Early Look at the Playoff Picture (October 16, 2022)

As of the middle of October, there are 9 undefeated teams. They are all P5 teams. I don't think an undefeated P5 team will be left out in favor of a team with a loss.

That being said, there can be no more than 5 undefeated teams at the end of the season:

• 1 SEC team- UGA and Tennessee play, and then if Ole Miss stays undefeated they would play the winner in the SEC championship.
• 1 B1G team- Ohio State and Michigan will play each other.
• 1 ACC team- Clemson and Syracuse will play each other.
• 1 Big 12 team- TCU is the lone unbeaten.
• 1 PAC 12 team- UCLA is the lone unbeaten.

Should TCU or UCLA lose, it would greatly increase Tennessee's playoff chances tolerating a loss to Georgia or in the SEC championship.

The most painful scenario would be a Tennessee loss to UGA and then Bama running the table and winning the SEC championship. Then we would have conceivably FOUR 1 loss SEC teams and another 4 undefeated P5 teams.

So let's hope some non-SEC unbeatens get clipped, because that four 1-loss SEC teams scenario seems entirely plausible.

 

Basically cheering against Clemson every week right now. TCU and UCLA have a tough row to hoe, and I’m not deluded enough to think the OSU/Michigan winner isn’t going to the playoff regardless. But Clemson will be favored in every game from here on out but probably needs to stay unbeaten to be ahead of a potential 11-1 UT.

 

The issue is that there are potentially going to be a lot of 1-loss teams. Unless this field gets cut down, I don't like an 11-1 Tennessee's chances of making the playoffs. Maybe 12-1, but not 11-1.

 

Television will want Tennessee's offense in the playoffs

 

I already do that

 

Tennessee in the playoffs would be free money for ESPN for the ratings it would bring.

 

If Tennessee were to make the SEC title game at 12-0, they’re practically a lock to make the playoff, regardless of the outcome. The nightmare scenario would be dropping the game to UGA, then Bama beating UGA in the title game. That would most likely mean Tennessee is getting left out in favor of Bama, UGA, Clemson, and the B10 champion. I don’t think that that UCLA or TCU are making it through undefeated, which pretty much eliminates both of those conferences.

 

I know better than to think it wouldn’t happen but it would be egregious.

 

You can see it a few different ways, but the point is that 1 loss may be 1 too many. For now.

 

If we lose to UGA, and they lose to 1-loss Bama in the SEC championship, I’d like to think it would come down to “how” UGA lost to Bama and “how” UT lost to UGA. A close loss to UGA in Athens should be a more valuable loss than a multiple score loss to Bama in a neutral site SEC Championship game.

If we lose close to UGA in Athens, and they run the table heading into the playoff, everyone will have them #1. And if our only loss is a close loss to #1 on the road, it will be hard to not include us.

If we beat UGA and lose to Bama in the SEC Championship game, then I don’t know what happens. Hard to see people putting UGA in over us if we beat them in Athens and have a regular season win over Bama. If, of course, they’re doing things the way they should be.

 

I still expect the Big 12 to be a bloodbath—would be surprised if their champ doesn’t have two losses. The Pac-12 also could easily produce a two-loss champ—UCLA still has Oregon, USC, and a potential Pac-12 title game on the slate.

We need to be competitive with Georgia. If we lose, we need them to win the SECCG. If we win, we need to be competitive in the SECCG. But if so, you’re looking at the Big Ten Champ, SEC Champ, probably undefeated Clemson, one-loss Tennessee, and one-or-two loss Pac-12 champ (which could even be a team that lost by 40 to Georgia). I don’t hate our chances at all there.

A lot has to happen—at least three of (1) UCLA losing, (2) Clemson losing, (3) the Big 12 being a bloodbath, (4) the SEC not producing more than two zero/one-loss teams. But those things aren’t crazy to expect. Do our part and see how it shakes out. Or, you know, beat Georgia and take it out of their hands.

 

How far we have come in a month! "7-5 or 8-3?" to "What's our playoff scenarios?"

It has been so [uck fay]ing long.

 

This isn't his best roster, either

 

I slept on it and still don't know why you guys think they'd favor tennessee over an equal Michigan or Ohio state.

 

Go back to sleep.

 

Can't, I must work.

 

I think we match up against UGA better than we did against Bama, too. Stetson Bennett IV isn't Bryce Young, not by a mile.

 

TV ratings

 

Georgia gets called for defensive pass interference, it's going to be a game.

 

Michigan and Ohio State generate big ratings too, and in a different footprint than Bama/UGA/Tennessee