The Indy Talks To Himself (NBA) Thread.

Just from that Lakers series, the series was tied 1-1 and in Game 3 he went 33-9-9 on 48% shooting, but the swing game isn't the "game that mattered". Then he went 12/20 with 30-6-5 in the elimination game, but that's not the "game that mattered" either. The game that mattered was Game 4, because we're picking his worst game (with special emphasis on his worst stat from that game) then working backwards from there. But it's not a narrative. Lol

 

You act like I'm pulling the importance of that game out of my ass or something. NBA teams have come back from 3-1 deficits 8 times in NBA history. That's why the game when they were down 2-1 mattered more. It was the game to either even the series or fall into a likely insurmountable hole. And Harden laid an egg.

I've acknowledged his performance in the elimination game, and I've also pointed out that the game wasn't remotely competitive. I'm not impressed by his ability to drop 30 in a game that everyone knew was a foregone conclusion. And he still shot 25% from 3.

And what stat do you want me to emphasize from Game 4? His 21 points from 16/20 FT shooting? lol

 

You guys should just exchange numbers

 

Everyone's? You sure about that? I looked at Kyrie's and LeBron's yesterday, and neither one of theirs looked like Harden's. I can believe it for Curry. People don't hold him accountable for his playoff woes nearly enough, for whatever reason. KD has a Finals MVP or 2, so he gets more of a pass. Feel free to point out any pattern of struggling in big games he had during the height of his powers.

What's recently? I haven't paid any attention to what he's done with the Nets because he was injured. The box score looks okay against the Lakers in 2020, but we've been over that at length. They're not cherrypicked man. They're the pivotal games of his playoff career. Yeah, he beat the Chris Paul Clippers (LOL) after being down 3-1. Cool. Sure, he shot 25% in game 6 with only 23 points and 3 assists... and sure, he only shot 35% from the field and 29% from 3 in game 7 with 7 turnovers. But we will give it to him because they won the series. What happened the next series (WCF)?

3/16 from the field, 1/5 from 3 in game 3 at home while down 2-0. Then 2/11 from the field and 0/3 from 3 in game 5 (elimination game) with 14 points and TWELVE turnovers. You choose to put more stock in his performance against a team that never won jack shit (and even that performance has it's issues). I'm choosing to react more to his disappearing act the same playoffs in the conference finals.

The goalposts aren't moving nearly as much as you claim. Elimination games. Games where he's trying to prevent going down 3-0 or 3-1. Do or die games against the best opponents.

 

Feels like the trade deadline won’t be very exciting this year.

 

Watch Grizzlies. Not Vols

 

To some extent you are. Teams that win Game 3 of a tied series win the series like 75% of the time, which means there's a bigger difference between 1-1 and 2-1 than 2-1 and 3-1, but that still isn't "the game that matters", only Game 4 against a team no one expected them to beat anyway.

CP3 is this big bad playoff performer who radiated leadership and toughness through Houston's entire roster in 2018 and was their real MVP, but the Lob City Clippers (who were very much his team) were a laughingstock to you and beating said big bad playoff performer means nothing. Goalposts running sprints at this point.

To the general point, no, I'm not worried that Harden is "scared of big moments" or some other narrative garbage, which would be the only real difference between him dominating in Game 2 and struggling in Game 6 when both are playoff games. I'm a Duke fan, I'd love Kyrie to be the best player in the NBA but he isn't better than Harden.

 

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-playoffs-notable-numbers-first-round-series-playoff-history

"Teams that win Game 3 of a 1-1 best-of-seven series go on to win the series 73.3% of the time (162-59)... Teams that lead a best-of-seven series 3-1 go on to win the series 95.4% of the time (226-11)."

They call me the village idiot around here, but even I'm smart enough to know that 95.4% > 73.3%. And yeah, 73.3% is still a pretty high number, but the article also says "Teams that win the first game of a best-of-seven series go on to win the series 76.6% of the time (393-120)." So if we are just comparing the percentages straight up, Game 3 of a tied series might be the least important game.

I'm not saying CP3 is a big bad playoff performer, but it's become pretty widely accepted that CP3's intangibles are a huge contributor to a team's overall success, far beyond what a stat sheet shows. It's why he was top 5 in MVP voting last year despite averaging 16 ppg, 10 less than anyone else in the top 5 and 9 less than the leading scorer on his own team. There's a reason the Rockets lost to the Spurs in 6 in 2017 then pushed the Warriors to 7 in 2018, after CP3 arrived.

The Lob City Clippers were always overrated, but not because of CP3. Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan were never as good as people made them out to be. No one was surprised when they failed to make the playoffs the year after CP3 left, and don't try to say it's because they traded Griffin. They were 17-16 with him and 25-24 without him that season.

If Harden wants out, I don't think a trade for Simmons and some other assets would be all that bad for the Nets.

 

I was originally out on firing Vogel, but now I'm starting to wonder. Avery Bradley continuing to get minutes, especially in big moments, has been a bit baffling. Malik Monk hasn't been utilized to nearly the degree he should be. Dude was 8/11 from 3 late in the game yesterday. That's bonkers. How is he not a bonafide starter getting 30 minutes every night?

And then there's THT. I get that he's struggling, but you had a chance to get Kyle Lowry last season and chose not to because you didn't want to give up THT. At this point, you probably just need to play him and let him work through it. Instead, he's gotten less than 20 minutes of action in 3 of the last 4 games.

I think they can make things work with Westbrook, though I still think they should get rid of his contract for next season if they can. If not, a starting 5 of Westbrook, Monk, LBJ, Johnson, and Davis can win you games, and once Kendrick Nunn joins the fold, I don't know if Avery Bradley should be getting any minutes at all.

 

"We ain't ducking no smoke."

 

Ja made it into Nick Wright's Top 10 of his player pyramid. On the same line as Jokic, Kawhi, and Luka.

It's kind of crazy how rapidly he's ascended. He might be the best "young" player in the world right now, though it's hard to take that away from Luka without similarly great playoff performances as supporting evidence. We may get that this season, though.

 

IMO it's Luka until further notice/until he isn't young anymore. Ja is really fun though.

 

Yeah, as far as I’m concerned, you have to go big in the playoffs for me to put you above somebody who has already gone big in the playoffs. And Luka has been unreal in the playoffs already.

 

Thinking back to that previous discussion about Nuggets/Lakers supporting cast…

LeBronless Lakers got 30 and 17 from AD last night, a solid 21-7-7 from Monk, and Westbrook only had 2 turnovers… and they still lost to the Clippers WITHOUT Kawhi or PG13.

It’s almost hard to fathom. Vogel seems to have survived the firing talk, but I’m honestly a little surprised about it. Just pitiful,

 

Keon traded to Portland

 

Tend to agree. Luka showing up for this season out of shape is a red flag. Ja showed up an absolute killer.

If Luka figures out the off-season part of this he'll put up some insane MVP campaigns.

 

That's a great trade for the Clippers. I don't know if Kawhi and PG13 have enough combined star power to get them over the hump, but that looks like a very solid team when they're healthy.

 

Cool story

 

https://theathletic.com/3112818/202...bility-before-the-nba-trade-deadline-sources/

 

There's so much Harden trade chatter right now. Sounds like it's largely based on his recent play. I haven't been watching the Nets, but people are saying he's been completely checked out.

A deal before the deadline would be exciting.