#1 Ranked Vols?

I look forward to every game, too. From last year to this one, they’re all must-watch games, and that’s not always been the case.

In fact, I’m happy to concede that it’s entirely possible that my concerns are nothing more than the product of my ignorance of basketball + only recently watching every minute.

But still, the difference between Tennessee and those other teams is, to me and my ignorant eyes, is obviously and consistently noticeable.

Hence, my trying to pinpoint it in this thread.

 

Too many skilled players today imo. Id rather play sag man help D on 4 and ball deny the 1

 

I’ll be at that game. Go ahead and mark it down for a loss.

 

Sure is fun to get butterflies. To stand up in the den over and over with a fist pump or fake getting the crowd up. To feel the heat come off my head when we went down 6 to Vandy and my BP rocketing. Into it like happens 2 or 3 times in my life. Have to take a walk or a smoke and dont smoke.
#1. What a [uck fay]ing ride

 

Good chance we take an L tomorrow.

 

All of this.

 

For all those concerned with the defense, I agree there are times it’s not looked great but let me present a statistical comparison to last year’s team.

2018 - 92.4 AdjD rating
2019 - 93.3 AdjD rating

That’s a difference of less than one point per 100 possessions against the average D1 offense. Further, the poor showings against Arkansas, Alabama, and Vandy all came following double digit leads. I would suggest that the biggest defensive issue (other than switching into mismatches against Vandy) is remaining engaged with a lead.

At the end of the day, tournament success comes down to a combination of match-ups and luck. For example, I’d much rather play UVA than FSU even though FSU is the weaker team. FSU has a bunch of dudes with 7’+ wingspans to throw at Grant. Meanwhile, UVA immediately doubles the post every time they touch the ball. Go watch the first 5 minutes of the second half against Kansas to see how poorly that works against us.

 

Great post above. I played against a guy named Jim Barton. Went on to ivy league and led country in ft shooting, shooting a jump shot. Absolute deadly from 3 against anybody.
Poster above. Jmbarton, coincedence?

 

Pure coincidence. Unfortunately, my jumper only got me a few minutes off the bench of my freshman team.

 

We don't look like the best team in the country night in and night out, but I don't think anyone does this year.

 

3-point percentage defense is also notoriously unreliable and subject to streakiness. There's a lot of writing on the subject, but I think KenPom kicked off the discussion with a series of posts back in 2012: https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

The long and short of it is that if you have a few opponents in a row shoot really well (or really badly) from beyond the arc, it's probably not your defense. More likely, it's random variation, more like free throw defense than like anything else--it will ebb and flow throughout the season, but it's not really in your defense's control. The thing you can control? Not giving your opponent the opportunity to take a lot of threes.

So basically, we shouldn't worry too much about Vandy making almost half their threes, Petty making 60% of his, etc. However, we might should worry a little about our last five opponents taking 43% of their shots against us from three, with the national average in the high 30s (although, OTOH, that number is driven by Florida and Alabama jacking up a ridiculous number of threes--WVU and Vandy actually attempted fewer threes than they usually do)

 

It was exactly this fear which prevented my taking my boys to Vandy last week.

 

And, I’ll add this thought, which I also believe:

Any team that faces Tennessee on a night when we’re committed to playing D, and all of our scorers are actively involved is going to take a monumental ass-whipping.

 

Really think Tennessee's main problem is dedication to defense and defensive rebounding. I dislike Pons getting lost on ball screens and zones and Grant falling for every pump fake, too.

 

For instance, Lamonte played lockdown, aggressive defense on Saturday. He did not just learn that overnight.

 

Thr majority of lost offensive weapons seem to be on pons. Or leaving a corner shooter to try and swat a ball from a player that has taken himself away from a shot option due to being behind rhe backboard.

 

I truly enjoy everyone's stats and theories, but from where I sit, I'm convinced this gonna be the best damn UT BB team in my lifetime.
Just on the February ride, enjoying all the ups and probably some of the downs to come, and waiting for March to begin.
I don't think they're there yet but if we can see a peak starting at the SECT, it's gonna me nuts.

 

I can understand feeling like Tennessee is vulnerable, but there is no way to argue that Tennessee doesn't look as good as any other team in the country. The one loss was to a full-power Kansas in OT.

 

This team is built for a tournament run. Being a 1 would be great, but we are perfectly capable of making a run no matter where we land.

 

I think getting a 1 would be a tall order. The end of the regular season is absolutely brutal. I think we would have to go 31-3 and win the SEC tournament to guarantee a 1 seed.