or their game really needs to be a total blowout. I think this is the year there would be a hell of a chance for the Big 10 to get 2 teams in if OSU/Michigan go undefeated otherwise and have a very close matchup against each other.

I've read a lot of my friends and other boards who think we are still 100% fine and going to make the playoff. I'd lean towards UT honestly needing a ton of help to make it at this point. But for perspective - to even think we would be talking about this - is freaking amazing. So even if we win out and get snubbed in the eyes of most of our fans it's still a great season. The answer may be out there somewhere but what if UGA loses in the SEC title game to LSU? Does LSU get in with 2 losses? Would they have to take LSU over UGA or is the title game basically meaningless for the playoff selection? It would be odd for LSU to beat UGA and then UGA still get in as a #3 or #4 seed and LSU not in at all. And if that was the case then would that really screw UT and put them all the way down to whatever the Citrus Bowl is now and not even in one of the New Year's Day big games?

 

FSU is quietly back in the top 25.

 

Again, whether we like it or not, we really need Bama to win out. UK getting to 8 wins would also be helpful.