I see a lot of prognostications as to how we’ll do next season, and with the consensus seemingly being that 6-6 / 7-5, or basically making a bowl, will constitute a successful season. Obviously, coaches don’t simply get fired for no reason, but because of major problems and/or deficiencies in the program, and Tennessee is no exception to that general rule. That Pruitt inherited a struggling and underperforming Tennessee team from Jones is so self-evident as to be inarguable. And it’s also true that Pruitt also lost other key members via early exits to the NFL. But all of that being said and fully considered, my question is - how bare is the cupboard, really, and not simply compared to the historical Tennessee standard, or only to Alabama and UGA, but to each and every team on its schedule? For example, let’s say that Tennessee has a sizable gap in talent between themselves and Alabama and UGA - so does every other team in America - and what does “sizable” mean? And let’s say that the talent gap between Tennessee and those two is just as bad / wide as we imagine....that’s only two teams / losses on the 12-game schedule. But is it that wide against WVU? South Carolina? Vandy? And even if you assume that Tennessee hasn’t less talent than 5 teams on its schedule, is it inconceivable that some disparity shouldn’t be overcome by coaching? How much of a gap in talent will Pruitt’s first Tennessee team have, when compared to other teams on their schedule? Is a 6-6/ 7-5 expectations too low, given what Pruitt’s actually got on this team, and the schedule before us?
1. I have no idea, personally. Hence, the question. 2. I have no reason to doubt / question that you do know. So, accepting that truth, if Pruitt is going into 9 of 12 games with a talent advantage, why have so many seemingly accepted a 6-6/7-5 record as being most likely, and in turn acceptable, particularly as that would necessarily mean that he’s going to lose 2-3 games to teams with inferior talent? I’m not angling toward any preconceived conclusion, or really even toward some unstated argument, here. Just taking a look at what seems to be general perception versus reality. It’s entirely possible that Tennessee does have more talent than 9 of the teams on its schedule, but it’s so razor thin as to be a toss-up. It’s also possible that Tennessee is more talented across the board overall, but that other factors will go against us, and which will singularly or collectively work to negate and render it meaningless (e.g. thin secondary, injuries on the D-line, overall playing experience, more road games, etc.).
There is probably more to a good football team than talent and the presence of a competent coach. There's chemistry. There's also the "getting it factor." It is one of those things where the sum can be greater or lesser than ita parts due to human factors. That being said, I am a little bullish. We will know a lot after the first game.
The 2018 Schedule (bold at HOME): DATE OPPONENT Sept. 1 vs. West Virginia (Charlotte) Sept. 8 EAST TENNESSEE STATE Sept. 15 UTEP Sept. 22 FLORIDA Sept. 29 at Georgia Oct. 6 Open Date Oct. 13 at Auburn Oct. 20 ALABAMA Oct. 27 at South Carolina Nov. 3 UNC-CHARLOTTE Nov. 10 KENTUCKY Nov. 17 MISSOURI Nov. 24 at Vanderbilt
I totally agree. Hell, throw blind luck in there, too, as it will decide some games, too. Talent is merely one of many factors which will determine who wins and loses, for sure. But talent is, IMO, the most solid means to base expectations on, as it’s likely the most known and predictable aspect of the game. Can teams with vastly inferior talent beat teams with far superior talent? Of course, as it happens every week. But that’s the exception and not the rule, as more talented teams consistently beat less talented teams, and by a wide margin. So, saying one team has more talent than another isn’t a foolproof method of predicting all success, and in every game, but it’s much more likely to be consistently correct, than not. That’s all I’m saying, and why I’m focusing on that.
I think that Tennessee’s talent discrepancy to both Alabama and UGA easily puts us down 14 points before we even step off the bus. It doesn’t mean that Tennessee can’t win either or both of those games, whether it occurs by our playing above our heads, those teams playing below their potential, a couple of lucky breaks here and there, etc. But I think that it’s the collective belief in our sizable talent disadvantage which lies at the heart of why we so immediately and instinctively believe that such is very, very unlikely to occur. Talent isn’t the only factor, but it’s almost certainly to be the one which is most important, and indicative of prospective success and/or failure.
Strength and development has been so bad that we essentially don’t have any upperclassmen. Pruitt has 80 supposedly talented freshmen and Tre Smith.
Big difference between raw talent and developed talent. Raw talent wise? I think we're equal or above most. Developed talent wise? We'll see how good the staff is.
I think he should get to 7 wins. He's changing the entire culture and he's got an actual S&C program. There will be a "learning period". Pruitt and his staff have, I believe 11 national championships on their combined resumes. They know how to win and they getting a half way decent roster to start out with. He's got a lot of talent at LB, the DL isn't in too bad of shape, the RBs will have capable guys and WR is pretty good. The OL and the QBs are weak, which is where you can't really afford to be weak at. CB is also a gigantic question mark too. The roster was not developed for shit under Butch and there's some bad match ups for a shitty defensive backfield on the schedule (Mizzou, WVU and South Carolina are the big 3 there). I'm expecting a loss to someone Tennessee shouldn't lose to and win no one expects.
Bama, AU, and UGA are all likely losses. Lose 1 or 2 of USCe, Mizzou, UF, WVU The rest should be wins. 7-5 is about right. 8-4 would be a really good season.
I guess I just don’t know what we’ve really got. At least 6 wins ought to be there though, a couple of bounces and last year’s dumpster fire ends up with 6
Tennessee has two NFL linebackers in Kirkland and Bituli, a guy who's a perfect fit for a 3-4 edge rusher in Taylor, an NFL safety in Warrior, a few good Dlinemen, an NFL WR in Callaway and a great RB in Chandler. I think there's 5 or 6 NFL guys on the roster today. Dominick Wood-Anderson, who's enrolling tomorrow, is a very good JUCO TE.
I think we can get the OL to be serviceable. All gonna depend on QB for the offense. We are solid everywhere else. On D, I feel like there's talent, but just gonna depend on how quick we get up to speed on the new system.
