COVID-19 (artist formerly known as Wuhan strain novel Corona virus)

Nothing about this surprises me. Nothing.

 

Gotlieb says we should be able to hit 100 MM vaccinated Americans by the end of March with the addition of J&J. I think he’s loosely calling someone a vaccinated American someone who has at least one shot of any vaccine based on the context of his math in the interview. Regardless, that’s hitting the 100 MM mark on Day 71 of Biden’s administration. Some of those 100 MM were delivered before Jan 20, but it’s clear we are on a solid trajectory to exceed the 100 MM in 100 days and in those last 30 days in April it sounds like we’ll be able to achieve a high rate of vaccination and push this past 150 MM.

 

There isn't any logical reason for all these screw ups.

The timing was off, as I'm sure there were excess doses from SCS. But folks should have been trying to get them around 5:30 pm rather than 11 am.

The director of department of health resigning at least recognizes some level of incompetence that should be done better.

But seems like now is the time for the health department to shine.

 

Johnson & Johnson going to have to get to producing. I think last week they only had 20 million or so available to ship.

 

Yeah I think Gotlieb said they’d do 20 Mm over the next 4-5 weeks, pushing us up to 100 MM. sounds like they’ll do 3-4 a week (including 3-4 shipped next week).

 

First doses of the RNA vaccines were not able to hold at 900k-1 MM doses a day. As second doses rose, first fell to meet it at around 750 MM/day. So for now that’s our full vaccination rate. Maintain that and you’ll have 20 MM (J&J) + 25 MM (completed second doses of mRNA) + 25 MM (first doses of mRNA) by the end of March.

Youyang Gu estimates we currently have about 22 MM fully vaccinated individuals. Add 45 MM more full vaccinations by the end of March and we are at 67 MM full plus 25 MM partial (assuming no additional ramp). Gotlieb seems to think we will speed up some in March. We’ll be at 133 MM full vaccinations by the end of April if we keep current pace and J&J can deliver another 20 MM in April (have no idea id they’ll be able to do that though).

If you take the estimates that we’ve had about 95 MM infections to-date, we’ll easily be over 105 MM by end of April. Add to that 133 MM full vaccinations. Assuming 25% of people who’ve had a vaccine had already had the virus, that’s an immune population of 212 MM. That’s 2/3 of the US by end of April.

 

And, I just read that mRNA dose delivery is supposed to double in March (no specifics, just a tweet that Gotlieb ‘liked’). If that’s true, we’ll be at something closer to 85 MM fully vaccinated individuals by the end of March amd another 40 MM or do with their first mRNA dose.

 

That's pretty amazing seeing as fewer than half the population get a yearly flu vaccine.

I thought we'd be struggling to find people to vaccinate by 100 million.

 

At some point we’ll saturate readily available demand and then we’ll see what pace we maintain. But the 65+ crowd is still having a hard time getting appointments so there is lent up demand. I also expect 55+ vaccination capture to be relatively good.

Then it might actually become about politics. I don’t know what fraction of the country under 55 are democrats, but in general democrats claim they will take the vaccine at a higher rate. I would expect overall polling is skewed by older republicans saying yes. I’d say the under 50 crowd will skew very heavily to pre-existing conditions and politics.

 

Logic has never been Memphis\Shelby county strongest suit.

You are right, this should never happen, but I'm not surprised it did.

 

This isn't Memphis, this is the county. They aren't the same. That's part of the problem.

County has to deal with Memphis government, Collierville government, Germantown government, Bartlett government, Arlington, Cordova and Lakeland residents.

And nobody wants to be on the same page.

 

we have become one of best nations in responding to this now. or at least will be soon at this rate

 

Only Israel, UAE, and the UK have delivered more doses per 100 people than the US. When you consider the size of the US, it is some incredible numbers.

Just as interesting to me is how poorly Canada is moving.

 

Yes, it’s really quite stunning how bad they are right now.

It’s like they gambled that Trump would win and shut them out, so they went elsewhere to buy vaccines when they could have had a plan in place to buy from is.

 

Oh, that's factored into my equation. I get it's not an either or. It's a total cluster.

 

The city took over distribution a few days ago, and it is looking to be better.

We'll see if that holds up, but they can't be worse, unless their plan is to dump it in the Mississippi.

 

*insert Larry David Curb Your Enthusiasm gif here*

 

Well, I guess everybody can move up one space in line for a vaccine now...

 

Grats? I'm sorry?

 

I'm not sure which yet. I think I may have mild shortness of breath? But it started right after I got the positive test back, so it definitely could be psychosomatic. And it was rapid response due to potential close contact yesterday, but obviously I already had it prior to yesterday for it to show positive today. Or it's a false positive. If it doesn't get any worse, I may do a PCR just to see if it was real.