Early Look at the Playoff Picture (October 16, 2022)

For what it's worth

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-college-football-predictions/

 

If Tennessee beats UK, the % will double.

 

Well, no, that would imply that Tennessee has a 50% chance to beat Kentucky, when it is actually above 80.
Assuming 538's model is good, if Tennessee beats UK, the numbers go from 15% SEC champ, 37% playoff, 8% National Champ up to 17%, 43%, 9%.

 

I was referring to the playoff chance. And we will hopefully see.

 

Go Cuse

 

Ole miss does not look good enough to hang with Bama. Unless something happens to young, they surely win out.

 

Looks like UCLA will fall. Syracuse fell.

Clemson looks like a team that takes a spot and just gets boat raced while some people pretend to be surprised as cover for a spot being wasted.

 

Notre Dame could do us a real solid if their D shows up next week. Clemson’s offense isn’t great, it’s just that the only team they’ve played who could actually score was also the only team they’ve played that couldn’t defend worth a damn. Not that Notre Dame can score either, but you can get Clemson into a slug fight where a few turnovers could turn the tide.

 

JG2 at Clemson got benched over a JG uesque turnover inside the Syracuse 5. Ga, bama, UT all beat Clemson 8/10

 

Clemson supposedly has a DL that was supposed to be the best in the country but has been baffling a lot of injuries. If they get healthy and figure things out, that should be a problem. But their offense can’t really score with any of the top five unless they can neutralize a good offense in a way that really hasn’t been done much this year.

 

Bama has consecutive road games with LSU and Ole Miss, who are also their two closest challengers. Neither are especially close, but Bama probably has to win both, because either one would be favored to go 6-2 or better if they get that upset (I keep forgetting that LSU only has one SEC loss). Winning two 80% games isn’t the hardest thing in the world, but it’s no guarantee either (I say while thinking of our 80-85% games against Kentucky and South Carolina).

 

Really needed Syracuse to help us out there. Maybe UNC in their championship game.

 

Seems like those three could do 4/5

 

For safety net purposes, Clemson needs to lose.

 

I can’t get enough of the train wreck that is VolsPix

 

Their schedule isn’t exactly murderer’s row. Notre Dame, South Carolina…UNC? But they’re vulnerable.

 

What the [uck fay] is wrong with this person?

 

I think my favorite part is a bit further down the thread he is like “everyone can see this crap” like he isn’t on an island totally alone

 

This Alabama team looks pretty legit. Any team that beats them must be really good.

 

Didn’t really think TCU was serious, but…TCU isn’t serious.