COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

If easing off causes a surge you have to go back. It won’t go to 100% because the rate of people recovering ultimately exceeds the rate of people getting it as the fraction susceptible falls. But we are talking like 60-70% could get it so still high numbers. If R0 is super high that approaches 100%. But all else being equal new cases don’t accelerate cases again because there are already active cases yet they aren’t causing epidemic conditions. It is more nuanced than this but the big point is getting your community to their equilibrium percentage of susceptible people (those that haven’t had it het) but not too fast as not to induce hospital congestion. The issue is the equilibrium level of susceptible people is also a function of R0. So lifting R0 by decreasing social distancing can cause a slower decline or even a flare back up but if done after the first peak it will mitigate that.

However - the big one I can think of is where the summer lowers R0 by decreasing transmissibility. So it dies off prematurely before you’ve reached equilibrium. In that case it will almost assuredly fire up again in the winter - and limiting travel would make a lot of sense.

 

It

it will be his platform for re-election and I think will resonate very well. It is why he calls it the Chinese virus.

 

Yes there are reasons why it won’t scale as root of population density. If transmission is dominated by events like subway traffic or a single grocery store foot traffic then it will fail. I sent it to my buddy and he said viral modelers do apply a similar collision theory model to populations but that the limits are things like I discussed above where it will fail. Matched the data reasonably well in this case.

 

Blood types are one thing that's been mentioned. Smokers and asthmatics supposedly get it worse, too

 

Big Al!!!!!

 

Still hittin' dingers. Kid is going to be fighting it off with that bat in a few years.

 

How mamy 30-40 year olds have died of flu or pneumonia sin january 1?
Just posing a question and dont know the answer but if he there are flu deaths there certainly can be with chinaflu.

 

Bro i never got in a car with sab. Call me whatever you want. Its cool.

 

I finally had time to read this. I see the dance too where if I increase R0 too much (lift too much social distancing) I do see it flare back. However it isn’t near as aggressive as the original unless I do it right as I’m peaking.

One thing that I find weird is my final case counts are very high I assume because I’m maybe not decreasing R0 enough relative to others. But they are peaking sooner than me - which usually means higher R0. So I don’t know how they are getting such low penetration unless they are assuming even less than 50% of the cases are symptomatic.

 

So, that’s the razor-thin difference - he could have had a cold and she didn’t?

I’m not challenging you, I’m asking.

 

He might have gotten an opportunistic bacterial infection that didn’t rev up to dangerous levels until after his discharge.

 

He calls it the China Flu because it originated in China, China lied about it, China selfishly tried to hide and subdue it, China “disappeared” anyone who tried to tell the truth about it, China incompetently tried and subsequently failed to contain it, China then continued to lie about it so as to save some embarrassment.

The whole world has this because China.
The United States has this because China.
People around the globe are dying because of China.
Americans are dying because of China.
The world economy is tanking to the point of threatening anarchy because of China.

We’re all sitting at home because of China.

Kids are out of school because China.

People are out of work because China.

March Madness was cancelled because of China.

Baseball was cancelled because China.

The NBA was cancelled because China.

Spring Practice was cancelled because of China.

Football will likely be cancelled because of China.

The summer will likely be cancelled because of China.

That’s why it’s called the China Flu, and damned rightfully so.

[uck fay] China.

And [uck fay] anyone who doesn’t want to call this - and them - what they are.

 

I’m not so sure China could have contained this. Could definitely have handled it way better and given us more time. Probably could have squeezed in March Madness.

 

So, one of the nerds check me here:

1. We don’t have any proven therapeutics that are proven to stop China Flu.

2. We’re not going to have widespread testing for China Flu for several weeks, at the most optimal projections.

3. We’re still months - maybe years - away from a vaccine for China Flu, if even then.

4. The China Flu will infect the majority of people and “peak” before cases will begin falling and the most imminent risks will have passed via herd immunity.

5. We don’t know who has the China Flu, or who may have had it.

6. We do not accurately know who has already had and recovered from the China Flu.

7. We do not accurately know who had the China Flu and subsequently died from it, but without being officially confirmed as having it.

8. We do not know for certain how the China Flu spreads, who is infectious or not, or to what extent is has / not already spread.

9. We’re only quarantined / social distancing because it (somewhat)(hopefully) keeps the China Flu from spreading so rapidly beyond the “peak” as to overwhelm the healthcare’s system ability to cope with those suffering with China Flu.

10. Until we have widespread medicines / vaccines and/or more people have it than not, the situation won’t appreciably change, and all of the rest of this stuff is just educated guessing / wishful thinking.

11. The WHO & CDC are farcically inept.

12. The CDC didn’t tell people not to wear masks because it was ineffective, but because everyone was buying up masks and they wanted them to go to healthcare workers, instead.

13. We don’t even know if recovering from the China Flu is permanent, long-lasting or provides any immunity from further infections, later.

Have I nailed all of the pertinent facts as it relates to the China Flu pandemic?

I welcome correction and education.

 

Nevermind the fact that China has slowly killed main street/mom & pop USA. Our great reward from them for enriching the CCP.

 

I already said “[uck fay] China”.

 

Maybe they could stop eating every [uck fay]ing animal on the planet, as we’ve long known that their doing so was eventually going to allow some animal disease to jump to humans, as it has previously and continues to do.

Or maybe we stop letting them manufacture 99% of the world’s shit, seeing as how it’s being done and shipped to us straight out of the middle of their pangolin with bat and dog soup-eating shit hole? I can’t think of a more perfect recipe for a global pandemic, than this. Can anyone else?

Does this make me xenophobic? An isolationist? Or just someone with basic common [uck fay]ing sense?

 

So we’re going to use this national emergency to take military action against Mexican drug cartels?

 

No, none of this stereotyped filled diatribe characterizing an entire group of people and their country as a "shit hole" is in any way xenophobic or anything of the sort. They are also the only country, including ours, which eats animals carrying destructive diseases for humans. Not chickens, cows, pigs.....

 

Over 1,000 deaths today.